Episode summary
Exor NV (EXO): The Massive Discount Continues To Widen
The Intrinsic Value Podcast
· · 1 hr 25 min · Hosts: Kyle Grieve, Shawn O'Malley
Summary
Exor’s thesis has gone the wrong way in the short term: the shares fell from about $86 to $79, while the implied discount to net asset value widened after Exor sold about €3 billion of Ferrari. The hosts argue that this does not yet break the case, but it does show how hard it is for a holding company to close a discount when its biggest asset is also under pressure.
Most of the episode focuses on Ferrari, which remains the crown jewel underneath Exor. The hosts think the market has leaned too heavily on narrative after the Luce EV reveal, even though Ferrari has continued to post record results, keep EBITDA margins near 40%, and guide toward its best year ever. They argue Ferrari is becoming a mature business, with management’s five-year plan implying about 5% annual revenue growth and a lower EV mix target of 20% by 2030, down from 40%.
They also point to Ferrari’s scarcity model, pricing power, repeat customers, and brand marketing through Formula 1 as reasons the business still deserves a premium. At the same time, they note risks from slower volume growth, higher working capital, and broader luxury weakness in China, while saying Exor still offers other assets and optionality beyond Ferrari.
Key takeaways
- Exor’s stock fell to about $79 even after the original purchase around $86, and its discount to NAV appears to have widened rather than narrowed.
- The hosts say Exor’s sale of €3 billion of Ferrari was likely well timed, since Ferrari had been near its highs before weakening in 2026.
- Ferrari’s first-quarter 2026 run rate implied roughly 13,744 annual units, but the hosts think full-year volume could still flatten or slightly contract.
- Management’s updated five-year plan points to about 5% annual revenue growth and a 20% EV mix by 2030, which the hosts read as more mature guidance.
- Ferrari’s margins remain strong, with EBITDA margins rising from about 39% to 40%, and the hosts see operating margin expansion toward 30% as plausible.
- The hosts think Exor still offers value even if Ferrari only performs decently, because investors also get other assets and potential mean reversion in the discount.
Notable quotes
“the discount to net asset value has widened and the stock has since been down after we bought it”
“Ferrari, has posted yet another record quarter. And not only did it post another record quarter, but they're guiding for its best year in history”
“Ferrari is just a more mature company than it was. And the stock today reflects Ferrari's quality positioning much more so than it did at at IPO”
“the the numbers around it are so mind-boggling to me when I first saw it that it does actually give you pause”
How the episode opens
At the beginning of 2026, we told you that you could buy a Ferrari at a 50% discount by owning it through Exer, an Italian holding company. And since then, Exer has actually sold off €3 billion worth of its Ferrari stake. And the discount to net asset value has widened and the stock has since been down after we bought it.
So naturally, the question we keep asking ourselves is, did we mess this one up? And like many investment related problems, the answer lies in the gray area. Because while the holding company has been somewhat of a dud on paper, the crown jewel asset underneath, Ferrari, has posted yet another record quarter.
And not only did it post another record quarter, but they're guiding for its best year in history. If you've been listening to the show for a while, you know that there are two companies that we really like. And you can think of it as sort of a double header.
We covered Ferrari as a standalone stock. And the conclusion on Ferrari was pretty simple. We love the business, but we didn't necessarily love the valuation, at least not at that time.
It was a little too rich for our value investing blood. But luckily for us, we have a wide audience of very intelligent listeners who like to point things out to us. And one of them guided us towards a name we had never heard of before, and that was Exer.
And Exer just so happened to be Ferrari's largest shareholder. And as a holding company, it traded at a massive discount to the net asset value of its holdings, as I mentioned a moment ago. So, we were able to get Exor at about a 60% discount to its net asset value, which meant that in a sense, we got Ferrari's shares at the same discount proportionately.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- exor discount
- ferrari stock decline
- ferrari new model launch
- ferrari capital allocation
- lingotto asset management
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RACE
- Exor NV
- Ferrari
- Lingotto
Watch the episode
Watch “Exor NV (EXO): The Massive Discount Continues To Widen” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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