Is The AI Selloff A Buying Opportunity? | Warren Pies

Warren Pies said he has taken equity risk down because market internals have weakened even though he still thinks the AI build-out has more room to run. He framed his process as building conviction on fundamentals and managing risk with technicals, pointing to a market consolidation, financials rolling over versus staples, and hyperscaler credit spreads widening again as signs that the uptrend may be pausing or breaking down. He said he is not seeing the kind of sentiment washout that would justify buying aggressively yet.

On AI, Warren argued the trade remains intact on the fundamental side. He pointed to tight GPU availability, rising rental rates, contango in longer-dated compute pricing, stronger hyperscaler cloud revenue, and Anthropic’s economics as evidence that demand is still outrunning supply. But he also said the funding side is becoming more important now that the build-out is increasingly dependent on external capital rather than free cash flow.

He sees the bigger macro risk as the Fed. Warren said the correlation between the 10-year and Nasdaq matters more now than the oil link did previously, because rates are increasingly reacting to the AI capex boom. He thinks higher rates could slow financing, pressure venture-backed demand, and hurt semis first, while the rest of the economy looks weak but not yet recessionary.

On oil, Warren said the Iran conflict and blockade have created a very distorted market, with diesel cracks, distillates, and shipping all stretched. He thinks the next major oil move depends on geopolitics and that the current setup could accelerate a more multipolar energy landscape and a durable shift in U.S. posture in the Middle East.