Episode summary
Can IBM Beat Microsoft and Google in the Quantum Computing Race? | WSJ's Bold Names
The Journal
· · Guests: Arvind Krishna
Summary
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna argues that quantum computing is still a few years from commercial use, but that the company is positioned to lead because it is already building the hardware, error-correction techniques, and ecosystem needed to make the machines usable. He says the most promising applications are problems normal computers cannot solve, including materials simulation, carbon sequestration, nitrogen fixation for fertilizers, and corrosion reduction in underwater pipes. Krishna says IBM is aiming for initial return from quantum in 2029 or 2030, with scaling to follow after that.
Krishna frames IBM’s quantum push as part of a broader reinvention under his leadership, alongside the company’s hybrid cloud and consulting businesses. He says AI will automate a substantial share of consulting work, but that should make IBM more productive and help it gain market share rather than shrink the business. He also says most clients are still experimenting with AI and now want ROI, governance, and common tool sets that can scale.
On competition, Krishna welcomes rivals such as Google and Microsoft because they help validate the market, but he says IBM’s edge is reliability, deep technical progress, and a long-term willingness to take on hard problems. He argues that IBM’s strategy is to be a winner in quantum, not necessarily the only winner, and that the company must keep growing for clients, employees, and shareholders if it is to remain relevant for another century.
Key takeaways
- Krishna says IBM expects quantum computing to begin commercial returns in 2029 or 2030, with broader adoption after that.
- He argues quantum’s best uses are in complex simulations like carbon sequestration, fertilizer chemistry, and corrosion prevention, not general-purpose computing.
- Krishna says AI will replace a meaningful share of consulting work, but IBM will win by becoming more productive and taking market share.
- He says IBM’s quantum advantage comes from reliability, error correction, and building an ecosystem around the technology.
- Krishna welcomes rivals like Google and Microsoft because they help define the market, but he says IBM aims to be a winner, not the only winner.
Notable quotes
“we are looking at 2029 2030. So that is 4 to 5 years out for that return that you're talking about”
“Those are the kinds of problems that I'm super excited about”
“I am actually excited I lose no sleep over what AI will do to our consulting teams”
“I think that that is where it has to go otherwise the technology doesn't really scale”
“The way you do it and the way you avoid uh sort of I'll call it with irrational reactions”
How the episode opens
America used to run on IBM. It was the backbone of business. — But after getting that jingle stuck in the heads of millions of Americans in the late 1980s, Big Blue lost its swagger. — IBM is getting a lot of attention today.
More now on that big miss for IBM on both earnings and revenue.
It's been a rough gum. There's no doubt about it. IBM spent much of the 2010s in the doldrums, but has made something of a comeback in the past 5 years.
That's thanks to a lot of the success in its hybrid cloud business. They've also leaned heavily into consulting services, all of which has led to a surge in the company's share price. That's under the leadership of CEO Arvin Krishna.
He took the reigns in 2020. And now IBM's looking to the future with quantum computing, something I saw firsthand earlier this summer. I'm standing outside the Thomas J.
Watson IBM research center in Yorktown Heights, New York. Believe it or not, this is probably the leading lab in the world for quantum computing research. But betting on the next big thing hasn't always worked out for IBM.
Just look at AI. In 2011, IBM's Watson AI famously beat Ken Jennings on Jeopardy.
Usually when I play Jeopardy, it's just for the fun of it. And this time, I feel like it's all part of some vast sociotechnological experiment. — What is Jericho? — Correct. — It was kind of downhill from there. It felt like IBM had lost the plot. Now we ask Arvin Krishna how IBM is going to recapture the future through quantum computing. Arvin, welcome. Uh, I'm excited to have you here in part because I was just at your Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- quantum computing race
- hybrid cloud comeback
- ai era strategy
- competition with microsoft
- competition with google
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IBM
- MSFT
- GOOGL
- GOOG
- IBM
- Microsoft
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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