Episode summary
Long Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly Roundup
Forward Guidance
· · Hosts: Felix, Quinn · Guests: Tony Greer
Summary
Tony Greer argued that the market’s violent post-midterm reversal is less about a clean political “clearing event” and more about a growing mix of uncertainty, crowded positioning, and an AI-led unwind. He compared the setup to 2018, when stocks rolled over after the midterms and the Fed eventually pivoted, and said the current tape looks like a similar late-year risk-off phase rather than a stable breakout. He also said the semiconductor trade has started to come undone and that the market may still have room lower if the AI bubble keeps deflating.
Greer was more constructive on gold, bonds, and selective real-economy trades. He said bonds likely made an important low in October, that gold remains resilient above $4K, and that natural resources and commodities should outlive the tech repricing. He also highlighted homebuilders as a “sneaky” area because they have held up despite high mortgage rates and expensive energy. On the macro side, he questioned why the Fed is still pricing hikes if growth is slowing and risk assets are weakening.
Key takeaways
- Tony Greer thinks the post-midterm move looks more like the start of uncertainty than a durable risk-on reset.
- Tony Greer says semiconductors and broader AI-linked tech still have room to fall, with the semi short still attractive into year-end.
- Tony Greer believes October likely marked the bond-market low and wants to buy dips in bonds.
- Tony Greer favors gold as a frontrunning hedge if growth weakens and the Fed stays hawkish.
- Tony Greer sees homebuilders as a relative-strength trade because they have held up despite 7% mortgage rates and higher energy costs.
Notable quotes
“I feel like we are just finding a tradable direction this year, you know, like there have been so there's been such a crossfire”
“I want to stay bullish in in basic materials and natural resources. I want to stay bullish in bonds. I want to stay bearish in tech”
“I'm looking at them and I'm like, they're unchanged on the year. Unched”
How the episode opens
Nothing said on Ford guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. All right, what's going on everybody? Welcome back to another roundup edition of Forward Guidance special edition cuz we got the man Tony Greer back in the house.
Tony, always so fun to have you. I was saying right before we recorded that it seems like anytime we book in to come in, markets start falling apart. you were I think the last time we really did this was in was in last March.
Um and marketers are were were falling apart and here you are again and the cues are down over five six%. Great to have you dude.
Yeah it's great to be here man. Luckily, we were a little bit ahead of this one in the semiconductor space. But, you know, I to to even think that I had any clue what was going to happen in the last two days, you know, the up and back and the violent reversals, man, nobody sees this coming. You know, there's not really headline specific driven. We're just digesting the sort of
Pressure release of having the midterms behind us, you know, and getting the results we knew were coming. So, there's obviously a lot to it, man. You guys start wherever you want. — Yeah. Well, uh, why don't we actually talk about your TG conference first? Um, because you're running that again, you know, give you give you the limelight a bit because I don't know, I'll be honest, that was like one of my favorite conferences I've ever been to last year and you're doing it again. We're going to be going again in February. But yeah, tell us a bit about it before we get into the thick of it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai trade
- semiconductor selloff
- gold and bitcoin
- bond bottom
- fed rate outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Fidelity
- Blockworks
Watch the episode
Watch “Long Gold And Short Semis Into Year-End? | Weekly Roundup” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance, this episode and its artwork belong to Blockworks. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
