Episode summary
Iran’s Record Internet Block Stokes Fears Crackdown May Continue
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Guests: Golnar Motevalli
Summary
Golnar Motevalli said the biggest near-term variable for Iran is what President Trump does next, because fresh U.S. military deployments and shifting rhetoric could be reflecting diplomatic conversations that are changing his calculations. She also argued that Iran’s internet blackout matters because it can last longer than expected and helps the state control the flow of information while the crackdown continues.
On the political side, Motevalli said the Islamic republic still has a base of support, but as a governing idea it is a “spent force” and has not meaningfully reformed. She compared Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s stance with the Shah’s final concessions before the 1979 revolution, saying Khamenei appears determined not to repeat a move that could weaken the system.
On the economic front, she said any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would probably push oil prices higher and aggravate global inflation. But she added that Iran’s regional position is weaker than it was two years ago, with Hezbollah, Hamas and Bashar al-Assad all diminished or gone, which could make a shutdown strategy less attractive.
Key takeaways
- Golnar Motevalli said Trump’s next move on Iran is the critical variable because it could be shaped by diplomacy behind the scenes.
- Motevalli said Iran’s internet blackout is both a control tool and a sign the crackdown may last longer than many expect.
- Motevalli argued Khamenei is trying to avoid the Shah’s mistake of offering concessions before a regime collapse.
- She said a Hormuz disruption would likely spike oil prices and worsen global inflation.
- Motevalli said Iran’s regional leverage is weaker now because Hezbollah and Hamas have been weakened and Bashar al-Assad is gone.
Notable quotes
“I think obviously what President Trump does next with regards to Iran is going to be critical”
“the extent to which this Internet blackout that the state has imposed on Iran is going to new and how long we should expect it to last”
“as an idea, as even a philosophical idea, it's it's a spent force”
“he doesn't want to do the same thing”
“I think so. Quite possibly. What it will do is it will definitely lead to a increase, a spike in oil prices”
How the episode opens
I think obviously what President Trump does next with regards to Iran is going to be critical. Everybody's keeping a sharp eye on that. And he's kept us very busy over the past few days.
And we're getting every day there seems to be fresh news, whether it whether it comes to U.S. military deployments or whether it's a statement from Trump that softens that some softer on on Iran. It seems to change.
And I think what that tells us possibly is that there are conversations happening in the background diplomatically that may be literally changing the calculation for Trump. You know, on a daily basis, we don't know. I'm just speculating.
But I think that's going to be critical. And also the extent to which this Internet blackout that the state has imposed on Iran is going to new and how long we should expect it to last, it going on for so many Americans, particularly of an older vintage, is the late months of 1979 and the development of the theocracy in Iran. Give us your perspective and where the theocracy is now, the nuances of how it is amended and changed since your tour of duty here.
I'm going to call it for a good six, seven years. I think the one thing that we always have to bear in mind is that there is a base of support for the regime and there are different estimates of how big this is. Is it 10 million people, 15 million people, maybe 20, who possibly, I think, do very much genuinely support the idea of an Islamic republic and the idea of Sharia law forming the basis of Iran's constitution and the the idea of having a supreme leader.
The problem is that they are by no means any more than the majority of the population.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran internet shutdown
- protests crackdown
- telecom outages
- starlink access
- geopolitical risk
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Starlink
Watch the episode
Watch “Iran’s Record Internet Block Stokes Fears Crackdown May Continue” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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