Episode summary
Is the Bull Trend Broken? Trading the Markets w/ Kris Bullock and Nico Brugge
Summary
The guest argues that crypto is still operating inside a young bullish regime even after a rough stretch driven by tighter financial conditions. He says the pressure came from higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and widening concern in credit markets, but that those forces have started to ease over the last three weeks. Even so, he says Bitcoin is still chopping and needs to reclaim the recent breakout area around 82, while a deeper support zone sits near 76,000 if the market rolls over again.
That macro backdrop also shapes the altcoin read-through. The guest says equities, especially AI-related stocks, were the first place stress showed up, and that crypto followed as risk appetite weakened. He remains constructive on assets showing relative strength such as Hyperliquid, Uni, Zcash, Near, Venice, and parts of the privacy trade, while warning that Ethereum continues to lag Bitcoin structurally.
He is especially skeptical on ETH/BTC, saying Ethereum’s value accrual has changed and that the old fee-capture story is much weaker now that activity has shifted to layer 2s. By contrast, he thinks projects with clear revenue or buyback mechanics, like Hyperliquid and Pump, have stronger fundamental support than their market narratives suggest.
Key takeaways
- The guest still expects Bitcoin to be higher in a year, but says 82 is the level to reclaim and 76,000 is the main support zone if weakness continues.
- He says the recent crypto selloff was tied to tighter financial conditions, especially a stronger dollar, higher yields, and anxiety in credit markets.
- The guest views Bitcoin’s 2025 setup as choppy but still bullish, even after a red month and a break from the old four-year-cycle pattern.
- He thinks Ethereum remains structurally weak versus Bitcoin because value accrual has shifted to layer 2s and the fee story has changed.
- He favors stronger relative performers like Hyperliquid, Uni, Zcash, Near, and Venice, while treating more damaged names like LIT with caution.
- He says Pump’s revenue and buyback mechanics matter more than its social-media reputation, making it a more serious business than many traders assume.
Notable quotes
“I still am of the belief that the that the bottom is in and that we're in a new bull market regime”
“we might get we might get a little bit lower. Like I said, I'm going to be looking at this 70 whatever 763, call it 75, whatever, in that general ballpark”
“Bitcoin's never done this in its history. It's never had two red years in a row”
“I would not be in lit based on this”
“there's no reason to buy Ethereum. There's no reason to hold Ethereum”
How the episode opens
Welcome back to Trading the Markets. I am Nico Bruga, not Bjan Mleki, filling in today. Um, Chris, how are you doing today, man? Second time I've seen you. — I know, right? Love it. I I love that I get a double dose of Chris in my life today. Um we were also joking before the show that whenever I seem to host the markets are trading sideways. So if you see me on the scheduled um you know just know that that might be the case. Any who, Chris, where do we want to start out today?
So yeah, I want to kind of set the stage by talking about financial conditions because it applies to everything and it's it's really what's driving what's going on. So, it makes sense to kind of give a brief overview of what we're dealing with uh and how it pertains to crypto, macro, stocks, all of it. So, um let's start with this.
This financial conditions indicator I made a while back. Obviously, I think I've talked about it recently. It flipped red and and quite mightily so uh several weeks ago, about six weeks ago.
Now these are weekly weekly candles after a period uh through August you know into September where we had a really nice neutral area and that's when we got the biggest gains like if I actually move this over here's the same thing but with with Bitcoin. So we got the big rally in Bitcoin right in the middle of this neutral area and then we even got the kind of the September rally towards the tail end of this before things started getting tighter. And as this as this, you know, tightened up, um, everything just kind of slowed down.
Suddenly, we had three weeks in a row of of downward price action.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- crypto market outlook
- bitcoin bull market regime
- credit spreads and dollar
- eth vs btc relative strength
- altcoin relative strength
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GLXY
- Bitcoin
- Ethereum
- Hyperliquid
- NEAR Protocol
- Uniswap
- Zcash
- PUMP
- Monero
- Lighter
- Solana
- Sui
- PONZ
- Kraken
- Circle
- Galaxy Digital
- Wormhole
- Venice AI
- Basic Attention Token
- Bittensor
Watch the episode
Watch “Is the Bull Trend Broken? Trading the Markets w/ Kris Bullock and Nico Brugge” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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