Episode summary
The Energy Supercycle Could Last Into the 2030s | Josef Schachter
Wealthion
· · 38 min · Hosts: Maggie Lake · Guests: Josef Schachter
Summary
Josef Schachter argues that the energy and broader commodity market is in a structural supercycle that began after COVID and could last into the 2030s. His case rests on years of underinvestment, rising demand from the emerging world, and a bottleneck in the capital, infrastructure, and permitting needed to bring new supply online. He says the world is effectively “running out of 50 and $70 oil,” and he thinks WTI could move above $150 before the end of the decade, with 2027 forecast at $90 WTI and 2026 around $80 to $85.
He also argues that many energy stocks remain inexpensive despite the sector’s run, because they are still trading at low cash-flow multiples relative to reserve life and net asset value. Schachter favors producers, natural gas, oilfield services, pipelines, and North American assets, which he says should earn a premium because of security of supply and superior reserve quality. He sees natural gas as especially underappreciated, with LNG export growth and pipeline buildout likely to improve pricing.
Beyond oil, he says the real driver is raw materials: copper, lithium, nickel, aluminum, uranium, and other critical minerals needed for data centers, electrification, and industrial buildouts. In his view, environmental rules, First Nations approvals, and weak infrastructure make the cycle longer, not shorter, and create opportunities across the energy complex.
Key takeaways
- Schachter says the current energy and commodity cycle started after COVID and could extend into the 2030s because supply additions are slow and capital-intensive.
- He expects WTI to average about $80 in 2026, $90 in 2027, and could exceed $150 before decade-end.
- He says many energy names still trade at 2.7x to 3.7x cash flow even though reserve life and asset value support higher multiples.
- Schachter favors North American producers and infrastructure because security of supply should command a premium over international peers.
- He sees natural gas and LNG as underpriced opportunities, with shortages in power and pipelines keeping gas fundamentals tight.
Notable quotes
“I think before the end of this decade we're going to be over the 150”
“I think this cycle started in 2020 after COVID and I think it's going to last into the 2030s”
“there are bargains still available”
“this driver is the raw materials that have to come from uh we need critical minerals, we need copper, we need aluminum, we need nickel”
How the episode opens
I think before the end of this decade we're going to be over the 150. We're now running out of 50 and $70 oil and I think this cycle started in 2020 after co and I think it's going to last into the 2030s. So there are bargains still available.
A quick note before we get started. I recorded this conversation with Joseph Shaker on October 20th, and the markets have moved considerably since then, including the recent sell-off and volatility we've seen across a number of assets. But the heart of this conversation is much bigger than any one market move.
Joseph lays out his longerterm thesis for energy and commodities and why he believes we could be in a structural cycle that lasts well into the next decade. With that, here's my conversation with Joseph Shakar. Are we in an energy super cycle?
Here to discuss is Joseph Shaker, president of Shakar Energy Research Services, author of the Shaker Energy Report. Joseph, thanks for joining us.
My pleasure. Glad to be with you.
So, is this energy price uh the energy prices we're seeing, is it a energy price shock or something that you think is morphing into something more structural? I think it's very structural and I think it's a whole commodity complex. Um underinvestment for a period of time uh then the demand then a shock of supply.
Um you know if you go back my career I I got involved in the 70s so dating myself here a bit but 74 to 81 was a fabulous cycle. We went from under $3 WTI to $36 WTI. A few Middle East wars in the in the process in the middle of it.
Um and the key thing was we we we went from an under supply underinvestment to to meet demand and then Japan started exporting to the world uh Datson's and Panasonics and Sony's and everything else and they became a big importer at the margin and then they needed everything they needed copper they needed nickel they needed you know aluminum and they needed all the commodities and gold of course took off and you know everything took off and there's going to be corrections along the away.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- energy supercycle
- oil price outlook
- energy stock valuation
- critical minerals
- opec+ and oil market
Watch the episode
Watch “The Energy Supercycle Could Last Into the 2030s | Josef Schachter” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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