Episode summary
People Hate These 5 Stocks But They'll Be Wrong | TCAF 261
Ask The Compound
· · 1 hr 6 min · Hosts: Josh Brown, Michael Batnick · Guests: Jonathan Boyar
Summary
Jonathan Boyar argues that buy-and-hold only works when it is really continuous re-evaluation: great businesses can still be bad investments if the starting valuation is too rich, and trimming can be a mistake if it breaks a winner too early. He says stock picking has gotten harder because market concentration, passive flows, and fast-moving basket trades now push money toward the same large winners and punish a lot of otherwise solid companies.
The conversation repeatedly returns to how AI-themed selling is creating opportunities in stocks the market is misclassifying as threatened. Boyar says Broadridge, Booking, Airbnb, and even Uber are being sold off for reasons he thinks are overstated, because their businesses are more durable than the tape suggests. He also notes that some names can stay derated for a while, so the work is to find businesses with real competitive advantages and wait patiently for the market to catch up.
Several specific ideas come up: Broadridge as a toll-booth-style financial infrastructure business, Booking and Airbnb as travel platforms that AI agents still need, Pool Corp as a cheap but cyclical maintenance distributor, Burger King as a turnaround, and Comcast as a cheap but more debated value idea. Across all of them, Boyar’s core point is that investors should separate business quality from stock performance, because the two are not always aligned.
Key takeaways
- Jonathan Boyar says buy-and-hold is not a strategy by itself; it only works when investors keep re-evaluating business quality and valuation.
- He thinks market concentration and basket trading are making stock picking harder, because money keeps flowing to the same mega-cap winners.
- Boyar argues that Broadridge, Booking, and Airbnb are being sold too aggressively on AI-disruption fears that do not match the underlying businesses.
- He says Uber remains a strong business with long-term earnings power, even if the stock market is slow to recognize it.
- Pool Corp looks cheap after a long drawdown, but Boyar still treats it as a cyclical name and not a guaranteed recovery.
- Burger King is in the middle of a turnaround, while Comcast is cheap but less compelling than his higher-conviction ideas.
Notable quotes
“I think buy and hold is a result of an investment strategy, not an investment strategy in and of itself”
“Money moves to where it is treated best. And money is treated best with the best companies”
“Deep deep value is maybe the worst strategy on the planet”
“this is a great business. It's, as you said, it's I don't want to say it's an annuity like business, but it's but it's close”
How the episode opens
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Whether you're exploring crypto for the first time or looking to deepen your knowledge, let Gayscale be your guide. All right. All right, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the compound and friends.
I'm so excited. We have a return guest today. Jonathan Buyer is a principal the Boy Value Group which includes Boy Asset Management and Boyarm's Intrinsic Value Research, an independent equity research boutique founded in 1975, whose subscribers include some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, and family offices.
He also hosts the world according to Boyar podcast. Jonathan, welcome back to the show. We're so happy to see you.
Thanks for having me back.
Yeah. — When when did we have Jonathan on? — I was going to say we had him in the summer during the SAS uh early late spring, early summer during the SAS apocalypse and uh a lot of the stuff he was talking about ended up being right. We've seen some pretty big comebacks in some of his technology names. Do I have that?
Not all not not all the stuff. — Not everything, but like nobody's nobody's perfect. — Broken clock twice a day. No, no, don't say that. Well, you you were uh I think I think pretty bullish on uh CRM. — Y — And the stock was hammered at that point and obviously the picture has now changed.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- stock picking difficulty
- buy and hold risks
- market concentration
- ai-driven stock selloffs
- value investing opportunities
Companies and tickers mentioned
- UBER
- BR
- BKNG
- ABNB
- POOL
- CMCSA
- MGM
- Uber
- Broadridge
- Booking Holdings
- Airbnb
- Pool Corp
- Burger King
- Comcast
- MGM
Watch the episode
Watch “People Hate These 5 Stocks But They'll Be Wrong | TCAF 261” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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