Episode summary
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet | TCAF 267
Ask The Compound
· · 1 hr 11 min · Hosts: Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Guests: Dan Clifton
Summary
Dan Clifton argues the post-midterm market reaction is really a policy repricing, not just an emotional swing. He says the election signaled a broad backlash against the data-center buildout, especially in Texas and other key states, and that investors quickly realized the next phase of AI spending could face local, state, and federal pushback. In his view, that helps explain the sharp selloff in Nvidia, semis, and other parts of the AI supply chain, even as some hyperscalers held up better.
He also frames the election as a sign of a deeper populist realignment. Clifton says voters have been ejecting the party in power in nearly every federal election since the financial crisis, and he thinks the country is moving toward a more moderation-driven, top-vs-bottom politics rather than a simple left-vs-right divide. He expects that lower oil prices, easier rates, and a better deficit outlook could all emerge if the Iran situation cools and data-center capex slows.
The hosts push him on whether the market is overreacting, and Clifton says some of the reaction is overdone but still real. He emphasizes that local opposition to data centers is already blocking projects, that Texas is now a major battleground, and that investors need to adjust earnings and capex assumptions before the policy picture clears.
Key takeaways
- Clifton says the election created a policy shock for AI and data-center stocks, especially in Texas, where local and state pushback could slow capex.
- He argues the market’s selloff in semis reflects a repricing of future spending, not just a one-day political headline.
- Clifton says lower oil prices and fewer Fed hikes could follow if the Iran situation de-escalates and data-center demand cools.
- He thinks the broader election was a vote for moderation, not a pure ideological swing, because many winning Democrats in red states are not Bernie Sanders-style candidates.
- Clifton says investors should watch governors and state-level rules, because local opposition is already killing projects before federal policy even matters.
Notable quotes
“We had six of those happen Tuesday night. So, it like five in 35 years, we had six happen”
“We've had 11 federal elections since the financial crisis and the voters of this country have removed the party in power in 10 of those 11 elections”
“I would argue we have four political parties in the United States. Two in the Republican and two in the Democrat”
“38 of them went against the industry. If you look at meta meta, I mean, they not only did they go after a meta data center, they recalled the three city commissioners”
“if you are not on if you're not at the table, you're on the menu in Washington”
How the episode opens
Are you based in DC? — I am. Yeah. So, we're we're like two or three blocks from the White House. And when when Obama won, we were we were in our office and you can feel the college students, you know, partying in front of the White House in 2008. You had something similar in 2012. We never had that ever again
Until the next one — Until Tuesday night. — So, we went we went 14 years before you had it. And the park police were not reigning them in. They were playing like, you know, Katy Perry Party in the USA. You know,
That's Miley Cyrus. Katy Perry. Katy. I'm sorry. Yes. — Sorry about that. But it's like one of you educated. — They would have been they would have been playing um fight uh fight song is Rachel Platin. — They would have been playing firework.
Firework. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Yeah. — That's my favorite. — Okay. Um, I had a I had a little girl in in in that's made in uh in dance. — Oh, yeah. — So, I went I was at all the recital and I know everything.
Yep. — All right. This is amazing. I'm so happy you're here, my man. — What a coincidence that you were in town. — Yeah. Incredible. — Perfect timing. — Perfect. — All right, let's pull up. So, you were here in February. — Yep. — And you flagged this. Yep.
As something to be mindful of, and of course, nobody was. Um, but just this whole idea that things in Washington change, things nationally change — This time, and we're going to get into more of this, but like I feel like this was like somebody flipped a switch and it only took two years cuz I was on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 24 for election night.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midterm election market reaction
- ai stock selloff
- data center backlash
- fed rates outlook
- drug pricing and glp-1s
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- Nvidia
- Baird Strategas
Watch the episode
Watch “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet | TCAF 267” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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