Canada unemployment rate in November

October 2026 CPI report will heavily influence Bank of Canada's decision. The Bank of Canada's December 9, 2026 policy decision will be significantly influenced by the October 2026 CPI report, published by Statistics Canada, and the broader interplay between inflation and labor market strength ^{[1][12][2][3][4][5]}. Following a 25 basis points (bps) cut in October 2025, the Bank of Canada's policy rate stood at 2.25%, which officials stated was appropriate if inflation and the economy unfolded as forecasted ^[2]. Prediction markets anticipate Canada's CPI Year-Over-Year Change in December 2026 to remain in the 2-3% range ^[1]. This aligns with the Bank of Canada's previous warnings about potential tariff-driven price increases pushing inflation higher, particularly given that inflation was approximately 2% in late 2025 ^[2]. Generally, a robust labor market combined with inflation at or above 2% would support either holding or increasing the policy rate ^[2][3][4][5].

Markets anticipate a Bank of Canada rate hike by October 2026. As of December 2025, markets were fully pricing a Bank of Canada rate hike by October 2026 ^[2][3][13]. The December 9, 2026 decision will also critically consider the labor market. The Canada unemployment rate in November 2026 is anticipated to be approximately 6.5-6.7%, based on current prediction market pricing ^{[2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]}. While a robust labor market combined with inflation near or above 2% could support a rate hold or increase, a weaker labor market or lower inflation might lead to a rate cut ^[2][3][4][5].

Canada's October 2026 unemployment rate stood around 6.3-6.4% amidst sector challenges. While specific sector-specific job loss details for October 2026 are not available, the implied overall unemployment rate for that month was approximately 6.3-6.4% ^[1]. This aligns with a broader pattern of economic resilience observed in late 2025, even in the face of sector-specific job losses, particularly in manufacturing and related industries impacted by U.S. tariffs ^[6][7]. For instance, in November 2025, the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% from 6.9% in October, with a net gain of 53,600 jobs, largely driven by part-time positions in healthcare and social assistance, despite losses in the wholesale, retail, and manufacturing sectors ^[2][7]. This underlying strength in the labor market led financial markets to fully anticipate a Bank of Canada rate hike by October 2026 ^[8][9].

Prediction markets forecast modest stability for Canada's November 2026 unemployment rate. Expectations for November 2026 suggest stability rather than significant deterioration, consistent with ongoing economic resilience despite sector-specific issues ^[3][4][5][6]. The Kalshi prediction market indicated a median implied unemployment rate of 6.65% for November 2026, with a low 4% probability of the rate exceeding 7.0% ^[3][4][5]. Similarly, Lumina Markets priced an 85% probability that the November 2026 rate would be above 6.2% and a 30% probability of it being above 6.6% ^[10]. This general market outlook points towards expectations of overall economic stability instead of a sharp downturn.

Canada's unemployment rate is projected to be substantially higher than that of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2026. For November 2026, Canada's unemployment rate is anticipated to range from 6.5% to 6.7%, with a median implied rate of 6.65% ^[1][2][3][4]. In contrast, the U.S. rate for the same month is expected to be approximately 4.1% to 4.2% ^[1][2][3][4]. This forecast indicates that Canada's unemployment rate will be roughly 2.4 to 2.5 percentage points above that of the U.S. during Q4 2026 ^[1][3][4].

Canada's labor market displays resilience following earlier economic challenges, indicating a potential shift. The trajectory leading up to Q4 2026 was notably affected by U.S. tariffs, imposed by President Trump starting in March 2025 on critical sectors, which initially caused the unemployment rate to climb before a recent recovery ^[5]. A significant development occurred in November 2025, when Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.5%, marking a 16-month low and accompanied by 53,600 net job gains ^[5][6]. Following this strong jobs data, markets are now fully pricing in a rate hike by the Bank of Canada by October 2026, suggesting an expected conclusion to its rate-cutting cycle ^[6][7]. Additionally, the youth unemployment rate in Canada, a demographic particularly sensitive to tariffs, demonstrated recovery, falling 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in November 2025 after reaching a 15-year high in September 2025 ^[5].

The U.S. labor market is expected to experience modest growth and continued softness through Q4 2026. In October 2026, non-farm payroll growth was projected to be 'Above 10,000' with a 90% probability ^[8], though two-month revisions were anticipated to be negative, specifically above -100,000 with a 91% probability ^[9]. The U.S. unemployment rate in October 2026 was likely around 4.1% to 4.2% ^[10]. Furthermore, there is a 75% probability that the U.S. unemployment rate at year-end 2026 (December) will remain above 4.0% ^[11][12], reinforcing expectations of sustained modest labor market softness.

Economists will scrutinize key metrics in the November 2026 Labour Force Survey. Beyond the headline unemployment rate, economists are keenly focused on the participation rate, average hourly wage growth of permanent employees, and the distinction between part-time and full-time job changes ^[3][2]. These indicators are crucial inputs for the Bank of Canada's December 2026 monetary policy decision, making the survey a significant factor for interest rate expectations ^[3][2]. The participation rate is specifically watched to differentiate genuine labor market improvements from demographic shifts, especially after government immigration curbs in November 2025 mechanically lowered Canada's unemployment rate by reducing the total labor force ^[2].

Wage growth and job composition offer critical insights into market health. Further scrutiny will be placed on the average hourly wage of permanent employees, which the Bank of Canada closely monitors for inflationary trends, and which held steady at 4% year-over-year in November 2025 ^[1][2]. The composition of job changes is also a major point of interest, following November 2025 which saw 63,000 part-time job gains while full-time positions declined by nearly 28,000 over the preceding two months ^[2]. Additionally, economists will observe youth unemployment, which for ages 15-24, decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in November 2025 ^[1][2]. Sectoral and provincial job data will also provide further insights; in November 2025, new jobs primarily emerged in health care, hospitality, and natural resources, while wholesale, retail, and manufacturing sectors experienced job losses ^[1].

Major financial institutions have not published explicit November 2026 forecasts. Explicit point forecasts from CIBC or Capital Economics for Canada's November 2026 unemployment rate were not found ^[1][2][3][5]. The Kalshi prediction market serves as the most reliable proxy for institutional expectations. This market indicates a median implied unemployment rate of 6.65% for November 2026, with the interquartile range (IQR) spanning 6.54% to 6.77% ^[1][2][3][5].

Market predictions suggest a slight increase from previous unemployment figures. This expected rate represents an increase from the Canada unemployment rate for October 2026, which resolved within the 6.2-6.4% range on Kalshi ^[4][1][2]. The specific Kalshi market (KXUE-CAN26NOV) is scheduled to resolve on December 4, 2026. Trading Economics is designated as the primary source for resolution, drawing its data from Statistics Canada's monthly Labour Force Survey release ^[6][2][7].

The November 2026 Labour Force Survey (LFS), referencing November 8–14, 2026, will be released by Statistics Canada on December 4, 2026, at 8:30 am ET ^[1][2][3][4]. This release is the final major data point prior to the Bank of Canada's December 9, 2026 rate decision ^[1][4]. Prediction markets currently price elevated probabilities for the November unemployment rate to exceed recent levels. Kalshi shows a 73% probability for the rate 'Above 6.6%', 50% for 'Above 6.7%', and 27% for 'Above 6.8%', resolving on December 4, 2026, at 7:30 am EST ^[5]. Aries prices 'Above 6.4%' at 81%, 'Above 6.6%' at 56%, and 'Above 6.8%' at 26%, with trading closing December 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET ^[6]. Public.com prices 'Above 6.5%' at 90%, 66% for 'Above 6.6%', and 15% for 'Above 6.8%' ^[7]. These figures follow Canada's unemployment rate rising to 6.7% in October 2026, a 0.2 percentage point increase from September's 6.5% ^[1][8]. Employment fell by 4,700 jobs in October, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and a cumulative loss of 110,000 jobs from August to October ^[1][8][9]. Youth workers, aged 15–24, accounted for two-thirds of these job losses over the past three months ^[10].

The Bank of Canada, which hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28, 2026, for the first time since 2023, is expected to hold rates at its December 9, 2026 decision according to Polymarket and Kalshi ^{[11][4][12][13]}. Underlying labor market dynamics show wage growth accelerated over the past two months, with 4.6% month-over-month SAAR in October and 5.5% in September 2026 ^[10]. Hours worked are tracking a sharp 2% quarter-over-quarter SAAR decline in Q4, unwinding Q3's large increase ^[10]. RBC Economics estimates Canada's breakeven employment rate at approximately -10,000 jobs per month in 2026, consistent with stable or improving unemployment given sharply slowing population growth ^[14]. Economists note underlying softness in the jobs market and signal slack for the Bank of Canada ^[9]. External risks include US tariffs affecting 5% of Canadian exports, which could result in 90,000 lost jobs ^[15]. Canada announced dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on US$20 billion of US goods plus a C$7.5 billion economic support package in August 2026 ^[16].