"There's Only One Place to Put Your Money" — Peter Zeihan on America's Edge

Peter Zeihan argues that Russia’s edge is not technical sophistication but an unusual ability to absorb losses, while the United States has not faced a true existential external threat since the Civil War. He says that shapes how America fights: it projects power, so it spends more per person and relies on technology, reach, speed, and lethality rather than manpower.

On Europe, he says a cutoff of Persian Gulf crude would force painful choices on Russia and Ukraine, but also expose how weak Europe’s energy and industrial position really is. In his view, Europe lacks the land, climate, and infrastructure to scale green alternatives fast enough, so its practical future is likely coal, especially lignite, even if that conflicts with environmental goals. He extends the same logic to China, saying the world is looking at the end of both Europe Inc. and China Inc. as major manufacturing powers.

Zeihan also says the U.S. is still the least-bad place to own assets because it remains a services-led, energy-independent economy with two oceans, a large consumer base, and a globally dominant military. He says tariffs and policy volatility have already discouraged new manufacturing investment, but even after reputational damage from war and policy mistakes, the dollar still has no real alternative.