Episode summary
The Economy Is Sending a Surprising Signal? with Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays
Summary
Mikkel Rosenvold argued that the Democratic sweep in the U.S. midterms does not meaningfully alter the macro setup, but it does make the next two years more adversarial for Donald Trump. He said the Republican loss was severe, especially among young white men and low-turnout Trump voters, yet still consistent with the cyclical pattern of an unpopular president. In his view, the bigger effects will be on Congress, where debt-ceiling fights, shutdown risk, and impeachment battles could dominate the rest of the term.
He was notably less worried that the result meaningfully derails the AI buildout. Rosenvold said Democrats may slow some local data-center projects and push AI legislation, but he thinks the larger hyperscalers could actually benefit from clearer rules. He tied that to Thursday’s violent AI selloff, which he described as one of the largest recent degrossing events, with roughly $70 billion wiped out in 90 minutes, and said it may already be close to a bottom.
On macro, Rosenvold pointed to Steno Research nowcasting that shows inflation rolling over quickly while growth is reaccelerating. He said that combination raises the odds of an earlier end to the hiking cycle and could support risk assets if the next inflation print is only a mild soft surprise. He also discussed Abu Dhabi and Shenzhen as key geopolitical venues, but remained skeptical that Ukraine peace talks will produce a breakthrough soon, though even partial progress could ease diesel shortages and help set up a year-end rally.
Key takeaways
- Rosenvold said the midterm result hurts Trump politically, but the bigger market issue is a new cycle of debt-ceiling and shutdown fights in Congress.
- He argued the Republican loss came from weak turnout among young white men and other Trump-leaning voters, not from a permanent collapse of the coalition.
- Rosenvold said the AI selloff looked like a major degrossing event, with about $70 billion wiped out in 90 minutes, and may be near a bottom.
- His nowcasting models show inflation rolling over sharply while growth is improving, which he thinks could end the hiking cycle sooner than expected.
- He said any Ukraine peace progress could ease diesel pressures, but he is still skeptical Russia is ready to compromise.
- Rosenvold expects the AI regulatory debate to slow some buildout projects, but not necessarily damage the long-term AI leaders.
Notable quotes
“The biggest degrossing event of the at least the last 10 years”
“I have every every confidence in the ability of Democrats to this up for for for the next cycle”
“We had over 707$70 billion wiped out in the space of 90 minutes”
“inflation rolling over massively over the past two weeks”
How the episode opens
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Welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to Macro Mondays. The biggest degrossing event of the at least the last 10 years.
Upcoming peace talks in Abu Dhabi. And then something about a Chinese affair. Lots to talk about this week.
Sadly, I'm not joined by Andreas this week since he is midair on his on his way home from Valencia. So, I will be doing this solo this week. This means even more geopolitics, even more fun potentially.
Uh, let's see about that. My name is Big Osman. I'm very pleased to join you.
I'm your usual host here at Macro Mondays and uh we have a great show for you this week. Um, before we dive into, uh, to things, uh, just a reminder that the Realvision Trading League is still open, uh, we have Regal Winners and we are entering the final stretch for up to $100,000 in prices. You should head over to realvision.com/yyou-f to to find out even more.
Uh, also just a note if you're interested in even more from Real Vision, I'll be hosting a a roundt discussion with Raul Andreas if his plane lands in time and Jamie Coots if we can get him up from Australia.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- u.s. midterm elections
- economic policy
- financial markets
- fed hiking cycle
- ai data center capex
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Steno Research
Watch the episode
Watch “The Economy Is Sending a Surprising Signal? with Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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