Episode summary
The Investment Office E13: You Think You Own SpaceX, But ...
The Investment Office
· · 29 min · Hosts: Matt, Wendy
Summary
SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing is framed as a potential watershed for private markets, with rumors of a $1.75 trillion valuation and as much as $75 billion raised. The host argues that the company’s move reflects how far the IPO pathway has changed: elite private firms can stay private for years, raise enormous sums, and then debut at public-market scale. The host also suggests that the need for liquidity for early investors, and the capital demands of xAI, likely helped push SpaceX toward an offering.
The sharper warning is about what secondary buyers may actually own. The host says multi-layer SPVs can stack fees, obscure the ownership chain, and leave investors with little more than “counterparty risk” if the underlying claim on SpaceX shares is unclear. The guest agrees that even sophisticated people could be unpleasantly surprised when the IPO and lockup reveal whether those claims are real and how much value remains after fees.
The host’s own 2018 SpaceX investment serves as a contrast: it was sourced from someone directly connected to the company, treated as a venture-style bet, and made with an expectation of possible total loss. The episode ends by arguing that Elon Musk’s ability to raise capital is itself a competitive advantage, and that adding xAI may increase ambiguity in a way retail investors find attractive.
Key takeaways
- The host says SpaceX’s filing could become the largest IPO in history, with rumors of a $75 billion raise and a $1.75 trillion valuation.
- The host warns that many SPV buyers may discover they only have economic exposure, not clear ownership of SpaceX shares.
- The guest says multi-layer SPVs can pile on upfront, annual, and carry fees that could leave little return after lockup.
- The host says his 2018 SpaceX investment was a venture-style check made with the expectation it could go to zero.
- The host argues Elon Musk’s ability to raise capital is a competitive advantage, and that merging xAI into SpaceX may add the ambiguity retail investors like.
Notable quotes
“What you think you have is economic exposure. What you actually have is counterparty risk”
“at the end of that rainbow, there actually is a pot of SpaceX, right? Because it might not be”
“there are a lot of retail investors who have been able to get exposure to SpaceX over the last number of years”
“I invested like I hope I hope it's there when it shows up. Like, I don't know”
“The more ambiguity there is, the more you can tell yourself a story for hype”
How the episode opens
What you think you have is economic exposure. What you actually have is counterparty risk. Folks are potentially in for an unpleasant surprise.
This is all assuming that through these layers of opacity, through these SPVS, that at the bottom layer, at the end of that rainbow, there actually is a pot of SpaceX, right? Because it might not be. This is Matt Paler with Wendy Lee.
We're co-founders at IV Invest and welcome to this week's episode of the investment office. Every week here on the investment office, we cover the latest in capital markets, alternative investments, and retail investing. Uh this week, uh we would be remiss if we were not talking about what has probably been one of the biggest pieces of news in private markets in many months, which of course is, uh the confidential IPO filing by SpaceX.
Uh it has been rumored for months that SpaceX would be filing to go public. We don't know the exact details yet of the IPO given that it was a confidential filing. Uh but there have been a lot of numbers circling around uh some estimating that would uh go out with a valuation uh of as much as 1.75 trillion which would be wild.
It would make it immediately one of the most valuable public companies uh in the world and also rumors that they would be raising as much as $75 billion in this IPO which would make it uh I believe perhaps the largest IPO in history. Uh, so first before we get into some of the the more interesting private market nuances of this, Wendy, just curious your topline reaction on this news.
I think it's just reflective of how much the pathway to an IPO has changed for some of the fastest growing companies that have been able to raise so much capital in private markets that they've been able to stay private.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spacex ipo
- private share ownership
- secondary market
- deal fees
- xai merger
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TRI
- SpaceX
- xAI
- Thomson Reuters
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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