"East Asia Is Gone" — Peter Zeihan on the Oil Shock No One Is Ready For

Peter Zeihan argues that the real macro risk is not just higher oil prices, but a supply shock that could hit East Asia hardest. He says Persian Gulf exports run about 20 million barrels a day, roughly 80% of which goes to East Asia, and warns that if the disruption lasts a month, it could break the economic models of most of the region. He adds that China could be especially exposed because its import cover may be far thinner than commonly assumed.

He says the situation is worsened by Europe’s accelerating seizures of Russian shadow-fleet tankers, which could threaten millions of barrels a day of Russian exports. In his view, the world is moving toward a “perfect storm” in which Persian Gulf, Russian, and potentially American crude could all be constrained at once. He argues that Russia benefits from higher oil only if it can still export, while the United States is comparatively insulated because it can more easily step back from global energy flows.

Zeihan also points to Ukraine, where he says private technology changes have swung the tactical balance. He says Starlink restrictions have sharply reduced Russian command-and-control, helping Ukraine go back on the offensive in several parts of the front. On a peace settlement, he is skeptical: he says Russian history suggests Moscow does not negotiate seriously until it has already won or lost.