Episode summary
Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays
Summary
The discussion centered on why the current AI buildout looks fundamentally different from the late-1990s dot-com bubble. Andreas Steno argued that the comparison is weak because today’s AI firms are seeing demand outstrip supply, compute prices are rising rather than collapsing, and companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are generating substantial revenue rather than burning cash with little to show for it. He said Anthropic’s filing shows it needs more compute, has forward deals with Alphabet and Amazon, and may be close to cash flow neutral or even cash flow positive this year.
The bigger market issue, in Andreas Steno’s view, is that higher bond yields are forcing investors to demand near-term return on AI capex. He said the bond market’s skepticism matters because AI expansion still needs capital, and this week’s earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon will be a key test of whether the big platforms can defend their spending plans with concrete ROI.
Beyond AI, the conversation turned to Brazil, where Lula’s win was framed as a shock that hit the real and local equities sharply. Andreas Steno also said the EU’s move to tighten trade defenses against China is overdue and reflects a broader shift toward more active industrial policy in Europe.
Key takeaways
- Andreas Steno said Anthropic’s filing confirms it needs more compute and has forward deals with Alphabet and Amazon to secure it.
- He argued the AI boom is not like dot-com because supply is tight, prices are rising, and AI companies are already generating real revenue.
- Andreas Steno said rising bond yields have made the market demand immediate ROI from AI capex, raising the importance of this week’s mega-cap earnings.
- He pointed to GPU rental prices, saying H100 rentals are up 30% this year and B200 rentals have more than doubled, which he sees as evidence of a compute shortage.
- On Brazil, Andreas Steno said the Lula victory has already hit the real and equities hard, while the EU’s China trade response is a long-overdue shift.
Notable quotes
“I don't think I don't think we got a lot of news today that wasn't already covered in the Wall Street Journal article last week”
“I think it's a very very weak analogy to be honest. Um, but the credit market is currently stuck in a very com like um vibe”
“the bond market is always right in the sense that it's not because the bond market is smart but you cannot really argue with the bond market can you”
“look at, for example, uh the H100. It's it's an old series of GPUs from Nvidia, mostly installed back in 22 and 23. They're up 30% in rental prices this year”
“if the Fed provides just, you know, a tiny bit of hope that maybe this hiking cycle will not go on for long, then then the market is is is right for a correction upwards”
How the episode opens
Hello out there. Welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to Macro Mondays.
My name is Milma. I'm joined by Andreas Deno. And today we have a great show for you.
We're going to be covering the uh AI slaughter, the uh election shocker in Brazil, and maybe a little bit about the EU trade war with China. And oh, wow, how about that anthropic IPO, Andreas? uh we got the initial uh was it called the S1 fi S1 filing today so not a full prospectus what uh what's your take on that
So I don't think I don't think we got a lot of news today that wasn't already covered in the Wall Street Journal article last week but you know from a top- down perspective I have a couple of conclusions looking at that perspectives first of all anthropic is very explicit when it comes to its compute capacity going forward they need more and they are very well aware that they don't have enough. Uh that's, you know, a story I've been banging the drum on for at least a quarter, uh since we've seen Anthropic losing momentum since June. Mostly a capacity issue if you ask me.
That's part number one. The second part is that we got some details on where they're going to buy this compute. Uh and they have forward deals in place with both Alphabet and and Amazon.
So I think it would be be very interesting to see how the Max 7 executives both Alphabet and and Amazon report this week how they address this whole compute capacity question because you know currently there is clearly a lack of compute but the market is not willing to finance that compute capacity. So how do we solve that equation? That's going to be the quick question for this week.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai investment cycle vs dot-com bubble
- anthropic ipo and compute constraints
- higher rates forcing ai roi
- big tech earnings and credit markets
- brazil election shock and eu-china trade tensions
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GOOGL
- GOOG
- AMZN
- MSFT
- Anthropic
- Alphabet
- Amazon
- Microsoft
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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