Episode summary
Top Stocks for 2026 w/ Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, & Clay Finck
We Study Billionaires
· · 1 hr 35 min · Hosts: Clay Finck, Daniel Mahncke · Guests: Shawn O'Malley
Summary
The episode centers on three 2026 stock ideas: Shawn O’Malley pitches Exor N.V. ($EXO) as a way to buy Ferrari indirectly at a steep discount to net asset value, Daniel Mahncke pitches Mercado Libre ($MELI) as the dominant Latin American e-commerce and payments platform, and Clay Finck pitches Meta ($META) as an AI beneficiary. The discussion frames each pick as a long-term compounding story rather than a short-term catalyst trade.
Shawn argues Exor is trading at roughly a 60% discount to NAV, with Ferrari alone worth more than Exor’s market cap, while the rest of the portfolio comes “for free.” He says the discount reflects complexity, friction costs, and skepticism about management, but he points to long-run NAV growth, buybacks, and transparent reporting as reasons the gap could narrow.
Daniel presents Mercado Libre as a rare business with 27 straight quarters of 30%+ topline growth, helped by the region’s low e-commerce penetration and by its integrated payments and logistics network. He argues Melly’s moat comes from secure payments, fast delivery, and scale in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, while competition from Amazon, Shopee, and Temu remains manageable. He also notes Melly’s strong underwriting, high-risk-adjusted margins, and shareholder-friendly compensation structure.
Key takeaways
- Shawn O’Malley says Exor’s Ferrari stake alone is worth more than Exor’s market cap, implying investors get the rest of the portfolio at a deep discount.
- O’Malley thinks Exor’s 60% NAV discount reflects complexity, taxes, and liquidity frictions more than a broken business model.
- Daniel Mahncke says Mercado Libre has posted 27 consecutive quarters of 30%+ topline growth, an extraordinary record at its scale.
- Mahncke argues Mercado Libre’s moat comes from combining payments, logistics, and marketplace demand across Latin America’s largest markets.
- Mahncke says Mercado Libre’s credit business earns a little over 20% risk-adjusted margin while maintaining reserves above expected losses.
Notable quotes
“you could think of it is you're getting Ferrari stock plus everything else in the portfolio effectively for free”
“So you're paying about 40 cents on the euro for the entire portfolio's net assets”
“And so that degree of complexity all under one roof, I think alone deserves some discount”
“And if you want to accelerate e-commerce adoption, there are really just two ways to do it”
How the episode opens
(00:00) The benefits of owning the logistics network are obviously enormous. It's it's one of the main reasons Amazon became so dominant in the US. And if you want to accelerate e-commerce adoption, there are really just two ways to do it.
And that's secure payments and then it's fast and reliable delivery. (00:18) And especially in a region where existing logistics networks are inconsistent at best, being the only platform with an end-to-end fulfillment system, it's just a massive advantage and extremely hard to copy. And even with Mellie's more capital light approach compared to Amazon, they still operate close to 100 warehouses and distribution centers.
(00:37) They run their own fleet of airplanes which are called Melly Air. And they've built so-called Melly places, which is basically this huge network of hundreds of third party stores that function as pickup points across the regions that they operate in. Before we dive into the video, if you've been enjoying the show, be sure to click the subscribe button below so you never miss an episode.
(01:04) It's a free and easy way to support us, and we'd really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Welcome back to the Investors Podcast.
I'm your host, Clayfink. Today, I'm joined by Shaun Ali and Daniel Mona, hosts of TIP's very own Intrinsic Value Podcast. Gentlemen, so great to have you here.
Great to be here. Thanks for having us. Well, we're ringing in the new year, the day this episode goes live.
(01:29) And today, we'll each be sharing our top stock pick for 2026. Of course, these are not intended to be investment recommendations and we encourage each of the listeners to do their own due diligence before investing in any company. So, with that, Sean, how about we start with you today?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- top stock ideas for 2026
- exor discount to nav
- exor management assessment
- mercado libre competition
- meta ai beneficiary
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MELI
- META
- Exor N.V.
- Mercado Libre
- Meta
Watch the episode
Watch “Top Stocks for 2026 w/ Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, & Clay Finck” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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