Episode summary
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
The Meb Faber Show
· · 42 min · Hosts: Meb Faber · Guests: Tom Lee
Summary
Tom Lee argued that the market’s resilience is the main story: despite war, record oil prices, and persistent skepticism, the S&P 500 has made new highs and the same AI and semis leaders are still working. He said that reflects a strong U.S. economy and, just as importantly, weak investor conviction, not an overextended market top.
He kept a bullish year-end framework for the S&P 500, saying 7,300 was an early target and 7,700 remains possible for 2026, while warning that a midyear pause or correction is still plausible. Lee said oil remains the biggest unknown because current prices may not reflect the eventual clearing price later this year, and he expects turbulence if the market has to reconcile that gap or if the new Fed chair changes the policy narrative.
Lee also argued that sentiment data are less reliable than many investors assume, especially the University of Michigan survey, which he said has become partisan and noisy. On the positive side, he sees private credit problems as non-systemic, software as increasingly attractive after a large de-rating, AI as a tailwind for U.S. productivity and entrepreneurship, and upcoming mega-IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI as a supply event that could still be absorbed by underallocated public-market capital.
Key takeaways
- Lee said the S&P 500’s strength through war and higher oil prices shows U.S. economic resilience and weak investor conviction, not euphoria.
- Lee still sees 7,700 on the S&P 500 as a 2026 target, but expects possible turbulence later this year around oil and the new Fed chair.
- Lee argued private credit is a problem but not systemic, while software stocks now offer better upside after a big relative selloff.
- Lee said AI should help U.S. productivity and entrepreneurship, and the best software companies will use it to reinvent themselves.
- Lee thinks mega-IPOs such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could create supply pressure, but underallocated public-equity capital should absorb it over time.
Notable quotes
“the US is in the midst of a war that could be a long war and oil prices are at record highs”
“I think it really speaks to me about the resilience of the US economy and maybe the continued very weak conviction of most investors”
“private credit is a problem but it's not systematic”
“I think a lot of positive reward now exists in software stocks”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Met Favor Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth. Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. Better investing starts here.
Met Faber is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Camry Investment Management. Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Camry's funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Camri Investment Management or its affiliates.
For more information, visit cambrianvestments.com.
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Welcome back everybody. We got a great episode today. I'm super excited.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market crash fears
- s&p 500 outlook
- mega ipos
- granny shots etf
- consumer sentiment index
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Fundstrat Capital
- Fundstrat Global Advisors
- J.P. Morgan
Watch the episode
Watch “Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Meb Faber Show, this episode and its artwork belong to The Idea Farm. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
