Episode summary
Dan Senor on Israel election: The differences in this election came down to domestic issues
Summary
Israel’s election appears headed for another deadlock: the pro-Netanyahu bloc is ahead, but neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition can reach the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Dan Senor says the remaining ballots could still shift a few seats, yet the broader picture is that Netanyahu has not won and the opposition has not displaced him. That leaves Isaac Herzog in the awkward position of deciding whom to task with forming a government, while Netanyahu could try to sit in a caretaker role and force another election, likely in April of next year.
Senor argues the race was driven mostly by domestic politics, not by disagreements over Gaza, Iran, or cooperation with the Trump administration. He says Israelis were divided over Netanyahu’s longevity, corruption charges, the role of ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service, and responsibility for October 7th. He also says the country’s Arab parties could be pivotal, but neither side wants to govern with them, making coalition math especially difficult.
On U.S.-Israel relations, Senor says the election likely does not change the strategic direction and may make a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran more likely after the U.S. midterms, because Netanyahu is not going anywhere. He favors a limited approach, or “mowing the lawn,” over regime change, arguing Iran is already fragile and that a bigger operation would consume too many resources and create too much uncertainty.
Key takeaways
- Dan Senor says the election is a stalemate: Netanyahu is ahead, but neither bloc is close to 61 seats in the Knesset.
- Senor argues the campaign was driven by domestic issues such as Netanyahu’s tenure, corruption charges, ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, and October 7th responsibility.
- He says Israelis largely agree on Gaza and Iran strategy, so the political split is not mainly about the conduct of the war.
- Senor thinks the result could make a U.S.-Israeli move against Iran more likely after the U.S. midterms because Netanyahu is likely to remain in power.
- He favors a limited Iran strategy, saying the preferred approach is to keep Iran isolated and fragile rather than pursue regime change.
Notable quotes
“THE DIFFERENCES IN THIS ELECTION CAME DOWN TO DOMESTIC ISSUES”
“NETANYAHU STILL HASN'T WON. SO NETANYAHU CAN'T FORM A GOVERNMENT”
“THE DIFFERENCES IN THIS ELECTION CAME DOWN TO DOMESTIC ISSUES”
“THERE'S NO DIFFERENCE HERE. THE DIFFERENCE THAT THIS THE DIFFERENCES IN THIS ELECTION CAME DOWN TO DOMESTIC ISSUES”
How the episode opens
Gear that helps your purpose
Welcome back to squawk box. No clear winner yet in israel's election right now, the pro-netanyahu bloc ahead. But neither he nor a top challenger, gadi eisenkot, has enough votes to win a majority in the knesset, israel's parliament.
Dan Senor is here. Call me back podcast host former white house foreign policy advisor and expert on all things israel. You walked in here.
I said, what's going on? You said it's a mess. What, what what do you actually think is happening here?
Well.
Israelis went to the bed last night with the exit polls out. The exit polls historically are usually pretty accurate in predicting the final outcome. If you look at israeli history, there's really I think by my lights, there's only one outlier, 1996, where israelis went to bed thinking shimon peres had just been elected prime minister, and they woke up to benjamin netanyahu being elected prime minister for the first time, 1996.
And that was considered the shock. Otherwise, the exit polls have been very accurate. So israelis went to bed last night saying, gadi eisenkot, will bibi's gone.
Gadi eisenkot, the leader of the opposition, effectively the leader of the opposition, will probably be able to form some kind of government, maybe a minority government. They woke up today seeing that the likud numbers, the netanyahu numbers had surged. Netanyahu still hasn't won.
So netanyahu can't form a government. Keep in mind, in the in the parliament, you need 61 seats out of 120 seats to form a government. So right now, and they're still counting.
So about 25% of the vote to be counted. There's what's called like the people serving the military and others who don't go to ballot boxes, about another 600,000 ballots that need to be counted.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- israel election
- u.s.-israel relations
- domestic issues
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from CNBC Squawk Box
-
Rep. John Moolenaar on investigating Nvidia's Jensen Huang: CCP influence raises multiple concerns -
Jensen Huang's affair has gone from a personal scandal to a corporate governance issue: Paul Argenti -
Experts react to the October CPI report -
Fairlead's Katie Stockton on market selloff: Don't sell weakness, sell the strength -
Ron Baron on his Musk investments: Can make 'hundreds of billions of dollars' over the next 10 years -
Tech selloff looks like a normal correction, says JPMorgan's Jack Caffrey
CNBC Squawk Box, this episode and its artwork belong to their owners. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
