Episode summary
When Will the AI Bubble Pop? | TCAF 198
Ask The Compound
· · Hosts: Michael Batnick · Guests: Joe Fahmy, Shay Boloor
Summary
The conversation argues that the market is still in the early-to-middle stages of a bull run powered by AI, even after a sharp run from the April lows and a series of scary pullbacks. The host and the guests repeatedly frame the current cycle as comparable to the 1995 to 1999 internet era: volatile, over-earnest, but still with room to run because the underlying technology is changing business behavior and capital spending. One guest says he thinks the new bull market began in late 2022 or early 2023, while the other sees a second wave of AI winners emerging after the first wave of hardware and infrastructure names.
Key takeaways
- The guests argue the AI bull market is still early, with one guest calling it roughly year two of a four-to-five-year cycle.
- One guest says the next phase of AI winners will be software and data infrastructure names built on top of the hardware stack, not just Nvidia and the Mag 7.
- The guests see Palantir as an example of a second-stage AI winner because it sits in the middle of enterprise AI adoption and government use cases.
- Both guests say Apple has fallen behind in AI and no longer looks like a growth stock, despite its size and brand strength.
- One guest’s bull case for Tesla is no longer cars, but physical AI, autonomy, and humanoid robotics as a long-duration platform shift.
Notable quotes
“The biggest winners of this era won't be those names. Although Nvidia, it's hard to say they're not the biggest winners”
“The hidden gems of that era were the online marketplaces that were built on top of them, the Google's, the Amazons”
“I think the rule 40 score is kind of where the eyeballs need to be of do they have an advantage”
“I just don't see any explosive growth from here. So, I'm going to say it flat out honestly about Apple”
How the episode opens
So, can we play? Can we hit play or do I have to do that, John? No, I can do it.
Hit it up. Hit it up. Play it right now.
Yeah, John. I'm proud of you. That's why we're going off the charts with the help of Joe Fammy.
He's the uh portfolio manager at Zor Capital LLC. He's also the founder of JoeFammy.com Education. Uh because he's got a unique take on this situation.
When you look back, we've had a bull market in all things AI going back to late 2022, early 2023. You can argue about the exact start dateful because that's when Nvidia, the backbone of artificial intelligence, delivered one of the greatest earnings report I've ever seen. And aside from a detour earlier this year, the stocks never really looked back.
We know that in terms of money-making potential, AI is more of an enterprise technology than a consumer technology. But Fing points out that chat GBT was still the fastest application to reach 100 million users. So this was this was only to do the podcast if you play this whole thing.
So, did you notice that he went from the he went from fammy to and back and forth fammy four different ways? Fammy, fammy, fam, flappy, Samsonite, fudgy, everything. It was great, dude.
That That is There's millions of people that see that. I was be It was beyond grateful. Did your phone blow up?
Um, my phone never blows up. No calls. Um, no.
I got some emails. It was though. When was that clip?
Like last week. Oh, nice. So, I've never met you.
Um, have you guys actually No, we met because you beat me in the stock twitch award. Oh, creator of the year. I was one I was the one nominees.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai bubble
- ai stocks
- market cycle
- mag 7
- tesla bull case
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AAPL
- TSLA
- Apple
- Tesla
Watch the episode
Watch “When Will the AI Bubble Pop? | TCAF 198” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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