Episode summary
Berkshire Hathaway, Moody's, & BellRing Brands | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP795)
We Study Billionaires
· · 1 hr 17 min · Hosts: Stig Brodersen · Guests: Tobias Carlisle, Hari Ramachandra
Summary
The host opens by pitching Berkshire Hathaway as a fortress-like conglomerate whose appeal is shifting from Buffett himself to the durability of its culture, balance sheet, and capital allocation. The discussion centers on Greg Abel’s succession, Berkshire’s huge cash and treasury position, and the idea that the stock is less about explosive growth than about preserving capital, with one guest estimating a roughly 10% normalized return and potential downside protection versus the S&P 500.
Tobias Carlisle then pitches BellRing Brands, arguing that the protein-nutrition business is much cheaper than its fundamentals justify after falling from around $80 to about $17. He emphasizes Premier Protein’s brand awareness, distribution, asset-light economics, and strong free cash flow, while acknowledging the risks from customer concentration, leverage, competition, and changing consumer tastes. He sees the selloff as an overreaction and thinks the business could attract private equity or benefit from continued buybacks.
Hari Ramachandra pitches Moody’s as a high-quality toll-bridge business with a regulatory moat, duopoly economics, and a growing analytics segment. He argues that AI is a real but limited risk mainly for the analytics business, while the core ratings franchise remains protected by regulation and market structure. Even with valuation concerns, he frames Moody’s as a durable compounder with meaningful upside if earnings keep growing and the multiple only partially compresses.
Key takeaways
- The host and guests see Berkshire Hathaway less as a high-growth story and more as a capital-preservation vehicle with a likely lower-volatility profile than the market.
- One guest estimates Berkshire can still deliver about a 10% normalized return, but says growth is slowing and cash deployment will get harder.
- Tobias Carlisle argues BellRing Brands is too cheap at roughly $17, citing an 11% free cash flow yield, strong distribution, and brand strength.
- Hari Ramachandra says Moody’s still benefits from a regulatory moat and oligopoly structure, even though AI may pressure the analytics segment.
- Both BellRing and Moody’s are presented as businesses with strong economics but different valuation and risk tradeoffs.
Notable quotes
“It continues to surprise me how long high quality companies can continue to compound”
“I think the valuation is way too low for the quality of the business”
“they essentially have to pay one of the credit rating agencies in order for them to have issue their bonds”
How the episode opens
(00:00) It continues to surprise me how long high quality companies can continue to compound. They're priced at 30 times plus price to earnings and then they just continues to give you double digits returns and it's so difficult for at least for me to invest in those companies because they always look expensive. (00:20) But the best companies they just tend to always look expensive and they still outperform and it's so painful.
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Welcome to the Investors Podcast. (00:46) I'm your host Dick Broen and today I'm here with my friends and fellow investors Tobias and Hari. How are you today, Jens?
Hey, Stig. Hey, Harry. Good to see you.
Good to see both of you guys. Yeah, good to see you both. Thank you for having us today.
It's always great and and with Burkshire coming up, you know, I can't help but pitch it. I know that's not an unknown gem. I know it's sort of like a bit of I feel like it's a cliche.
(01:08) I mean, we're talking about a company that's more than a trillion dollars in market cap. And I guess everyone knows it, especially followers of this podcast would know it. Toby's podcast for sure as well.
So, so why am I talking about Brixie Haway? I should probably do the whole disclaimer thing first. I am long bricksway myself.
Uh, surprise surprise. (01:28) And I added this recently as January 22nd. So, I have all the biases you can possibly imagine.
Anyways, I'm still going to pitch it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- berkshire valuation
- insurance cashflow
- moody's regulatory moat
- bellring free cash flow
- stock pitch bull vs bear cases
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BRK-B
- MCO
- BRBR
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Moody's
- BellRing Brands
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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