Short Answer

The highest temperature in Miami on November 15, 2026, is a toss-up between 78° and 79°, priced by the market at 51.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's price movement is a direct reflection of traders pricing in initial weather model forecasts for Miami. Projections centering on a high of 78-79°F, with some models indicating a low of 77°F, establish a clear consensus. The contract probability moved to 5.0% on the highest volume day, suggesting this level reflects the market's initial assessment of the provided forecast data. The low absolute probability implies the outcome required for the contract to resolve to 'YES' is considered unlikely given the projected temperature range.
The tight trading band of 2-5% indicates that the available forecasts are in general agreement. The initial, lower-volume trades at 2-3% likely represent early price discovery in a new market. With no divergent meteorological reports cited, the price has stabilized as participants absorbed the consistent forecast information.
  • Miami's high of 78-79°F is favored by a consensus of multiple forecast models. The climatological normal maximum temperature for November 15 is 81°F, providing support for 80-81°F.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
76° to 77° 5.0% 5.5% Several forecast models, including NBM, GFS, and ECMWF, show highs within this range.
78° to 79° 51.0% 53.7% Multiple forecast models and post-cold front conditions converge on this temperature range for Miami.
80° to 81° 49.0% 36.4% This range aligns with the climatological normal and last year's observed temperature for November 15.
75° or below 1.0% 1.0% The GEFS ensemble indicates a tail risk for colder conditions following a recent cold front.
82° to 83° 3.0% 2.6% This range is slightly above normal, supported by general El Niño conditions.

Current Context

Miami's Nov. 15, 2026, temperature forecast centers on 78-79°F. The best pre-observation estimate for the high is 78–79°F (25.6–26.1°C) [1][2][3][4][5]. Other forecasts suggest a range of 77–79°F, with one point forecast at 25°C/77°F [1][2][3][4]. This 78–79°F range was the market leader, quoted at 56% by Lines on November 13 and 63% on another market aggregation; 80–81°F was the primary alternative [5][6][7].
Settlement relies on routine KMIA METAR observations, not citywide forecasts. Forecast conditions for the date indicate partly cloudy skies with an afternoon maximum temperature, low precipitation risk, and moderate wind [8][4][9]. One published forecast for Miami gave a 26°C high and 22°C low for November 15 [4]. The market's outcome will depend on routine observations from KMIA, explicitly excluding SPECI observations. The qualifying Celsius reading will be converted and rounded into Fahrenheit brackets for settlement [10][6]. Settlement is expected after the first routine observation for November 16, or by the market’s November 16 deadline if that observation is unavailable [10][5].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Miami Weather Sunday, November 15, 2026 | Hourly Forecastuscityweather.com
  2. 2Where the weather models disagree in Miami, next 14 days — The Spreadspreadwx.com
  3. 3Dade Collier Airport (TNT) 15 Day Weather Forecast, Miami (MIA) United Statesairportdistancecalculator.com
  4. 4Miami Beach, FL Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  5. 5Miami November 15 Temperature Market | Lines.comlines.com
  6. 6Miami temperature and rain markets and the station that settles themfloridapredictions.com
  7. 7Highest temperature in Miami on November 15? - Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Miami weather update: Enjoy a sunny 22°C day with low humidity and light breeze on November 14, 2026 - The Times of Indiatimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  9. 9Hourly weather tomorrow in South Miami Heights - Foreca.co.ukforeca.co.uk
  10. 10Highest temperature in Miami on November 15?predict.fun

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For each specific temperature range, a YES contract resolves positively if the highest temperature in Miami on November 16, 2026, falls within that range; a NO contract resolves positively if it falls outside. Trading for this market begins on November 15, 2026, at 12:00 am EST. If a material error is found in the initial data publication, expiration may be delayed for revisions, or if no data becomes available, the market will resolve to the last fair price determined by the Exchange.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
78° to 79° $0.51 $0.50 51%
80° to 81° $0.48 $0.54 49%
76° to 77° $0.04 $0.97 5%
82° to 83° $0.03 $0.98 3%
75° or below $0.01 $1.00 1%
84° or above $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

The market discussion for Miami's highest temperature on November 15, 2026, primarily focuses on two narrow ranges: 78-79°F and 80-81°F. While 78-79°F currently holds a slight edge at 51% probability, there's a notable shift, with the 80-81°F range recently gaining 6% in probability to 49%. This indicates a tight consensus among traders, with an emerging sentiment favoring slightly warmer temperatures within these two most likely outcomes.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 66 Caution

Integrity risk· Resolution quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score75Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score66Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
95Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
30High Risk

No suspicious activity on any screen

Settlement depends on interpretation — verify the rules and source before trading.

Resolution rules read: Ambiguous

Liquidity
60Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

6 contracts · worst first

76° to 77°5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

84° or above31
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

75° or below39
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

82° to 83°40
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

80° to 81°66
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

78° to 79°74
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
85Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

6 contracts · worst first

76° to 77°85
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

78° to 79°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

80° to 81°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

82° to 83°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

75° or below—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

84° or above—
No significant move (8h)

Price was stable over the last 8 hours.

Rule clarity
40Ambiguous

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

6 contracts · worst first

78° to 79°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
80° to 81°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
76° to 77°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
82° to 83°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
75° or below40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
84° or above40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 38 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.2c slippage (~2% of a 50.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

78° to 79°Primary40Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
80° to 81°40Market scoreLiquidity66Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
66 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
76° to 77°5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality85Rule clarity40
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
85 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
82° to 83°40Market scoreLiquidity40Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
40 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
75° or below39Market scoreLiquidity39Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 39
Liquidity
39 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
84° or above31Market scoreLiquidity31Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 31
Liquidity
31 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (8h)

Price was stable over the last 8 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 15, 2026

5. How do long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models compare for Miami's temperature trends leading into November 2026?

Market Probability 78-79F51-55% (November 14 snapshot) [1][2][3][4]
Market Probability 80-81F43-43.3% (November 14 snapshot) [1][2][3][4]
Settlement ConditionMaximum temperature at Miami (CLIMIA) for November 15 [1][3]
Long-range GFS and ECMWF forecasts for Miami in November 2026 are unavailable. The provided information does not include long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models concerning Miami's temperature trends leading into November 2026. Consequently, a comparison of these models cannot be performed based on the facts available.
Prediction markets show specific probabilities for Miami's temperature ranges. Market snapshots from November 14 indicate specific probabilities for temperature ranges, with 78–79°F at approximately 51–55% and 80–81°F at about 43–43.3% [1][2][3][4]. These figures represent crowd or market probabilities and should not be confused with forecasts from GFS or ECMWF models. Source pages presented minor variations in timestamps and probability figures for these market snapshots [1][2][3][4].
Market settlement rules clarify data sources for maximum temperature. The market terms specify that settlement is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (CLIMIA) for November 15 [1][3]. Kalshi's settlement source is cited as The Weather Company, while a separate Gemini listing indicates reliance on the first NWS daily climatological report [1][3]. This platform-specific settlement information is distinct from, and should not be conflated with, model forecast data [1][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Miami Weather on Nov 15, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  3. 3Highest temperature in Miami on November 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

6. What does historical data from the KMIA station on November 15 suggest about the likelihood of a high temperature in the 78-79°F bracket?

KMIA 1991–2020 Normal Max Temp Nov 1581°F [1]
Prediction Market Estimate for 78–79°F51–55% [2][3][4][5]
KMIA Historical Max Temp Nov 1588°F in 2008 [6]
Historical data suggests 78-79°F is possible, though cooler than normal. Historical data from the KMIA station indicates that a high temperature in the 78–79°F bracket on November 15 has a substantial, but not clearly dominant, chance [1][7][8]. Climatologically, this temperature range is considered cooler than normal, with 80–81°F identified as the climatological center for the date [1][8][7]. The KMIA’s 1991–2020 normal maximum temperature for November 15 is 81°F, placing the 78–79°F bracket approximately 2–3°F below this normal [1].
Prediction markets favored 78-79°F, alongside notable historical records. Prior to observation, prediction-market estimates for November 15, 2026, indicated a preference for 78–79°F at roughly 51–55%, exceeding the 43% allocated to 80–81°F [2][3][4][5]. However, these markets reported low or unknown liquidity and wide spreads [2][3][4][5]. Reviewing specific past occurrences, Miami’s highest recorded temperature on November 15 was 88°F in 2008, while the lowest maximum was 64°F in 1969 [6]. More recently, on November 15, 2025, KMIA registered a high of 81°F [9]. Overall, while historical observations present a considerable chance for 78-79°F, climatological trends lean towards 80-81°F or slightly warmer, diverging from the market's primary favored outcome [1][7][8].
Sources (9)
  1. 1MIAMIweather.gov
  2. 2Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Highest temperature in Miami on November 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Miami Weather on Nov 15, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Daily Records - Miami.xlsx - Google Sheetsweather.gov
  7. 7Miami November Weatherextremeweatherwatch.com
  8. 8Miami Weather in November — Temps & Rain | DWHdailyweatherhistory.com
  9. 9Local Climatological Data v2 Daily Summary November 2025climatecenter.fsu.edu

7. What specific weather patterns would need to emerge in early November 2026 to push the high temperature into the '84°F or above' bracket?

Target High Temperature84°F or above (November 15, 2026) [1][2]
Required Temperature SwingApproximately 13–14°F [3][2]
Preceding Warm-up Duration1–2 days [1][2]
Specific weather patterns are required for high November temperatures. To push Miami's high temperature to 84°F or above on November 15, 2026, an amplifying upper-level ridge and persistent southerly to southwesterly low-level winds are necessary [1][2]. These conditions would initiate a rapid warm-air advection event, leading to a significant increase of approximately 13–14°F from cooler patterns predicted for November 14, 2026 [3][2].
Several additional conditions support achieving this temperature. Beyond the broad atmospheric patterns, achieving 84°F or higher in mid-November Miami also requires minimal cloud cover to allow for solar heating [1][2]. It is crucial to avoid any frontal or tropical cloud intrusion, and a warm-up period of one to two days prior to November 15 is essential to elevate boundary-layer temperatures [1][2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Miami Weather on Nov 15, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Highest temperature in Miami on November 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

8. What is the historical variance between the official KMIA METAR high temperature and widely published commercial forecasts for Miami in mid-November?

Highest Predicted Range Probability51–55% for 78–79°F (as of Nov. 14, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Second Highest Predicted Range Probability43% for 80–81°F (as of Nov. 14, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Prediction Market Settlement TimingNov. 16, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Historical variance between METAR data and forecasts could not be verified. An assessment of the historical variance between the official KMIA METAR high temperature and widely published commercial forecasts for Miami in mid-November was not possible. This limitation arose because official maximum temperature observations for November 15, 2026, were not available in the provided search results. Specifically, KMIA aviation-weather pages did not expose the necessary historical data to conduct such a comparison [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Prediction markets forecasted Miami's high for November 15, 2026. As of November 14, 2026, prediction-market forecasts for Miami’s November 15 high indicated that 78–79°F was the most probable range, with a probability of 51–55%. The next most likely range was 80–81°F, estimated at approximately 43%, while all other temperature ranges accounted for 1–3% each [1][2][3][4]. However, this event had not yet resolved by the stated date, as the displayed settlement timing was November 16, 2026. Consequently, no official maximum temperature for November 15, 2026, was available for comparison with these forecasts in the retrieved results [1][2][3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Miami on November 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Miami Weather on Nov 15, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5METAR and TAF Dataaviationweather.gov
  6. 6METAR and TAF Dataaviationweather.gov

9. How could the forecasted state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in late 2026 impact Miami's mid-November temperatures?

El Niño Conditions ForecastStrong-to-very-strong through January–March 2027, with Niño-3.4 at +2.5°C [1]
Leading Miami Nov 15 Outcome78–79°F (51–55%) [2][3][4][5]
Second Leading Miami Nov 15 Outcome80–81°F (43%) [2][3]
Strong El Niño conditions are forecast, but direct daily temperature impacts are uncertain. NOAA anticipates strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions to persist through January–March 2027, with the Niño-3.4 region at +2.5°C [1]. While El Niño is considered a dominant teleconnection for monthly forecasts, NOAA cautions that even powerful ENSO events do not guarantee specific expected regional impacts, particularly regarding a precise daily temperature prediction for Miami [6][7]. Furthermore, competing atmospheric signals and inherent uncertainties in the eastern U.S. support treating ENSO as a background influence rather than a direct predictor of daily temperatures [7].
Prediction markets favor 78–79°F for Miami's mid-November temperature. Market snapshots from November 14 indicated that a temperature of 78–79°F was the leading outcome for Miami on November 15, carrying an approximate probability of 51–55% [2][3][4][5]. The next most likely outcome was a temperature of 80–81°F, with an estimated probability of around 43% [2][3]. It is important to note that the exact resolution of these prediction contracts relies on their specific rules and designated settlement sources, such as the NWS Daily Climatological Report or The Weather Company, rather than a general assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions [2][3].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussioncpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  2. 2Highest temperature in Miami on November 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026? - Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Miami Weather on Nov 15, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in Miami on Nov 15, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Climate Prediction Center - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilitiescpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  7. 7https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus07.kwbc.pmd.30d.txttgftp.nws.noaa.gov

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Market pricing for Miami's highest temperature on November 15, 2026, shows the 78-79°F bracket as dominant, with Worm's pricing it at 65% and Polymarket at 50.5% [1][2]. Consensus from forecast models largely aligns within this range: Groundhog.markets reports a median high of 77.1°F, with a forecast spread of 76.8-80.0°F [3]. Spreadwx indicates tight agreement among 7 models, ranging from 77°-78°, a 1° spread against a typical 5° at this lead, with GEFS p10-p90 at 72°-77° [4]. Checkweather.io shows NBM at 77°, GFS at 76°, and ECMWF at 77° [5]. The NWS forecast for Miami Beach on November 15 projects a high near 78°F [6]. This forecast of approximately 77-78°F is slightly below the climatological normal high of 80.4°F for Miami on November 15 [7].
Bullish catalysts for the 78-79°F+ brackets include mostly sunny or partly cloudy conditions, with rain chances remaining low at 1-6% [6][5][8][3]. A warming trend is anticipated post-front, with highs expected to rise to 79-80°F from November 16-21 [6]. The afternoon hours, specifically between 1-4 PM, are expected to reach peak temperatures, with Foreca showing 77°F at South Miami Heights during this period [8].
Conversely, bearish catalysts for lower temperature brackets stem from residual cool air following the strong cold front on November 13-14, which brought the coolest air of the fall and lows in the 50s inland [6]. Persistent north or northeast winds could also limit warming [6]. Specific model outputs, such as GFS at 76°F and NBM at 77°F, support the 76-77°F bracket [5][6][8][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 16, 2026
  • Expiration: November 22, 2026
  • Closes: November 16, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1Highest temperature in Miami on November 15? Odds & Predictionsworm.wtf
  2. 2Highest temperature in Miami on November 15? - Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Miami, FL weather forecastgroundhog.markets
  4. 4Where the weather models disagree in Miami, next 14 days — The Spreadspreadwx.com
  5. 5Miami Weekend Weather: Will It Rain? Every Model Compared | checkweather.iocheckweather.io
  6. 6Strong cold front due Thursday night, bringing the coolest air of the fall | Red Sidewalksredsidewalks.com
  7. 7Miami Weather in November — Temps & Rain | DWHdailyweatherhistory.com
  8. 8Hourly weather tomorrow in South Miami Heights - Foreca.co.ukforeca.co.uk

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHMIA-26NOV13-T83: NO (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXHIGHMIA-26NOV13-T76: NO (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXHIGHMIA-26NOV13-B82.5: NO (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXHIGHMIA-26NOV13-B80.5: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXHIGHMIA-26NOV13-B78.5: NO (Nov 14, 2026)