Episode summary
Crypto Is Selling Off. Is the Bull Trend Broken? Trading the Markets w/ Kris Bullock and Nico Brugge
Summary
The guest argues that the crypto selloff looks more alarming on the daily chart than on the weekly chart, and that Bitcoin still looks constructive as long as it holds above the roughly $83,000 line in the sand and stays above the 10-week moving average. He says the weekly structure still shows higher highs and higher lows, the mega trend remains green, and short-term weakness is not enough to declare the bull trend broken. He also says the daily noise has become misleading enough that investors are better off focusing on the weekly time frame and waiting for clearer confirmation before reacting.
Ethereum is the main exception. The guest says ETH is losing momentum versus Bitcoin, is sitting below or near its 10-week moving average, and has a weakening ETHBTC structure after failing to sustain its recent rebound. He adds that BitMine has already hit its 5% Ethereum allocation target, removing a major source of demand, which makes him unwilling to stay in ETH while the price action deteriorates.
He then highlights the names showing the strongest relative strength: NEAR, Aerodrome, Pyth, Raydium, Pump, SUI, Walrus, BAT, Hyperliquid, Zcash, and Robinhood. His view is that many of these look extended but still healthy, while a few are overbought and due for consolidation. He also argues that a rising U.S. dollar does not automatically kill Bitcoin, and that strong tokens should be judged by whether the move has real fundamental support rather than by the rally alone.
Key takeaways
- The guest says Bitcoin is still fine as long as it holds the roughly $83,000 area and remains above the 10-week moving average.
- The guest says Ethereum looks weaker than Bitcoin and is out of favor now that BitMine has finished its 5% ETH accumulation target.
- The guest says NEAR, Aerodrome, Pyth, and Raydium have strong momentum, but several are overextended and likely need a cooling-off period.
- The guest says a stronger U.S. dollar does not automatically break Bitcoin’s bull trend, since both have often risen together.
- The guest says tokens with sharp relative strength should be checked for a real fundamental catalyst before chasing the move.
Notable quotes
“when you zoom out and look at the weekly time frame, you actually realize that, oh, things aren't nearly as bad as as they might seem”
“I know I've highlighted this where this yellow horizontal line is, this kind of 83,000 give or take has been my line in the sand”
“none of this looks bad to me. I don't look at this and go, "Ah, this is a terrible looking chart”
“I think it's important to understand that the nominal buyer of ETH for the last time uh big chunk of time is disappearing”
“don't go chasing it uh, at the when when we're looking at sort of demark 9 weekly nines across the board”
How the episode opens
Welcome back to trading the markets. No, your eyes do not deceive you. I am not Bjon Mleki.
I am Nico Buga filling in for Bejon who is in the background working away on some amazing stuff including our uh Festival of Trading which kicks off tomorrow. Chris, you're making an appearance. All the guys are all of our analysts.
We got Miss Schneider, Dale Pinker, Peter Brandt. Free for all Real Vision members. So, if you're not a Real Vision member yet, go to realvision.com/year- future because we also have the trading league opening next week.
Chris, I picked quite the day to uh fill in for Bejon, haven't I? I seem to have just tanked the whole market just by uh filling in.
You jinxed us. Yeah, totally. No, honestly, I mean, really the theme for this show is going to be everything is fine.
Uh, you know, I think anyway, quote unquote. But, um, I'm going to spend a lot of the time basically just focusing on the weekly time frame because when you zoom out and look at the weekly time frame, you actually realize that, oh, things aren't nearly as bad as as they might seem. And, uh, I've been making a point to do that really just in a more broader sense.
kind of I've changed I've sort of shifted my whole philosophy about how I invest and how I engage in in the crypto space in particular uh because the daily has become too noisy and you can really just get wrapped up in it you know and and riding that roller coaster every day can be really stressful and I found that the more I take a step back and really just kind of focus on the weekly trends um the the the the easier it is the less stressful it is and the better perspective you have and it actually works with crypto it works really Well, so I'm going to, you know, illustrate that with a lot of weekly charts today and uh show you guys that um you don't have to get caught up in the minutia if you don't want to.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- bitcoin selloff
- eth vs bitcoin
- crypto relative strength
- altcoin overbought vs healthy setups
- macro dollar impact
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HOOD
- Bitcoin
- Ethereum
- NEAR Protocol
- Aerodrome
- Pyth
- Raydium
- PUMP
- Hyperliquid
- Zcash
- Solana
- Sui
- Robinhood
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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