Episode summary
$500M Bet On The Iran Strike — Before It Happened | Prof G Markets
Prof G Markets
· · Hosts: Ed Elson, Scott Galloway · Guests: Jonathan Cohen, Dan Primack
Summary
Prediction markets came under fire after reports that traders made huge wagers around the U.S. strikes on Iran, including $529 million traded on Polymarket alone on the timing of the strikes. The host and Jonathan Cohen argued that this is the logical endpoint of “gamblification,” where event contracts blur the line between investing and betting and can create incentives for manipulation or even real-world harm. Cohen said platforms draw a legal and moral line at death partly to protect their regulatory status, but he warned that even small bets can move markets and drive news cycles.
The episode then turned to defense tech, where Dan Primack described Anduril’s still-unfinished $4 billion fundraise and a potential $60 billion valuation as evidence that Silicon Valley is now fully engaged in military technology. He said autonomy, AI, drones, and other software-driven systems are making defense look more like a technology stack than a traditional hardware business, and he pointed to record 2025 venture funding of $50 billion for defense startups.
The host’s closing view was blunt: war is becoming a major investment theme. He argued that investors will increasingly screen companies for military applications, and that defense may become the next “AI” in terms of hype, capital, and strategic importance.
Key takeaways
- Jonathan Cohen said prediction markets are the “gamblification of everything,” and war bets are the extreme version of that trend.
- Cohen argued that even a few thousand dollars can move a prediction market and potentially influence real-world political outcomes.
- Dan Primack said Anduril’s $4 billion round and possible $60 billion valuation show how far defense tech has moved into Silicon Valley.
- Primack said defense tech funding hit a record $50 billion in 2025, up from $27 billion in 2024.
- The host argued that investors will increasingly look for defense applications across AI, software, and hardware companies.
Notable quotes
“the gamblification of everything”
“all of a sudden I have the ability to manip manipulate that market”
“defense tech startups had their best funding year ever in 2025”
“I think it most likely does. Um I think it most likely does”
“defense is about to be the new AI”
How the episode opens
Today's number 50. That is the percentage of Gen Zers who say that beverages are part of their personality. In other words, we now know the real reason young people aren't having sex.
Welcome to Profy Markets. I'm Edson. It is March 5th.
Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices climbed as investor attention shifted state side. A report showed robust services sector growth for February.
ADP private jobs data came in better than expected and a tech rally gave the NASDAQ an extra boost. Meanwhile, the 10-year remained elevated and oil prices were flat on the day. Okay, what else is happening?
Prediction markets are under intense scrutiny after half a billion dollars in trades tied to the US strikes on Iran came to light. Bloomberg reported $529 million was traded on Poly Market alone on the timing of the strikes. One account made more than half a million with the first trade placed just an hour before the news broke publicly.
Meanwhile, Poly Market's competitor Kelshi saw nearly $55 million in trade volume on whether Ayatollah Hami would be ousted. However, it halted those markets shortly after he was killed, saying that it doesn't allow markets tied directly to death. Now, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy says he will introduce legislation, quote, ASAP, to stop people with ties to Trump from profiting off of these wars.
Here to help us break down what comes next in prediction markets, we are speaking with Jonathan Cohen, policy lead at the Institute for Boys and Men and author of Losing Big, America's Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling. Jonathan, good to see you. I know you usually talk about uh sports betting and you've written a book about it, which has been massively informative to many of us.
Now we're on to the next phase here where people are betting and gambling on war and potentially death and it's creating all of these issues and all of these rifts.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- prediction markets
- iran war
- defense tech startups
- anduril funding
- defense investing trend
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Anduril
Watch the episode
Watch “$500M Bet On The Iran Strike — Before It Happened | Prof G Markets” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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