Episode summary

Amazon Soars on Fastest Cloud Growth in Years

Bloomberg Surveillance · · Guests: Dan Ives

Amazon Soars on Fastest Cloud Growth in Years – Bloomberg Surveillance

Summary

Dan Ives argues that the latest megacap tech earnings are confirming a broad AI-driven spending cycle rather than ending it. He calls it a “surprise upgrade cycle,” saying the demand backdrop is improving in China and that the market is still underestimating the scale of the fourth industrial revolution. He says investors should view heavy spending by Microsoft, Google and Amazon as an arms race that is suppressing near-term earnings but building long-term value.

Amazon is the key proof point in his view. Ives says Amazon Web Services’ strength marks an inflection point for the stock and could change how investors think about Amazon’s cloud position versus Microsoft and Google. He points to the company’s $30 billion bond sale and the 125 billion demand as evidence that the market is willing to fund this expansion, and he sees the stock re-rating toward $343 and $350.

He also says Apple may benefit from a Google Gemini partnership once the DOJ case clears the way, and he is bullish on Tesla shareholders approving Elon Musk’s compensation package and xAI ownership vote. On Penn State, he says the job is one of the best in college football and expects the school to pursue major coaching candidates.

Key takeaways

  • Ives says AI spending is a long-cycle “arms race,” and he thinks Wall Street is still underestimating it.
  • He sees Amazon Web Services as an inflection point that could reset how investors value Amazon versus Microsoft and Google.
  • He says Amazon’s $30 billion bond deal drew $125 billion of demand, showing strong appetite for cloud and AI capex.
  • Ives expects Apple to pursue a significant Google Gemini partnership if legal hurdles clear.
  • He thinks Tesla shareholders will approve Musk’s pay package and the xAI ownership piece on November 6.

Notable quotes

“It's a surprise upgrade cycle”

— Dan Ives

“this is an arms race. You want companies to spend now free cash for earnings obviously gets hit”

— Dan Ives at 1:51

“I think it's an inflection point quarter for Amazon and I think this now is going to change the view of Amazon when it comes to the cloud piece”

— Dan Ives at 3:44

“this is a fourth industrial revolution and you want all these coming from Microsoft to Google to matter to what we see with Amazon”

— Dan Ives at 2:00

“I think what you're seeing now, it's spreading”

— Dan Ives at 2:21

How the episode opens

It's a surprise upgrade cycle. I mean, that's the reality. You know, for so long we've always talked about, you know, these upgrade cycles, a potential super cycle, and this is a surprise upgrade cycle.

And I think especially what we're seeing in China. Well, China was a decliner. Now you start to see that increasing year over year.

That's an industry that's coming up in terms of numbers. The New York City cab drivers embarrassed to Apple last six, nine months. So that's this is a bullish scenario, especially leading into what I believe now will be the year of a I me a Google partnership for Apple 75 200.

Share that. Let's go back to that. What is Apple's strategy going to be or should be, do you think, today?

It's invisible? Right. Today in the party that started at 9 p.m., it's now 10:30 p.m..

That party goes to 4 a.m., Cook and Apple, they're on the outside working behind the velvet ropes. They all can do the party through the window. But what I believe they're going to do now, once Google one that DOJ is sued, that clears the road for them to do a significant Gemini partnership where ultimately the consumer revolution goes to Cupertino.

Well, look, we're talking air spend. We've got to talk metaphor because they're the complete opposite of Apple, Right. They're just throwing the kitchen sink at a right now.

But Wall Street, are they approving of the spending that is doing in that space? Look, in my opinion, it's a table pounder when that stock sold off. Yes.

Because my whole view is this is an arms race. You want companies to spend now free cash for earnings obviously gets hit. But the reality is, is that this is a fourth industrial revolution and you want all these coming from Microsoft to Google to matter to what we see with Amazon.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • aws growth
  • ai capex
  • cloud competition
  • megacap earnings
  • data center supply

Companies and tickers mentioned

  • AMZN
  • MSFT
  • GOOGL
  • GOOG
  • META
  • Amazon.com Inc.
  • Microsoft Corp.
  • Alphabet Inc. (Google)
  • Meta Platforms Inc.
  • OpenAI
  • Wedbush Securities
  • William Blair

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