Episode summary
Will the Next Jobs Report Reveal the Real Cost of AI on Employment? | WSJ’s Take On the Week
The Journal
· · 30 min · Hosts: Telis Demos, Miriam Gottfried · Guests: Justin Lahart, Erik Brynjolfsson
Summary
Gold’s record surge is framed as a sign of deeper unease about the global economy, with the host and a guest arguing that geopolitical shocks, shifting views on the dollar, and the broader “Sell America” trade are pushing investors toward the metal. They also note that momentum itself may be amplifying the move, as traders pile in after gold keeps rising.
The conversation then turns to Amazon’s upcoming earnings and the next US jobs report. The host sees Amazon as a test of whether heavy AI spending can improve profits the way it did for Meta, even as layoffs raise questions about labor demand. The guest says the jobs data may be hard to interpret because immigration policy is changing labor-force growth, and he expects the benchmark revision to significantly lower prior employment estimates.
A later segment with an analyst from Stanford argues that AI is already weighing on entry-level employment, especially in software and customer support, but that the aggregate effect is still small. He says the bigger story is a looming productivity boom, while warning that companies should use AI to augment workers rather than simply replace them.
Key takeaways
- Gold’s rally reflects both macro anxiety and momentum trading, according to the guest, who ties it to geopolitical stress and uncertainty about the dollar.
- Amazon’s earnings will help show whether AI capital spending is translating into bottom-line gains or whether layoffs point to softer demand.
- The guest expects the upcoming jobs report to be distorted by immigration-driven labor-force changes and a likely downward benchmark revision.
- An analyst from Stanford says entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations has fallen, with the biggest hit seen in younger workers.
- The analyst argues that AI is strongest in cognitive work like junior software and customer-service roles, while blue-collar jobs are less exposed for now.
- The analyst expects a productivity J-curve payoff ahead and says firms should use AI to augment workers, not just cut labor costs.
Notable quotes
“gold has now surged above, it's funny, when we prepared the episode, we was surging above 5,000 and then as we updated it, it was surging above 5,500”
“the signal is really that there is going to be a large downward revision um to that to that data”
“the most exposed occupations, those who are in the age group of entry level like age 22 to 26 had about a 13% decline in employment”
“Let's not trap ourselves to using AI to replace people and disempower people and drive down wages, but instead use it to augment people”
How the episode opens
Let's not trap ourselves to using AI to replace people and disempower people and drive down wages, but instead use it to augment people. — Hi, Telus. — Hi, Miriam. — Today, we have our colleague Justin Leheart joining us. He's an economics reporter. Good to see you, Justin. Good to see you.
And we brought him here because we're gonna have a big conversation about AI and jobs. But first, we want to talk about the big thing that's roing markets this week, and that is gold. Gold continues to serve. — I can't see I can't see. It's all that glittering gold as as mom and pop backs up the truck and fills it with gold ETFs, Costco gold. Everyone's buying gold under the bed. Under the mattress,
Under the mattress. Um, it's Yeah. Well, all joking aside, it has been obviously an absurd run for gold these last few weeks. Really, I mean, over the past year or so, uh, gold has now surged above, it's funny, when we prepared the episode, we was surging above 5,000 and then as we updated it, it was surging above 5,500.
What do you think is driving this big gold rally?
As our colleague Greg put it in his column uh this past week, he said it is a there are tremors shaking up assumptions about the global economy. And that has to do, I think, not just with, you know, Greenland and other geopolitical events, but the role of the dollar, right? I mean, factions within the Trump administration, the president and the Treasury Secretary said kind of different things about whether the dollar should be strong or weak over this past week.
And I think all of that is just making people say, "Gh, I want to get off a little bit.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- gold rally
- sell america trade
- amazon ai earnings
- jobs report benchmark revision
- ai impact on employment
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AMZN
- META
- GOOGL
- GOOG
- Amazon
- Meta
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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