Episode summary
It's not 1929, but it might be - Andrew Ross Sorkin | TCAF 224
Ask The Compound
· · Hosts: Michael Batnick, Josh Brown · Guests: Andrew Ross Sorkin
Summary
Andrew Ross Sorkin argues that today is not 1929, even if the comparison is tempting. He says the big differences are structural: the U.S. now has the SEC, FDIC insurance, capital requirements, modern market plumbing, and a policy playbook that reflexively floods the system with money in a crisis. He also says 1929 was not a single collapse that mechanically produced the Great Depression; it was the first domino in a chain of policy mistakes, and the real lesson is that debt and leverage matter more than headlines.
The conversation turns on whether the current market looks more like 1999 or some newer mix of speculation and concentration. Sorkin says there was clear mania in 2021 around SPACs, crypto, GameStop, and meme trading, but he does not see the same broad euphoria now. He thinks the hottest excesses have already been “taken out” in stocks like CoreWeave and Circle, while the larger pockets of risk may be in private markets where price discovery has not yet happened.
He also explains how he built his book: by chasing primary sources, including long-hidden New York Fed board minutes, diaries, depositions, letters, and photographs. On his CNBC work, he says his real edge is curiosity, not performance, and that he likes moving between business, politics, and culture because asking people questions has always come naturally.
Key takeaways
- Andrew Ross Sorkin says 1929 cannot be cleanly repeated because modern markets have regulators, deposit insurance, capital rules, and faster information flow.
- Sorkin argues that 1929 was only the first domino; the Great Depression was deepened by policy mistakes and leverage, not just the crash itself.
- The host and Sorkin agree that the biggest speculative excesses of 2021 were more like a bubble than today's market, and many of those names have already been cut in half or worse.
- Sorkin thinks the most dangerous excess may now be in private markets, where tokenization and semi-liquid products could force price discovery and reveal lower values.
- Sorkin says his reporting on 1929 was driven by curiosity and rare primary sources, especially New York Fed board minutes that had never been disclosed before.
Notable quotes
“Back in 1929, there was no SEC. There was no insider trading rules manipulation. It was legal, normalized. It was it was completely cool”
“I think the truth is maybe it's 1999. We can discuss that”
“The first time I started thinking about it was actually during GameStop”
How the episode opens
That's where I'm going. Okay. — You get comfortable with the hot. — Okay. — Well, what were you you were thinking short sleeves? — I was thinking to go I could go full squawk on you. Just take the coat off. I could do whatever you I could I could go down to go down to my t-shirt.
So, Andrew, I was with my uh my sister and brother-in-law for uh for Hanukkah. — Okay, we're going. — And he said like uh if you want to go go — Like uh anybody special coming up on the show that I might know? I said
Uh yeah, actually he's a big he's a big New York fan. I said, "Yeah, Andrew Andrew Ros is coming." He goes, "You go to the same temple." — What did you say? — Yeah. — Wow. — Yeah. How about that? — That's Wait, am I not Let me hear you.
Andrew goes to the same temple as my son. — Same temple. Same temple. — They share a synagogue. Funny. Yeah. — Small world. — Um, — But not the synagogue. So, I grew up going to Westchester Reformed Temple. Not Not Westchester. — What town? What town in Westchester did you go?
You are a Westchester guy. — Scarsdale, New York. Josh and I are Merrick, — Right? — We're we're Long Island of Westchester or of the South. — Oh, but you know, or you don't probably know this. — Um, — My father grew up in Merrick.
I did not know that. — Uh, add that to the list. — Hawthorne. Uh, — Hawthorne. — North. Is that North Merrick? — Yeah, right near the right near the high school. — No — On the back side of the high school.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 1929 vs today
- spac mania
- art of the interview
- pattern recognition pitfalls
- market history
Companies and tickers mentioned
- CNBC
Watch the episode
Watch “It's not 1929, but it might be - Andrew Ross Sorkin | TCAF 224” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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