Episode summary
Google, Reddit, Amazon, TSMC – Are our Biggest Winners Still a Buy Now?
The Intrinsic Value Podcast
· · 1 hr 27 min · Hosts: Daniel Mahncke, Shawn O'Malley
Summary
The hosts revisit their biggest winners and ask whether the stocks that worked best are still worth holding at current prices. The core argument is that strong businesses can keep compounding even after the market rerates them, but valuation still matters more once growth is reflected in the price. Alphabet is the main example: the host says the business remains exceptional, yet the stock is no longer cheap after a huge rerating, heavier capex, and a shift from asset-light search to a more capital-intensive AI and data-center model.
Amazon is framed as the more attractive near-term buy versus Google, largely because it has more upside from AI without as much valuation pressure. The hosts also contrast the two companies’ massive capex programs and note that Amazon’s strength in AWS, custom chips, and logistics automation could create long-term operating leverage.
Reddit is treated as a more mixed winner: the stock has run hard, but user growth and logged-in engagement have become key concerns, and the hosts are uneasy about management dropping some metrics. They also revisit Remitly, where margins improved much faster than expected, reinforcing a recurring lesson: financial models often underestimate how quickly quality businesses can surprise to the upside.
Key takeaways
- The host still likes Alphabet as a long-term compounder, but says he would not buy more at today’s valuation despite holding it as the largest portfolio position.
- The host thinks Amazon is a better capital-allocation choice than Google right now, even after its rally, because the business still looks more attractive on adjusted valuation and AI upside.
- The hosts see Reddit as a high-quality but more volatile business, and they worry that weaker logged-in user growth and less disclosure could matter more at a 40x earnings multiple.
- Remitly showed how quickly margins can inflect: the host says the company reached a 22% margin in two quarters after previously guiding down to 12%.
- Across the episode, the hosts argue that great businesses often surprise to the upside, but winners should not be treated the same way once the market price has changed dramatically.
Notable quotes
“I would say it's always almost a significant position. So we do not just buy, you know, one share so that we can say that we invested”
“the market sold off the stock on these earnings is that Google for the first time since IPO reported a quarter of negative cash flows”
“I would say that Google's cloud growth is just absolutely off the charts”
“I would go for Amazon”
How the episode opens
A couple of days ago, we did an episode discussing our biggest losers. And today, we will have a lot more fun because we will discuss our biggest winners. — It does sound a lot more fun to do that. And we'll reflect on why they worked out well and whether those companies are maybe still a buy at today's prices.
We will also look at some companies that we covered that performed extremely well, but we didn't end up buying. So, some of them, I got to say, really surprised me. And I would also be surprised if we don't see major pullbacks eventually.
In case you're listening to this episode and you have no idea what portfolio we're talking about here on the show, my co-host Kyle and I alternate on pitching you Sean our favorite new stock ideas each week with the obvious goal in mind of finding the great businesses for our intrinsic value portfolio. And while it's a paper portfolio on the surface, every position of the portfolio is covered by at least one of us hosts through our personal portfolio. And I would say it's always almost a significant position.
So we do not just buy, you know, one share so that we can say that we invested. We actually have sizable positions in our personal portfolios. So we also regularly share them at least in our mastermind group.
So that members probably can attest to the fact that we have skin in the game whenever it comes to the companies that we cover here.
Yeah. For me, Uber, Google, and Adobe are all very, very significant positions in my portfolio, and I believe you're pretty heavily invested in Mata Libre, Amazon, but but also Reddit and some other names, too. — Yeah, especially the last one was one that you pitched to me.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai trade
- mag7 capex
- stock valuation
- value investing winners
- reddit portfolio sales
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GOOGL
- GOOG
- AMZN
- TSM
- DELL
- RELY
- Amazon
- TSMC
- Dell
- Comfort Systems
- Remitly
Watch the episode
Watch “Google, Reddit, Amazon, TSMC – Are our Biggest Winners Still a Buy Now?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Airbnb (ABNB) The Business Outgrew Its Peak, the Stock Hasn't -
GE Aerospace: The Ultimate Compounder?
The Intrinsic Value Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to The Investor's Podcast Network. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
