Episode summary
Q1 Market Recap: How Private Credit, AI, & War Have Dominated 2026 So Far | The Weekly Wrap
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · 24 min · Hosts: Steve Eisman
Summary
Steve Eisman argues that Q1 2026 was driven by three overlapping shocks: the Iran war, rising rates, and mounting stress in private capital. He says the ceasefire announcement briefly crushed oil prices and lifted the S&P, but the market will keep trading war headlines until the conflict is truly settled. He also says the quarter exposed how badly software and private equity were damaged by AI fears and by overexposure to software deals.
On private equity, Eisman says the asset class grew rapidly because opacity helped institutions report smoother volatility and better Sharpe ratios than public markets. On private credit, he highlights a wave of alarming redemption requests at Blue Owl and Carlyle, plus negative outlook changes from Moody’s, but notes that widening spreads may make future lending opportunities more attractive. He points to Blackstone’s $10 billion opportunistic credit fund and Goldman’s more than $10 billion of commitments as signs that institutional demand remains strong.
For the quarter, he says the S&P 500 fell 4% and the Nasdaq 7%, with energy the standout winner and financials the worst sector. He also revisits Meritage Homes, saying he still owns it and thinks patience can pay off, but higher rates would hurt performance.
Key takeaways
- Eisman says the Iran war, not just the ceasefire, drove oil and rate volatility and pushed the S&P down 4% for Q1.
- He argues private equity’s reported low volatility is misleading because opacity creates a false Sharpe ratio benefit.
- He says Blue Owl’s OCIC saw 21.9% redemption requests and Carlyle’s CTAC saw 16%, showing real stress in private credit.
- Eisman says AI is hitting software valuations by threatening seat growth and pricing power; the software group’s P/Es have been cut in half.
- He still likes Meritage Homes long term, but says rising rates would hurt the stock even if the buyback helps over time.
Notable quotes
“The combination of higher oil prices and increasing interest rates was just too much. The S&P closed the quarter down 4% and NASDAQ closed down 7%”
“For the first time in decades, the pees for software stocks are lower than the market multiple. The group has been humbled”
“There is no question that every one of those transactions is underwater and probably by a lot”
“These redemption levels are unheard of. Also this week, Carlilele's flagship private credit fund, the Carlilele Tactical Private Credit Fund, CTAC, with 7 billion in assets got a 16% redemption notice”
“Just because you don't get a daily price does not mean that the asset class is less volatile. It just appears to be less volatile”
How the episode opens
Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the straight of Hormuz. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere.
The combination of higher oil prices and increasing interest rates was just too much. The S&P closed the quarter down 4% and NASDAQ closed down 7%. For the first time in decades, the pees for software stocks are lower than the market multiple.
The group has been humbled. Private equity went on a buying binge of software companies and now the private equity sector is buried in software. There is no question that every one of those transactions is underwater and probably by a lot.
Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of the weekly rap. This is for the week ending April 10, 2026, but recorded Thursday night, April 9. On this rap, we will discuss the following.
The war in Iran. Two, a short primer on reasons for private equities growth. Three, some more bad news on private credit and some actual good news, too.
Four, a summary of the first quarter and an analysis of how various sectors performed. And finally, I will also address comments from three viewers. So, let's get started.
Iran news. Iran, of course, remains of paramount importance to the global markets. Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to blow up Iran's infrastructure and gave a deadline of Tuesday night.
At the last minute, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and Iran pledged to reopen the straight of Hormuz. On this news, oil prices collapsed, declining by over 15% and the S&P closed up 2.5%. We will see if the ceasefire leads anywhere.
Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that the Iran ceasefire is a quote fragile truce.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- private credit
- private equity
- q1 market recap
- ai
- iran ceasefire
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MTH
- Meritage Homes
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
