BTC price on Nov 14, 2026 at 9pm EST?
Short Answer
Bitcoin's price on Nov 14, 2026, at 9 PM EST is confirmed to be above $62,200, as precise minute data indicates a range of $64,050–$64,140, with the market pricing this at 95.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- Bitcoin price is confirmed above $62,200, resting in the $64,050–$64,140 range.
- The asset also confirmed below $64,200, following a 24% drawdown from October.
Current Context
Bitcoin registered significant declines on November 14, 2026, with prices settling in the mid-$63,000 range by 9 PM EST. The hourly close at 21:00 UTC (5 PM ET) was $64,768 after a -1.46% move [1]. By 7:31 PM ET, BTC had fallen to $63,775 [2], and CoinGecko recorded $63,528 at 23:03 UTC (approximately 7 PM ET) [3]. Myfxbook data showed the daily candle opening at $68,306.76 and closing at $64,434.76, marking a -6.01% drop, with an intraday low of $63,838.50 [4]. CoinDesk reported a 3-month low of $63,400 touched intraday [5]. This price action followed a ~21% loss in nine days, from $80,443 on November 5 to $71,372 on November 13 [3]. The drawdown from the October 6, 2025, all-time high of $126,080 reached 49.6% at $63,528 [3][2]. Bitcoin dominance held at 58.7% as altcoins recorded steeper losses, including Ether at -9.1% to $1,745, Solana at -10.4%, and XRP at -10.7% [3].
Macroeconomic factors and substantial capital outflows primarily drove the sharp market downturn on November 14. CME FedWatch data indicated an 88.5% probability of a December 25-basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve, up from 11.5% for a 50-basis point hike, after October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month against an expected 0.3%, and payrolls added 165,000 jobs versus an anticipated 65,000 [3]. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced approximately $1.07 billion in net outflows between November 9 and 13, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing around $908 million to this total [3]. Over the past 30 days, stablecoin supply (USDT, USDC, DAI) saw a record $11.5 billion reduction [3]. Liquidations were significant, with about $1 billion wiped out in 24 hours, including $382 million in Bitcoin positions. A single hour saw $691 million in liquidations when BTC dropped below $64,000, with 97% of these being long positions ($671 million longs versus $19.5 million shorts) [3].
Analysts and prediction markets signal expectations for further near-term volatility and potential price consolidation. James Check characterized the event as the "fourth capitulation since the all-time high" and a "deep value zone" last observed in February and late June 2026 [5]. Benjamin Cowen projected further declines in a capitulation spiral, drawing comparisons to 2015 and 2020 market cycles [6]. Crypto World flagged the weekly Super Trend turning red, a signal last seen in October to November 2022, indicating bearish confirmation if the weekly candle closed below $66,500, but also noted potential bullish divergence at $62,000 [6]. Crypto Banter initially expected a drop to $65,000-$66,000 following a brief move to $67,720 [6]. Polymarket's November price-touch market, with $5.17 million in volume across 28 targets, showed 91% probability to touch $75,000, 73% for $72,500, 50% for $70,000, and 18% for $65,000, but only 1% for $100,000 [7]. LeetFi-tracked markets on November 14 indicated a 90.1% YES for dipping to $65,000, 64.5% for $62,500, and 21.5% for $60,000, with only 0.5-4.2% chance of reaching $80,000-$100,000 [8]. CoinGecko's prediction table for November 9-15, based on a $63,714 price, gave a 100% chance of reaching $64,000-$66,000, 56.5% for $62,000, and 24.6% for $60,000 [9]. Key support levels are identified at $62,000 and $60,000, with the year low at $58,566 from July 1, 2026, while $66,000-$68,000 represents a resistance/reclaim zone [3][10]. The December FOMC meeting is the next major macro event, and December 25 options expiry holds $710 million notional at the $80,000 strike and $530 million at $100,000 [3][10]. A Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, addressing token classification, is also scheduled [3][10].
Sources (10)
- 1BTC fell 1.46% in one hour on 14/11/2026 — what followedtlap.io
- 2Bitcoin Was $63,775 at 7:31 p.m. ET Nov. 14 as Drawdown Tops 24% | TokenPosttokenpost.com
- 3Crypto news: bitcoin falls to $63,500, ether down 9%cryptoticker.io
- 4BTCUSD Bitcoin / US Dollar BTC USD Dados Forex Históricos | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
- 5Bitcoin price analysis: BTC continues to decline Saturday, entering 'deep value zone'coindesk.com
- 6Bitcoin price prediction for November 14, 2026: 9 bloggers' viewsbuycrypt.com
- 7Bitcoin Is 'Running on Empty' as Price Bets and Hedges Shift: Glassnodenews.bitcoin.com
- 8What price will Bitcoin hit in November? | LeetFileetfi.com
- 9Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026coingecko.com
- 10Bitcoin Pushes Past $70,000 as Traders Eye Fed Rate Decisionretailnews.asia
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the market "$63,200 or above," a YES resolution occurs if the final Bitcoin price is $63,200 or more, while a NO resolution occurs if it is below $63,200. The market resolves at 9 PM EST on November 14, 2026. The final price is determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices, collected during the last minute before expiration.
Market Discussion
On November 14, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was reported in the ~$64,000–$64,200 range at 9pm EST (22:00 UTC), with minute-level snapshots showing prices like $64,153.61 at 23:56 UTC and a Binance spot reading of $64,198 at 6:57pm ET [1][2]. This price point followed a significant daily decline for November 14, 2026, with the BTC daily candle closing down −6.03% at $64,118.79 [3][4][5], amidst widespread bearish commentary from traders anticipating further drops [6][5].
Sources (6)
- 1Bitcoin Rises 1.31% in an Hour to $64,198 on Binance Spot | TokenPosttokenpost.com
- 2Bitcoin price last hour in US Dollar1bitcoin.in
- 3Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
- 4BTCUSD Bitcoin / US Dollar BTC USD Dados Forex Históricos | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
- 5Evening brief: Bitcoin at $65,966, consensus down first toward | OwlChartowlchart.com
- 6Bitcoin price prediction for November 14, 2026: 9 bloggers' viewsbuycrypt.com
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score89Strong
Trade quality20% of score64Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score84Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
5. What impact will Q4 2026 inflation and jobs reports have on the Federal Reserve's December rate decision, and what are the potential consequences for Bitcoin's price?
| December 2026 Rate Hike Probability | 88.3-88.5% for 25 bps hike [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price Decline in November 2026 | 17.2% [2][3][4] |
| October 2026 CPI Month-over-Month | 0.4% increase [1][2][3] |
Strong Q4 reports signal higher December Fed rate hike odds. The Q4 2026 inflation and jobs reports significantly strengthened the case for a December Federal Reserve rate hike, prompting a hawkish repricing in markets. The October 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.4% month-over-month increase, exceeding the 0.3% forecast, with core CPI rising 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast [1][2][3]. Concurrently, the October jobs report showed 165,000 payrolls added, substantially surpassing the ~65,000 expected [5]. Following these reports, CME FedWatch data indicated an 88.3-88.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 meeting [1][2][3]. There was also a significant jump in the probability of at least 50 basis points cumulative tightening by January, from 15.8% to 76.6% [1][2][3].
Bitcoin's price declined sharply due to hawkish market repricing. In response to this hawkish repricing, Bitcoin experienced a substantial decline, falling from approximately $75,800 on November 6 to a November 14 close of $64,118.79, representing a 17.2% depreciation for November 2026 [2][3][4]. This depreciation occurred amid a stronger dollar, which hit a 2026 high, and rising 2-year yields, which increased by approximately 19 basis points to 4.74% [1][2][3][5][4]. These factors thereby increased the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin [1][2][3][5][4]. The market also witnessed over $1 billion in long positions liquidated, with costly leverage triggering $1.27 billion in liquidations over 24 hours [1][2][3][5][4].
Sources (5)
- 1Hot US inflation raises Fed rate hike concerns for cryptocointelegraph.com
- 2Hawkish Fed Repricing Punishes Non-Yielders: Gold and Bitcoin Slide as Dollar Surges to 2026 High - ActionForexactionforex.com
- 3Bitcoin holds $73,000 as odds of a 50 bps rate hike jumpcryptoslate.com
- 4Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
- 5Fed Rate Hike in December? What It Means for Bitcoin | Rebatlyrebatly.io
6. Are the significant Q4 2026 outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and the concurrent decline in stablecoin supply indicative of a long-term trend or a short-term market reaction?
| Stablecoin Supply Contraction | $14.2 billion over 30 days through Nov 9, 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| US Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows (Two Weeks) | $2.35 billion through Nov 13, 2026 [4][5][6] |
| Bitcoin Price Low | $63,403.1 on Nov 14, 2026 [7][4] |
In Q4 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a concurrent decline in stablecoin supply, leading to a notable price drop for Bitcoin. The total stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2 billion over 30 days through November 9, 2026, falling just below $280 billion, marking the fastest contraction since June 2022 [1][2][3]. Concurrently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $1.6 billion in net redemptions over 20 trading sessions through November 9 [1][3], contributing to $2.35 billion in total outflows over two weeks, with a seven-consecutive-day outflow streak draining $1.91 billion since November 5 [4][5][6]. This market activity coincided with Bitcoin's price dropping below $70,000 on November 13 and further to $64,000 on November 14, hitting an intraday low of $63,403.1 [7][4].
Analysts debate if outflows signify a sentiment shock or deeper structural weakness. The market's reaction to these outflows has been interpreted differently by analysts. Some, such as CoinShares' James Butterfill and Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas, characterized the outflows as a "pure sentiment shock" rather than a structural break, with Balchunas deeming ~$3 billion in outflows from a ~$100 billion base "totally meaningless" [8]. CryptoQuant noted similar past demand contractions in March 2025 and June 2026 which coincided with local bottoms followed by recoveries [9][10]. However, the market also exhibited bearish structural signals, including CryptoQuant's Bull Score falling to 20, a $6.6 billion drop in USDT market cap over 60 days (the largest contraction since mid-2022), and Glassnode identifying $73,000 as a key support level [9][3]. Catalysts for the selloff included Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO, expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike, the Binance hack, and ongoing daily hacks and exploits [4][11][12][13].
Despite challenges, the market shows signs of potential stabilization and recovery. Despite these significant challenges, some positive indicators have emerged within the market. Leveraged long positions were flushed out, and post-November 5, buy orders began to outweigh sell orders in the order book [1][12]. Additionally, wallets holding 100-10,000 BTC have started accumulating, with whale accumulation offering support in the $65,000-$68,000 range [12][14]. Looking ahead, QCP's Q4 2026 outlook is described as "constructive but conditional," requiring sustained multi-week ETF creation, the stablecoin supply reclaiming its spring peak of approximately $322 billion, and softer dollar/real yields for a durable breakout [13].
Sources (14)
- 1Stablecoin Drain, ETF Outflows Leave Bitcoin 'Running on Empty' - Decryptdecrypt.co
- 2Crypto Market Rally Bets Fade as Stablecoin Supply Falls $14.2 Billioncointelegraph.com
- 3Bitcoin ETF Outflows and Stablecoin Supply Declinethebitjournal.com
- 4Bitcoin ETFs lose $1 billion for the second week in a row as crypto funds, except one, continue bleedingtheblock.co
- 5Bitcoin ETFs are now down over $1.5 billion in net outflows for the yearcoindesk.com
- 6Bitcoin Price Forecast as ETF Outflows Hit $2.35 Billionthecoinrepublic.com
- 7Bitcoin falls below $64,000 as ETF outflows extend to seventh straight dayfinance.yahoo.com
- 8Bitcoin price prediction: $68,000 base and $84,000 bull casefinancefeeds.com
- 9Bitcoin Bull Score falls to 20 as USDT supply shrinks – CryptoQuantfxstreet.com
- 10Bitcoin's recovery faces a $75,600 trapcryptoslate.com
- 11Bitcoin Year-End Price Prediction 2026: $46,000 First Then 30% Rally to $65,000coinpedia.org
- 12Crypto ETF Carnage; Stablecoin Contractiontheblock.co
- 13Deck review: 39 slides, QCP systemhs-244470765.f.hubspotemail-na2.net
- 14Bitcoin's $67,000 crash puts $57 billion holder cluster at risk as ETF investors fleecryptoslate.com
7. How do the 'capitulation spiral' forecasts from analysts like Benjamin Cowen compare to the 'deep value zone' thesis from James Check for Q4 2026, and which view do on-chain metrics support?
| Cowen's Q4 2026 Bitcoin Bottom Forecast | $43,800–$44,000 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Cowen's 'Golden Pocket' Range | $47,000–$67,000 [5] |
| Bitcoin Wealth in Long-Term Holders | 75–80% [6][7][8] |
Benjamin Cowen projected a Bitcoin bottom in Q4 2026, targeting $43,800–$44,000, which he specified would necessitate a full capitulation including specific on-chain resets [1][2][3][4]. His conditions for this capitulation included the MVRV Z-Score falling below zero and 50–60% of Bitcoin supply being in an unrealized loss [1][2][3][4]. In his October 30, 2026 memo, Cowen noted that a Q4 decline was already underway, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $77,100, and identified key support levels such as the 1st-percentile line near $72,100 and a 'golden pocket' range of $47,000–$67,000 [5]. At that point, only about 35% of the Bitcoin supply was in loss, falling short of his defined capitulation threshold [5].
In contrast, James Check's thesis suggested Bitcoin entered a deep value zone by mid-November 2026, already displaying signals indicative of a bottom [9][8]. His analysis relied on mean-reversion models and long-term holder behavior [9][8]. Models like the 200-week moving average and MVRV indicated price levels observed on only 15–20% of all Bitcoin trading days [9][8]. By November 13–14, 2026, Check identified what he termed a fourth capitulation event, characterized by approximately $680 million in realized losses, and observed that 75–80% of Bitcoin wealth was held by long-term holders, a pattern typically associated with bear market bottoms [6][7][8].
On-chain metrics presented a nuanced picture by mid-November 2026, partially supporting both viewpoints but indicating Cowen's full capitulation conditions remained unfulfilled [5][8][10][2]. While Check's deep-value indicators, such as stable long-term holder behavior and elevated transfer volume, were signaling bottom-zone conditions, Cowen's specific requirements—an MVRV Z-Score below zero, a price below the realized price of approximately $53,000–$54,000, and 50–60% of supply in loss—had not yet been met [5][8][10][2]. The intraday low of approximately $63,280–$63,315 on November 14, 2026, fell within Cowen's 'golden pocket' but remained above his ultimate target range, aligning with his perspective that the final low might still be several months away [5][8][10][2].
Sources (10)
- 1Bitcoin Cycle Memo - July 2026 | Research Reports | Benjamin Cowenbenjamincowen.com
- 2Benjamin Cowen’s New Memo Points to Q4 Bitcoin Bottom Near $44,000 | Market Bitcoin | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
- 3Benjamin Cowen’s New Memo Points to Q4 Bitcoin Bottom Near $44,000finance.yahoo.com
- 4Bitcoin Bottom Seen Near $44,000 in Q4, Cowen Says, Citing Midterm Cycle and On-Chain Data | GFdailygfdaily.com
- 5Bitcoin and the Cycle Clock (October 2026) | Research Reports | Benjamin Cowenbenjamincowen.com
- 6Bitcoin price analysis: BTC continues to decline Saturday, entering 'deep value zone'coindesk.com
- 7Is Bitcoin Cheap Again? - by James Check (Checkmatey)newsletter.checkonchain.com
- 8James Check: Bitcoin Is in the Discount Zone · TFTCtftc.io
- 9Welcome To Deep Value - by James Check (Checkmatey)newsletter.checkonchain.com
- 10Running on Emptyresearch.glassnode.com
8. What are the most reliable public data sources for tracking daily net flows for major spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, through late 2026?
| Cumulative US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Inflow | $54.7-55.5B (mid-November 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| IBIT Daily Net Flow | -$143.5M (Nov 13, 2026) [1][2][4] |
| FBTC Daily Net Flow | -$41.9M (Nov 13, 2026) [1][2][4] |
Farside Investors and SoSoValue are key public Bitcoin ETF flow trackers. Farside Investors is the most widely cited free public data source for tracking daily net flows of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, including prominent funds like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, with updates published daily after the US close [1][2][4]. For programmatic access, SoSoValue is a major vendor offering an official Open API, which includes a per-fund endpoint covering the last 30 days of data [5][6]. While these aggregators provide broad market data, an issuer's own fund page remains the authoritative source for detailed metrics such as shares outstanding, NAV per share, and net assets, updated daily after the market close. For example, IBIT reported net assets of $60,018,939,295 and a NAV of $43.7352 as of September 2, 2026 [4].
Numerous secondary trackers aggregate data from primary sources, revealing market trends. Many free trackers and aggregators leverage data from Farside Investors or SoSoValue, such as etfbit.com [7], Kodexius (which reported a total daily flow of -$185.4M on November 13, 2026) [2][7], BMNR Scan [8], CoinGlass [4], and Coinmico's API [9][4]. TFTC notably utilizes SoSoValue data, syncing daily, and accesses Farside's archives for historical per-fund data extending back to the January 11, 2024 launch [5]. A paid API from Newhedge also offers per-fund daily BTC-denominated flow metrics for IBIT and FBTC [10]. During early-mid November 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced sustained outflows, with IBIT being a dominant source of these outflows [1][2][3]. Despite these recent outflows, the cumulative category net inflow since the January 2024 launch remained substantial, approximately $54.7-55.5B as of mid-November 2026 [1][2][3].
Sources (10)
- 1Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) – Farside Investorsfarside.co.uk
- 2US Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows - Daily Inflows & Outflows | Kodexiuskodexius.com
- 3Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) – Farside Investorsfarside.co.uk
- 4How to Track Bitcoin ETF Flows Daily: Sources & Routinecryptoetf.guide
- 5Bitcoin ETF Flows: Methodology and Changelog · TFTCtftc.io
- 6sosovalue-pandas v0.1.1pypi.org
- 7ETFbit · Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, prices & AUMetfbit.com
- 8Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF Flow Tracker | BMNR Scanbmnrscan.com
- 9ETF flows — GET /v1/etf-flows/{asset} · Coinmico API Docsdocs.coinmico.com
- 10Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows [BTC] API Documentation | Newhedgedocs.newhedge.io
9. Ahead of the year-end 2026 Senate vote, what are the competing arguments surrounding the CLARITY Act and how might its passage or failure affect institutional investment in Bitcoin?
| CLARITY Act Cloture Vote Result | Failed 49-50, 11 votes short of 60 needed [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Outflows | $450.3 million following the vote failure [5][6] |
| Bitcoin Price Drop | Approximately 4-5% to $75,000-$76,000 after the vote [5][6][7] |
The CLARITY Act's passage faces significant legislative hurdles and divided opinion. The Act's cloture vote failed on September 15, 2026, with a 49–50 tally, falling 11 votes short of the 60 required for passage. However, a motion to reconsider leaves open the possibility of a year-end vote [1][2][3][4]. Proponents, including the crypto industry, the White House, Stand With Crypto, and the Blockchain Association, argue that the Act offers crucial legal certainty for jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, establishes necessary registration, and prevents capital and innovation from moving offshore [8][9][10]. Conversely, opponents, such as Democratic senators and 18 state Attorneys General, have raised concerns regarding inadequate money-laundering and illicit-finance safeguards, weak consumer and investor protections, and narrow ethics provisions. They also objected to DOJ-exclusive enforcement with a sunset date and the preemption of state anti-fraud authority [11][12][8]. Additionally, community banks and some senators voiced concerns that stablecoin yields could deplete traditional bank deposits [8].
The Act's initial failure triggered immediate negative market reactions and outflows. Following the CLARITY Act's cloture vote failure on September 15, 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant net outflows of $450.3 million, marking the largest since June 25, with Fidelity FBTC seeing -$214.8 million and BlackRock IBIT -$161.7 million [5][6]. Bitcoin's price dropped by approximately 4–5% to about $75,000–$76,000, and shares of Coinbase and Circle declined by 8–11%, leading to an estimated $571 million–$769 million in crypto liquidations [5][6][7]. JPMorgan noted that while agency rulemaking could serve as a substitute, it is less durable than statutory law as rules can be repealed or overturned [2]. Despite this, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan characterized the failure as merely a "speed bump, not a roadblock," citing Bitcoin's earlier rally and continued institutional expansion through various platforms [13]. Irrespective of the CLARITY Act's outcome, the GENIUS Act stablecoin rules are still scheduled to take effect on January 18, 2027 [1][14].
Broader economic trends significantly influence institutional investment despite legislative uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026, and a 10-year yield of 5.15%, combined with seven consecutive days of Bitcoin ETF outflows into mid-November, further amplified the impact on institutional flows [13][15][16]. Bitcoin was trading approximately 49% below its October 6, 2025, all-time high of $126,080 [7]. Analysts from Arctic Digital and BTC Markets suggest the current cycle is more dependent on interest rates than on legislative actions. They imply that while a year-end CLARITY passage would provide durable statutory certainty, it would likely not reverse macro-driven institutional outflows on its own [13][15]. Bitcoin closed at $64,118.79 on November 14, 2026 [17][18][16].
Sources (18)
- 1What the Failed CLARITY Act Vote Means for Institutional Digital Asset Operations | Fireblocksfireblocks.com
- 2JPMorgan says Clarity Act 'not fully dead,' but passage window 'extremely narrow'theblock.co
- 3HOT MOMENTS: Clarity Act Vote Rejected—What Happens Now? Markets in Turmoil—Here’s What You Need to Know and the Latest Data - Bitcoin Sistemien.bitcoinsistemi.com
- 4JPMorgan Says Clarity Act Not Dead After 49-50 Senate Votebitbo.io
- 5Bitcoin ETFs Post Biggest Outflow Since Late June, But Bulls Say BTC Doesn't Need CLARITY Actstocktwits.com
- 6Bitcoin ETFs Lose $450M as Clarity Act Fails and Fed Decision Looms24crypto.news
- 7The CLARITY Act Fell 11 Votes Short of a Senate Debate | MiningPoolminingpool.co.uk
- 8Focus: Crypto, banks take lobbying war to US senators' home states ahead of key vote | Reutersreuters.com
- 9White House makes closing argument on crypto bill | Semaforsemafor.com
- 10Senate cloture vote on Clarity Act fails, dealing regulatory blow to crypto industrycnbc.com
- 11Senate fails to advance the CLARITY Act: Top points | DLA Piperdlapiper.com
- 12Crypto Vote: Why the CLARITY Act Just Failed in the Senate - Bitcoin Foundationbitcoinfoundation.org
- 13Bitwise Sees Bitcoin Rally Surviving CLARITY Act Failurecoincryptonewz.com
- 14Artemis Weekly Digital Finance Fundamentals 2026.4.11research.artemis.ai
- 15Bitcoin survived the Fed and CLARITY, and now faces the next major test at $82,000 this weekend – Crypto Digital Currency News ©cryptodigicurrency.com
- 16Bitcoin Today, Nov 14, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
- 17Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 18Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts and Upcoming Events
BTC traded at ~$64,050–64,140 at 9 PM EST (00:00 UTC) on Nov 14, 2026, marking a drawdown topping 24% from its October high [1][2]. The asset broke below $72,000 on Nov 12, hitting a 3-month low of $63,403.1, a ~6.55% decline on the day [2][3]. The Nov 14 daily bar showed an open of $68,312, high of $68,447.70, low of $63,315, and close of ~$63,784–64,155, a ~6.1% decline from the prior close of $68,238.21 [4][5]. Polymarket's 'Bitcoin price on November 14, 2026' market resolved with the <66,000 bucket at Yes 100% [6]. Bearish drivers included October CPI at 0.4% m/m versus 0.3% expected, pushing December Fed hike odds to ~90–92% [7]. US spot BTC ETFs logged seven consecutive outflow sessions totaling ~$1.91B since Nov 5, with IBIT alone seeing >$2B over nine sessions [3][8]. $1.47B was liquidated in 24 hours, with ~$1.31B longs [3]. The 10-year yield stood at 5.15–5.17% and the dollar reached a 19-month high [8]. Additional liquidity pressure stemmed from Anthropic's planned IPO seeking up to $64.4B with 6x oversubscription [3].
Technical indicators suggest an oversold market, with RSI at 22.3 and Fear & Greed Index at 13 [9]. Funding is near zero, and extreme put skew is observed, alongside a DVOL of ~42.6–43.9 [9]. Analyst James Check labeled $63,400 a 'deep value zone' and the fourth capitulation wave since the ATH [10]. A cooler PPI (0.3% versus 0.4% expected) had briefly pushed BTC above $70,000 [11]. Key upcoming events include the Nov 15 3 AM ET Deribit expiry (4,853 BTC, max pain $68,500) [9]. On Nov 16, the US market opens at 9:30 AM ET, with Fed's Williams speaking at 14:05 GMT and Chair Warsh at ~17:00 GMT [8]. Nov 17 features US retail sales at 8:30 AM ET and Nvidia Q3 results ~21:20 GMT [8]. FOMC minutes are scheduled for Nov 18 at 2 PM ET [8]. Later events include the Nov 30 MSCI rebalance, which will remove Strategy, and the Dec 8–9 Fed meeting [8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 15, 2026
- Expiration: November 22, 2026
- Closes: November 15, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1Bitcoin price last hour in US Dollar1bitcoin.in
- 2Bitcoin Was $63,775 at 7:31 p.m. ET Nov. 14 as Drawdown Tops 24% | TokenPosttokenpost.com
- 3Bitcoin falls below $64,000 as ETF outflows extend to seventh straight day By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 42026年比特币历史价格-2026年BTC多少钱 - BitKan.combitkan.com
- 5The CryptoOceans Twice Daily Cryptocurrency Report (as of 2026-11-14 23:55:09 UTC). – Crypto Oceanscryptooceans.com
- 6Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 7Bitcoin $65K Odds Hit 83% on Polymarket After a One-Day Repricingshattered.io
- 8Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, US Retail Sales And Nvidia Earnings Test Bitcoin At 67,200 As Majors Hit Triangle Support | Technical Analysis - Crypto Report | 14 Nov 2026 - Capital Street FXcapitalstreetfx.com
- 9Bitcoin Today, Nov 14, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
- 10Bitcoin price analysis: BTC continues to decline Saturday, entering 'deep value zone'coindesk.com
- 11Bitcoin Up or Down Nov 14 12-4PM | Lines.comlines.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26NOV1419-T78299.99: NO (Nov 15, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV1419-T78199.99: NO (Nov 15, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV1419-T78099.99: NO (Nov 15, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV1419-T77999.99: NO (Nov 15, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26NOV1419-T77899.99: NO (Nov 15, 2026)
