Episode summary
Stocks Took the Stairs Down and the Elevator Up | TCAF 237
Ask The Compound
· · Hosts: Michael Batnick · Guests: Sam Ro, Steve Sosnick
Summary
The discussion centers on why equities barely flinched after a major geopolitical scare, even as oil, yields, and rate-cut expectations moved sharply against risk assets. A guest argues that investors have been trained by years of fast rebounds to treat shocks as temporary, while improving earnings estimates helped offset the macro damage. The host and guests frame the move as unusual: stocks effectively slid down the stairs and then rode the elevator back up.
A big part of the conversation is the widening split inside the market. Software names are getting crushed on fears that AI will disrupt business models and compress terminal values, while semiconductors and hardware are ripping as hyperscalers keep spending on data centers, chips, and infrastructure. Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir, CrowdStrike, ServiceNow, and Palo Alto Networks come up as examples of names being repriced around the AI trade.
They also debate what happens if OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX eventually come public at huge valuations, and whether the market can digest that supply. Later, the panel makes the case that international stocks may still have room to run, helped by cheaper valuations, shareholder-friendly reforms in parts of Asia, and a rotation away from U.S. mega-cap concentration. Earnings season and Fed cuts remain central backdrop questions.
Key takeaways
- A guest says the market’s muted reaction to a geopolitical shock reflects years of investors learning to buy dips quickly after fast recoveries.
- The panel says software is being sold off on AI disruption fears while semis and hardware are benefiting from relentless infrastructure spending.
- A guest warns that possible public listings from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX could create a supply-demand problem for the market.
- The panel argues international stocks still look constructive because of value, reform momentum, and less dependence on the AI software trade.
- Rate-cut expectations have been marked down sharply, which one guest says matters because it offsets part of the market’s resilience.
Notable quotes
“the market took the stairs down and the elevator back up and it's usually the exact opposite”
“Whatever happens with this war, the AI complex is likely to lead any true sustainable market”
How the episode opens
Sam is here, everybody. — Sam. All right. So, Sam, — Sam, good to see you. I just see you. — I haven't seen you since. Um, — What do we think about — A new Blood Sport? — Uh, I I mean, let's I'm not paying for it, so yeah, the answer is yes. I'm willing to try it out. Uh, but what do you mean?
New cast, full reboot, or one of these things that — No, I think it's like I I don't know. Honestly, I I tried to look this morning in preparation for talking to you on what they're doing. — Yeah. — And there's not much. Not much.
Yeah. It's always like it's the kind of thing that you really want to to do well. Like the When's the last time like a uh a sequel or a uh a reboot has done well outside of like Top Gun 2?
Um Yeah. I don't know. Like a full Oh, the new He-Man looks horrendous. — Yeah. — My god, that's an 80s movie. — You know what I'm actually kind of interested in? Have you seen like the trailers or the teasers for the new Street Fighter movie?
Uh there's a new Street Fighter No, — There's a new Street Fighter movie coming out and uh it looks like um it's pretty clear that they're not trying to take themselves too seriously, which I think is always the right move when it comes to stuff like this.
Oh, speaking of Vanam, he was in the Street Fighter movie. That was a — Oh, yeah. You're right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That was terrible. But yeah, — That was another movie where they like tried to make it serious. It's like an actual action movie with like him doing this stuff, but it's like these are all cartoon characters.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market winners and losers
- international trade
- earnings season preview
- rate cut expectations
- disney layoffs
Companies and tickers mentioned
- DIS
- Disney
- OpenAI
Watch the episode
Watch “Stocks Took the Stairs Down and the Elevator Up | TCAF 237” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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