Short Answer

'DTF St. Louis' is expected to win exactly seven Emmy Awards, having already won six and remaining eligible for the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, which prediction markets price at 80% to win (market 65%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has remained static at a floor price because the outcome it tracks appears to have been rendered impossible. The contract likely corresponds to a single Emmy win for 'DTF St. Louis'. News reports from September 8 confirmed the show has already won six Emmys at the 78th Emmy Awards. This development makes a final tally of exactly one win a certainty to fail.
The complete absence of trading volume, with zero contracts exchanged, shows universal consensus on the outcome. The market price of 1.0% does not reflect a genuine probability but rather the lowest possible tick size for a contract that is certain to resolve to NO. All available information, including David Harbour's win for Outstanding Supporting Actor, preceded the observable market period, leaving no uncertainty for traders to price.
  • Exactly 7 awards is most likely, with six Emmys secured and one additional win expected.
  • Exactly 6 awards remains possible should the final eligible category not be secured.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Exactly 13 1.0% 0.0% The series has won six awards and is eligible for only one additional award, making 13 awards impossible.
Exactly 5 1.0% 0.0% The series has officially won six Emmy Awards, making five awards impossible.
Exactly 4 2.0% 0.0% The series has officially won six Emmy Awards, making four wins impossible.
Exactly 3 1.0% 0.0% The series has officially won six Emmy Awards, making three awards impossible.
Exactly 2 1.0% 0.0% The series has officially won six Emmy Awards, making two awards impossible.

Current Context

As of September 8, 'DTF St. Louis' holds six Emmy Awards from the 78th Emmy Awards [1]. These wins include Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for David Harbour [1][2][3][4][5] and an award for Supporting Performance for Linda Cardellini [1][6][3][5]. The series also received awards for writing, directing, picture editing, and cinematography [1].
The series received 13 nominations, with one major category pending [7][6]. 'DTF St. Louis' remains eligible for the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series award, which is scheduled for presentation during the main ceremony on September 14, 2026 [7][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Widow's Bay and DTF St. Louis Set the Pace on Night Two of 78th...televisionacademy.com
  2. 2David Harbour Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis', Thanks HBOdeadline.com
  3. 3Widow's Bay and DTF St. Louis Set the Pace on Night Two...emmys.com
  4. 4David Harbour | Emmy Awards and Nominationsemmys.com
  5. 5DTF St. Louis (TV Mini Series 2026) - Newsimdb.com
  6. 6Linda Cardellini Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis' - Deadlinedeadline.com
  7. 7DTF St. Louis | Emmy Awards and Nominations | Television Academytelevisionacademy.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Exactly 7

📈 September 08, 2026: 30.0pp spike

Price increased from 35.0% to 65.0%

What happened: On September 08, 2026, the 30.0 percentage point spike for the "Exactly 7" outcome was primarily driven by traditional news reports confirming that 'DTF St. Louis' had won 6 Emmy Awards after the Creative Arts Emmy Awards [1][2][3][4][5]. With the series having secured 6 awards and remaining eligible for additional categories, including Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, the market likely adjusted to a higher probability of the show winning precisely one more Emmy to reach a total of 7 [1][2][3][6]. Based on the available research, social media activity was irrelevant, as there is no evidence of specific posts or viral narratives influencing this price movement.

Outcome: Exactly 5

📉 September 07, 2026: 63.0pp drop

Price decreased from 64.0% to 1.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 63.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for 'DTF St. Louis' winning "Exactly 5" Emmys was the official announcement of its initial wins at the Creative Arts Emmys. On or before September 07, 2026, news broke that David Harbour and Linda Cardellini had won awards for Outstanding Supporting Actor and Actress, respectively [7][2][6][8]. This information dramatically shifted market probabilities, as the series had already secured 2 awards and would need to win precisely 3 more from its remaining nominations to hit a total of 5. Social media was irrelevant, as the provided research contains no evidence of social media activity influencing this specific price movement.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Linda Cardellini Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis' - Deadlinedeadline.com
  2. 2David Harbour Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis', Thanks HBOdeadline.com
  3. 3David Harbour Wins Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series at Emmyshollywoodreporter.com
  4. 4'DTF St. Louis' sets the pace on Night Two of the Emmysreelchicago.com
  5. 5Linda Cardellini Wins First Emmy for 'DTF St. Louis' · 10NEWS10news.org
  6. 6'DTF St. Louis' David Harbour Wins Emmy for Supporting Actor in...variety.com
  7. 7DTF St. Louis | Emmy Awards and Nominations | Television Academytelevisionacademy.com
  8. 8Particle: Linda Cardellini Wins First Emmy for DTF St. Louisparticle.news

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves based on the total number of Emmys won by ‘DTF St. Louis’. For each specific outcome (e.g., ‘Exactly 7’), a ‘YES’ resolves if the show wins that exact number of awards, and a ‘NO’ resolves if it wins any other number. The maximum payout date for this market is December 31, 2026, with no additional special settlement conditions specified beyond the official count of Emmys.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Exactly 7 $0.95 $0.29 65%
Exactly 6 $0.90 $0.93 21%
Exactly 4 $0.01 $1.00 2%
Exactly 9 $0.01 $1.00 2%
Exactly 1 $0.77 $1.00 1%
Exactly 10 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Exactly 11 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Exactly 12 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Exactly 13 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Exactly 2 $0.49 $1.00 1%
Exactly 3 $0.75 $1.00 1%
Exactly 5 $0.90 $0.99 1%
Exactly 8 $0.93 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

"DTF St. Louis" received 13 nominations for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards as of September 8, 2026, but a rule change moved 12 of these, including all acting categories, to the Creative Arts Emmys, leaving only the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series nomination for the main ceremony [1][2]. Prediction markets heavily favored the show to win Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series with approximately 80% implied probability as of September 7, 2026 [3][4], though consensus among traders suggested a total of zero or one Emmy win [5][6]. Ultimately, the HBO miniseries won at least one Emmy Award in 2026 for Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series, and David Harbour won an Emmy in 2026 for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for his role [7][8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1Emmys’ Category Change Really Screwed ‘DTF St. Louis’vulture.com
  2. 2DTF St. Louisen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3DTF St. Louis Emmy Limited Series Odds 2026 | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
  4. 4DTF St. Louis Hits 80% to Win Emmy for Outstanding Limited Seriespredictionhunt.com
  5. 5How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win?polymarket-insider.com
  6. 6How many Emmys will 'DTF St. Louis ' win? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  7. 7David Harbour | Emmy Awards and Nominations | Television Academyemmys.com
  8. 8David Harbour Wins First Emmy For 'Dtf St. Louis', Thanks... - IMDbimdb.com
  9. 9DTF St. Louis (TV Mini Series 2026) - News - IMDbimdb.com

5. Which of the 13 Primetime Emmy nominations for 'DTF St. Louis' have been resolved, and which major categories remain pending for the September 14th telecast?

Total Primetime Emmy Nominations13 [1][2]
Emmy Awards Won (as of Sept 8, 2026)6 [1][2]
Implied Probability to Win Outstanding Limited or Anthology SeriesAround 80% [3][4]
'DTF St. Louis' has secured six Emmys from its 13 nominations. The series garnered 13 Primetime Emmy nominations for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards [1][2]. By September 8, 2026, it had already claimed six Emmy Awards during the Creative Arts Emmy Awards ceremonies held on September 5 and 6, 2026 [1][2]. These resolved awards include recognition for writing (Steven Conrad), directing (Steven Conrad), cinematography, and picture editing [1][2]. Additionally, David Harbour received an award for Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series, and Linda Cardellini won for Supporting Actress in a Limited Series [1][2].
One major category remains pending for the September 14 telecast. The significant category of Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series is scheduled for the September 14, 2026, telecast [5][1][6]. Prediction markets suggest 'DTF St. Louis' is a strong contender to win this award, with implied probabilities frequently around 80% [3][4]. Given its current six wins, the series is projected to achieve a final win count of at least six, with the potential for more depending on the outcome of the remaining category [3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1David Harbour Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis', Thanks...deadline.com
  2. 2David Harbour Wins Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series at...hollywoodreporter.com
  3. 3How many Emmys will 'DTF St. Louis ' win? | Prediction Markets...coinbase.com
  4. 4DTF St. Louis Hits 80% to Win Emmy for Outstanding Limited Seriespredictionhunt.com
  5. 5DTF St. Louisen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6'DTF St. Louis' David Harbour Wins Emmy for Supporting...variety.com

6. How does the current 6-win total for 'DTF St. Louis' stack up against the all-time records for most Emmys won by a limited series in a single year?

DTF St. Louis 2026 Wins6 (as of September 8, 2026) [1][2][3][4]
DTF St. Louis 2026 Nominations13 [1][2][3]
All-time Limited Series Record13 (John Adams, 2008) [5]
'DTF St. Louis' has secured six Emmy Awards thus far. As of September 8, 2026, 'DTF St. Louis' has secured six Emmy Awards at the 2026 Creative Arts Emmys [1][2][3][4]. These wins represent six of its thirteen total nominations for the 2026 Emmy Awards [1][2][3][4]. The series remains eligible for additional accolades at the main Primetime Emmy telecast, where it holds a nomination for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series [3].
The series is aiming to surpass an existing Emmy record. The current six-win total for 'DTF St. Louis' positions it below the all-time record for most Emmy wins by a limited series in a single year [5]. This distinction belongs to 'John Adams,' which received thirteen Emmy Awards in 2008 [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1'DTF St. Louis' David Harbour Wins Emmy for Supporting Actor in...variety.com
  2. 2David Harbour Wins Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series at...hollywoodreporter.com
  3. 3Widow's Bay, DTF St. Louis and The Pitt win big at early Emmys...theglobeandmail.com
  4. 4Actor David Harbour won outstanding supporting actor for "DTF St...facebook.com
  5. 5Emmy records: Which of your favorites made history at TV's top honors?goldderby.com

7. What do 2026 guild awards (DGA, WGA, SAG) and critic consensus indicate about the likely winner for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?

Win Probability for Outstanding Limited or Anthology SeriesApproximately 80% (as of Sept 7, 2026) [1]
Primetime Emmy Awards DateSeptember 14, 2026 [1]
Prediction for Total Primetime Emmy Wins (excluding Creative Arts)0 or 1 win (>80% probability) [2]
DTF St. Louis is widely favored for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. The series is considered the overwhelming favorite to win the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series category at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, scheduled for September 14, 2026 [1]. As of September 7, 2026, prediction markets estimate an approximate 80% probability of DTF St. Louis securing this particular Emmy award [1].
Creative Arts wins are excluded from Primetime Emmy total predictions for DTF St. Louis. During the Creative Arts Emmy Awards held on September 5–6, 2026, cast members David Harbour and Linda Cardellini each received Emmys for Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series, respectively [3][4][5]. However, prediction markets focusing on the total number of Primetime Emmy wins for DTF St. Louis explicitly do not include these Creative Arts awards [2][6]. These markets indicate a strong consensus, with a probability exceeding 80%, that DTF St. Louis will achieve either 0 or 1 win at the live Primetime Emmy Awards [2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1DTF St. Louis Hits 80% to Win Emmy for Outstanding Limited Seriespredictionhunt.com
  2. 2How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win?polymarket-insider.com
  3. 3David Harbour Wins Emmy for Supporting Actor in Limited...imdb.com
  4. 4Linda Cardellini and David Harbour won their first Emmys for “DTF...facebook.com
  5. 5Actor David Harbour won outstanding supporting actor for "DTF St...facebook.com
  6. 6https://polymarket.com/pl/event/how-many-emmys-will-dtf-st-louis-win-20260730202918polymarket.com

8. How does 'DTF St. Louis' compare to its primary competitors, such as 'Widow's Bay', in the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series category?

DTF St. Louis Main Emmy WinDavid Harbour won Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie [1][2][3]
Widow's Bay Total WinsEight awards in early 2026 Emmy ceremonies [3][4][5]
DTF St. Louis Primetime Emmy Prediction0-1 wins at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards (excluding Creative Arts) [6][7]
DTF St. Louis secured recognition amid strong category contenders. The series was a primary contender in the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series category, competing against titles such as Beef, All Her Fault, The Beast in Me, and Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette [8][9][10]. A notable achievement for the series was David Harbour's Emmy win for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie [1][2][3]. The stars of DTF St. Louis celebrated their Creative Emmy wins on September 7, 2026 [11].
Widow's Bay dominated early Emmy wins, surpassing DTF St. Louis. Despite its recognition, DTF St. Louis faced significant competition from Widow's Bay, which notably secured eight awards during the early Emmy ceremonies in 2026 [3][4][5]. Prediction markets reflected low expectations for DTF St. Louis at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards (excluding Creative Arts), forecasting 0–1 wins due to the intense competition within the limited series field [6][7]. While sources confirm DTF St. Louis as an Emmy-winning series, a specific total count of wins for the 78th Emmy Awards or the Outstanding Limited Anthology Series category was not explicitly stated in the provided information [11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1David Harbour Wins Emmy for Supporting Actor in Limited...imdb.com
  2. 2David Harbour Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis', Thanks...reddit.com
  3. 32026 Emmys Night 2: Big Wins For 'Widow's Bay,' 'DTF St. Louis...tvinsider.com
  4. 4'Widow's Bay' dominates with 8 Emmys at early ceremony... - PBSpbs.org
  5. 5Rob Reiner wins posthumous Emmy for The Bear, as Widow's Bay...theguardian.com
  6. 6How many Emmys will “DTF St. Louis” win?polymarket-insider.com
  7. 7https://polymarket.com/pl/event/how-many-emmys-will-dtf-st-louis-win-20260730202918polymarket.com
  8. 8Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series 2026 - Nominees & Winners Emmy Awards | Television Academytelevisionacademy.com
  9. 92026 Emmy predictions: Best Limited Series rankings and oddsgoldderby.com
  10. 10EMMY RACE: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Seriesthetvratingsguide.com
  11. 11'DTF St. Louis' stars celebrate Creative Emmy wins - AP Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org

9. What is the historical correlation between a high number of Creative Arts Emmy wins and winning the top prize for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?

Creative Arts Emmy Wins6 (as of September 6, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Total Emmy Nominations13 (for 78th Emmy Awards) [6][1][2][4]
Prediction Market Chance for Top Prize80% (as of September 7, 2026) [7]
DTF St. Louis has already garnered six Creative Arts Emmy Awards. The series secured these honors at the 78th Creative Arts Emmy Awards, which were presented on September 6, 2026, during the Creative Arts/Night Two ceremonies [1][2][3][4][5]. With 13 total nominations for the 78th Emmy Awards, DTF St. Louis remains a contender for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, an award scheduled for the Primetime ceremony on September 14, 2026 [6][1][2][4].
Key Creative Arts wins include supporting actor categories. Among its Creative Arts Emmy wins, DTF St. Louis received awards for Outstanding Supporting Actor (David Harbour) and Outstanding Supporting Actress (Linda Cardellini) [1][2][3][4][5]. Following these early victories, prediction markets, as of September 7, 2026, indicate an approximately 80% likelihood for DTF St. Louis to win the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series [7].
Historical correlation data is not available in the provided information. The available information does not contain analysis regarding the historical correlation between a high number of Creative Arts Emmy wins and ultimately winning the top prize for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. However, the current prediction market odds strongly suggest a high likelihood for DTF St. Louis to win the ultimate award [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Widow's Bay and DTF St. Louis Set the Pace on Night Two of 78th...televisionacademy.com
  2. 2Linda Cardellini Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis' - Deadlinedeadline.com
  3. 3Actor David Harbour won outstanding supporting actor for "DTF St...facebook.com
  4. 4'DTF St. Louis' David Harbour Wins Emmy for Supporting Actor in...variety.com
  5. 5David Harbour Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis', Thanks HBOdeadline.com
  6. 6DTF St. Louis | Emmy Awards and Nominations | Television Academytelevisionacademy.com
  7. 7DTF St. Louis Hits 80% to Win Emmy for Outstanding Limited Seriespredictionhunt.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The limited series DTF St. Louis won six Emmy Awards at the 78th Emmy Awards' Night Two as of September 8, 2026 [1]. These included Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series for Linda Cardellini [1][2][3] and Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series for David Harbour [1][4][3]. The series also won for Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series, Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series, Outstanding Picture Editing, and Outstanding Cinematography [1][2][4].
Prior to this, DTF St. Louis was eligible for one additional award, Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, slated for presentation on September 14, 2026 [2][4]. Prediction markets had priced the show at approximately 80% to win this final award as of September 7, 2026, projecting a total of seven Emmys [5]. DTF St. Louis did win Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, with David Harbour receiving an Emmy as an Executive Producer for the series [6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: December 31, 2026
  • Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (6)
  1. 1Widow's Bay and DTF St. Louis Set the Pace on Night Two of 78th...televisionacademy.com
  2. 2Linda Cardellini Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis' - Deadlinedeadline.com
  3. 3Widow's Bay and DTF St. Louis Set the Pace on Night Two...emmys.com
  4. 4David Harbour Wins First Emmy For 'DTF St. Louis', Thanks HBOdeadline.com
  5. 5DTF St. Louis Hits 80% to Win Emmy for Outstanding Limited Seriespredictionhunt.com
  6. 6David Harbour | Emmy Awards and Nominationsemmys.com