Could We Lose the Persian Gulf? Scott Galloway and Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan argues that Iran’s new leader is facing a messy political and economic situation, and that any hope of a quiet backchannel deal with the United States is unlikely to be enough to stabilize the country quickly. He says Iran’s oil base is far weaker than in the 1970s, with exports down to about 1 million barrels a day from more than 4 million, and rebuilding enough capacity to give the regime room to absorb criticism would take years.

The bigger warning is that Iran has shifted from trying to hit Israel directly to targeting Gulf states that are closer and more vulnerable. Zeihan says Shahed drones are cheap, easy to build, and can overwhelm expensive PAC-3 interceptors, creating a real risk that Gulf air defenses will simply run out. He argues that while missiles are still a more manageable threat, the drone campaign could soon leave the Persian Gulf unable to protect its oil infrastructure.

That, he says, could remove a major share of global hydrocarbons from the market and reshape relations among Iran, the Gulf states, Israel, and the United States. He also argues that pressure on Iran has already reduced the funding behind its regional proxies, lowering sectarian violence even as the conflict becomes more dangerous in other ways.