Episode summary
How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market? ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann | U Got Options | Ep.13
Top Traders Unplugged
· · 1 hr 10 min · Hosts: Cem Karsan, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen · Guests: Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Summary
Christian Mueller-Glissmann argues that the 2026 market regime has been reshaped by the AI capex boom, which has lifted nominal growth, supported equities through earnings revisions, and complicated the bond market. He sees the key tension as innovation versus inflation: AI spending has created a midcycle-style acceleration, but higher energy prices, persistent fiscal pressure, and higher yields are now acting as a speed limit on stocks.
On AI itself, he says the market is moving from an investment phase into an application phase, and that the near-term story is less about obvious productivity gains than about whether companies can monetize all that spend. He thinks this is not a valuation bubble in the classic sense, but more likely an earnings bubble in parts of the market, with current profits still supported by capex and depreciation dynamics that may take time to unwind.
He also thinks dispersion is unusually high and equity volatility looks cheap relative to rates and credit. That makes portfolio construction more important: he favors diversification, selective duration exposure, and real assets such as gold as geopolitical and inflation risks rise. On his view, the bond market is becoming a tougher partner for equities, especially as refinancing, leverage, and ongoing issuance collide with higher yields.
Key takeaways
- Christian Mueller-Glissmann thinks AI is still in the investment phase, so near-term earnings gains are real but may not yet reflect durable productivity growth.
- He says the market is more likely in an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, because current profits are being supported by cyclical capex dynamics rather than pure multiple expansion.
- He argues the bond market is becoming the speed limit for equities as higher yields start to pressure rate-sensitive parts of the market.
- He sees equity volatility as cheap versus credit, rates, and commodities, making calls and other convexity tools attractive for portfolio protection.
- He thinks diversification matters more now because dispersion is extreme and home bias, real assets, and gold may help manage geopolitical and inflation risk.
Notable quotes
“We would say we're certainly not in a valuation bubble. We are more likely to be a bit in an earnings bubble”
“timing geopolitical risk and timing the market response around geopolitical risk is very difficult”
How the episode opens
Welcome back to You Got Options from the SIBO floor brought to you by Top Traders Unplugged and Kaiwa. Today we get to talk to Christian Mueller Glisten from Goldman Sachs. Incredible wide ranging conversation dealing with everything from are we in a bubble?
Are the earnings real and sustainable in the market? Do do valuations on a bond basis make sense at this point? What's the role of volatility in a portfolio?
And are we likely at this point to need to look at ball a little bit more than we had been in pre previous periods? Lastly, where are we going with the bond market and the speed limit of 6040? Is this a time to be watchful and prepared for debasement?
I think you're going to really enjoy this one. The game gig. Welcome to another episode of You Got Options here at the SIBO floor.
Today I get Christian Mueller Glyman from Goldman Sachs. He's the head of asset allocation research there. Uh we have talked once before quite quite a while ago.
Incredible conversation last time. Can't wait to chat again today. Uh welcome Christian.
Thanks for having me Cham. Looking forward as well.
So I want to start out today um with a couple concepts you have uh very recently kind of been talking about which is how the bond market um has really been kind of is becoming the speed limit of uh the equity market. and this concept of broadly kind of innovation versus inflation. There's really this tension between these the bond market and the stock market and what's happening.
If you wouldn't mind maybe take us through a little bit of of kind of how you're thinking about this moment we're in in terms of uh growth versus inflation etc.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai boom
- bond market yields
- earnings sustainability
- equity volatility
- geopolitical risk
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- Goldman Sachs
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Top Traders Unplugged
-
What Investors Get Wrong About Trend Following | Philippe Jordan | Top Traders Unplugged | Ep. 154 -
Why It May Take a Crisis to Change the System feat. Cem Karsan | Systematic Investor | Ep.425 -
What If Lower Volatility Is the Wrong Goal | Open Interest | Ep.25 -
Can Your Portfolio Survive the AI Hangover? ft. Alan Dunne | Systematic Investor | Ep.424 -
What Buffett Saw in Japan That Investors Missed | Global Macro | Ep.109 -
Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race | Mark Rzepczynski | Systematic Investor | Ep.423
Top Traders Unplugged, this episode and its artwork belong to Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
