Episode summary
7% Treasury Yields by 2028? The Midterm Warning
Wealthion
· · 25 min · Hosts: Maggie Lake · Guests: Chris Casey
Summary
Chris Casey argues that the bigger market risk is not the 2026 midterms themselves, but the fiscal trajectory that could follow them. He expects Democrats to win both houses, which in his view would likely mean more spending, bigger deficits, and more pressure on the bond market. He says the market is only slowly waking up to the debt problem and that rising Treasury yields could force multiple compression in stocks, especially high-multiple tech names.
He says divided government historically tends to be market-friendly, but this cycle could still matter because Democrats would have more ability to investigate tech, slow deregulation in banking and crypto, and influence nominations. Casey also argues that the real issue is what the election signals for 2028, when affordability, debt, and populist pressure could shape policy and markets more directly.
On positioning, Casey emphasizes two big themes for the next two to five years: AI and America’s debt crisis. He favors inflation hedges such as precious metals, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, while warning that AI could face heavier regulation, nationalization-style pressure, or even a shift in advantage toward Chinese tech if U.S. policy turns more restrictive.
Key takeaways
- Chris Casey says the 2026 midterms matter mainly because they could intensify spending and deficits, not because of the election result alone.
- He expects the bond market to keep reacting to U.S. debt, and says a 7% 10-year Treasury yield by 2028 would not shock him.
- Casey says higher rates would hit equities through multiple compression, with long-duration growth and high-multiple tech especially vulnerable.
- He sees AI and the U.S. debt crisis as the two dominant investment themes over the next two to five years.
- Casey recommends inflation hedges, including precious metals, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, as a core portfolio defense.
Notable quotes
“Wouldn't shock me if we're going into a 2028 election and you have 7% on the 10 year”
“So stock up on inflation hedges, your precious metals, real estate, cryptocurrencies”
“I think for three reasons. And historically, you're right. U markets do tend to favor gridlock or divided governments”
“So I think increased spending, increased deficits or at least the status quo if not increased are definitely around the corner”
“the investment community realizes that there's no hope. It's actually an existential threat to US government, right? 40 trillion in debt”
How the episode opens
Wouldn't shock me if we're going into a 2028 election and you have 7% on the 10 year. You get a so-called multiple compression because interest rates are rising. So stock up on inflation hedges, your precious metals, real estate, cryptocurrencies.
Joining me to discuss the US midterm elections and what it means for investors is Chris Casey, founder and managing director of Windrock Wealth Management. Hey Chris, great to see you. — Hey Maggie, thanks for having me on. So, we are in the final days, the final hours before Americans head to the polls. Um, some elections matter more than others. How important is this one?
Oh, it's I mean that of course everyone says every election is the most important ever, right? This one is important, but certainly not that level. Um, and by the way, I'm frankly I'm sure we're all happy it's about to be over, right?
Like it's between the advertisements, trying to watch any TV show. I mean, I remember a couple years ago driving and there's a bumper sticker in front of me. You've probably seen it where it said something like, um, I'm voting for the giant meteor.
Let's just end this already. Like stuff like that.
But that's exactly um and you know you when you're in contested areas, which it feels like a lot more people might be feeling that now because it seems like there's a lot more that are kind of closed. But gosh, every single ad you I wish we could take all that money and put it to the deficit. That's another story. Yeah, that's
It's pretty nuts. And and and frankly, I mean, I'm glad it's almost here, but it's I think it's pretty evident who's going to win, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 10-year treasury yields
- u.s. national debt
- 2026 midterm elections
- stock market valuation compression
- inflation hedges
Companies and tickers mentioned
- WindRock Wealth Management
- U.S. Treasury
Watch the episode
Watch “7% Treasury Yields by 2028? The Midterm Warning” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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