Episode summary
Tom Lee and Dan Ives Explain Everything | TCAF 260
Ask The Compound
· · 54 min · Hosts: Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Guests: Dan Ives, Tom Lee
Summary
The discussion argues that the market can keep climbing despite higher rates, political noise, and a long list of headline risks because earnings have stayed strong and valuations have actually compressed relative to profit growth. Tom Lee says the Fed meeting and expected hike could paradoxically fuel a rally if it removes uncertainty, while Dan Ives says companies have adapted to black swans by cutting costs and pushing earnings higher. Both frame the current setup as a young, multi-year tech bull market rather than a late-cycle blowoff.
A major theme is the AI capex boom. Ives says chip demand remains far above supply, U.S. tech is ahead of China in semis, hyperscalers, and frontier models, and every dollar of AI spending cascades through software, cyber, and infrastructure. The hosts press on Anthropic’s public call to slow development, but both guests argue the real issue is politics and regulation, not a true pause in innovation. They also warn that if the U.S. slows down while China does not, China gains an advantage.
The conversation broadens to robotics, physical AI, blockchain, and financial services. Lee and Ives argue those areas could create a new productivity cycle, benefit software and financial stocks, and eventually justify much higher multiples for names like Apple, Nvidia, and Palantir.
Key takeaways
- Tom Lee argues the Fed hike could be bullish if it ends uncertainty and confirms the market’s pessimism is already priced in.
- Dan Ives says AI chip demand is about 13-to-1 versus supply and expects the shortage to persist until around early 2029.
- Both guests argue software stocks are beneficiaries of AI, not victims, after the March “SaaS apocalypse” proved overdone.
- Ives says the U.S. is ahead of China in semis, hyperscalers, and frontier models, while China still leads in some robotics and energy areas.
- Lee and Ives see robotics and physical AI as the next major capex cycle, with potential to create new productivity rather than just replace jobs.
- They both think financial firms and blockchain infrastructure could be re-rated as tech-like businesses as AI changes payment and settlement flows.
Notable quotes
“I think this is setting up for a really bullish moment because we know pessimism is high and we know earnings are in good shape”
“for the first time in 30 years, the US is way ahead of China when it comes to tech”
“I think investors are underestimating earnings by probably 25 30% next few years”
“I think it is uh you anyone who owns Nvidia should take comfort”
“narratives create the opportunities”
How the episode opens
The energy in this room is outrageous. Anything you want to get off your chest before I start? — Couldn't have scripted a better time for you to be on the show. — It's crazy. — Can you feel this right now? — It's not always straightforward to translate those inputs into what the stock price is going to move.
100%. — It's not binary. — And that's my speech. — And then 6 months later, the market crashes. And then leave that aside. — I think we could stop paying taxes cuz the robots are the ones that are capped. And then what?
It's almost like asking me in 1996 whether or not we're going to be in a bubble in 2000. — If half the stocks can't even keep up with treasuries, there's something similar here. — This is the trick, I think, of investing that when you study history, like you understand all the risks, all the headline, like all the problems that can go wrong and your downside risk is well, what if they don't? buy this
I only like the beginnings of things. I like when a when a rally feels like it's in the face of challenges. — Very confident in my assertions. This just shows like kind of like the evolution of how an economy goes. I have had so many friends kill their careers buying new lows.
Pay attention because we will see this again. This is not like a one and done. This happens again and again and again. They'd be calling us and be like, "What? What the's going on?" The first go around here was the most fun I had.
I lived in silence for most of my career and you guys were the first uh place where I went and it's certainly been fun to be on the show with you guys.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai capex
- data center boom
- fed rates and macro risks
- us china ai race
- semiconductor selloff
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AAPL
- PLTR
- NVDA
- CSCO
- DELL
- TSLA
- Apple
- Palantir
- Anthropic
- Nvidia
- Cisco
- Dell
- Tesla
- OpenAI
- SpaceX
Watch the episode
Watch “Tom Lee and Dan Ives Explain Everything | TCAF 260” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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