Episode summary
Stock Picking in Difficult Times with George Noble | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 76
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · 51 min · Hosts: Steve Eisman · Guests: George Noble
Summary
George Noble argues that the current market is being driven less by isolated data points than by a regime shift in macro conditions: runaway fiscal deficits, AI-related capital spending, and tighter real-world constraints. On interest rates, he says Scott Bessent is in an almost impossible position because the Treasury cannot sustainably suppress yields when debt issuance is so large and when AI investment is adding more upward pressure on rates. He also says monthly inflation prints are being overemphasized; in his view, the market has moved from chronically overestimating inflation after the GFC to chronically underestimating it since 2022.
The discussion on AI is more skeptical. George Noble says investors should ask about ROI rather than chip demand or narrative, and he sees the ecosystem as vulnerable because it depends heavily on OpenAI and Anthropic. He also argues that much of the enthusiasm is a story-driven bubble supported by circular financing and passive flows rather than durable economics.
He is even more negative on Tesla and SpaceX. George Noble says Tesla’s core auto business is deteriorating, robotaxi economics are unrealistic, and the stock is driven by narrative. He says SpaceX is wildly overvalued relative to its more defensible businesses and that the float increase could pressure the stock further.
Key takeaways
- George Noble says Scott Bessent cannot meaningfully repress interest rates because the Treasury is fighting deficits, AI-related issuance, and a credibility problem all at once.
- George Noble argues the bond market is underestimating inflation again because fiscal dominance and supply constraints make stimulus more inflationary than in the post-GFC era.
- George Noble says the AI trade should be judged on ROI, and he believes the ecosystem is dangerously dependent on OpenAI and Anthropic.
- George Noble is bearish on Tesla because he says sales are deteriorating, capex is rising toward $30 billion, and the robotaxi story does not justify the valuation.
- George Noble says SpaceX is priced far above what he thinks its businesses are worth, and the expanding free float could expose that gap.
Notable quotes
“The point is AI is set up to fail. Okay”
“Show me the ROI”
How the episode opens
Hey, it's Steve Eisman. Welcome to another episode of The Real Eisman Playbook. We get a lot of different types of guests on this show.
We get sellside analysts, we get byside analysts, we get authors, we get economists, we're getting substackers, but it's nice to sometimes get someone who has a background that's similar to mine, who has been an asset manager and is now a podcaster and is expressing opinions like I've been expressing opinions. And that person is George Noble, who was once a portfolio manager at Fidelity and now is a podcaster, newsletter writer. and we're going to have a very broad ranging conversation about a whole range of topics.
And when we're done, I'll be back with some thoughts. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another episode of The Real Eisman Playbook. Our guest today, George Noble, who has been here before, who has been a portfolio manager, uh he's now a podcaster and a newsletter writer, kind of like me.
Um, so George, welcome back. It's always a pleasure to be here with you, Steve.
So, not that there's much going on. — No, — But let's start. We got so many things to cover. Let's just start with the latest news. G give me You give me your thoughts. I'll give you my thoughts about the whole Treasury Secretary Scott Besson trying to, for lack of a better term, repress interest rates. What What are your thoughts about this?
Before I answer that, uh it's just one of the lines I always use. It's the quote from Vladimir Lenon where sometimes years go by and nothing happens and sometimes weeks go by and years happen. Okay, we're in one of those right now.
All right, we're also in one of those periods where you and I are both stock pickers, but there are times when you really have to pay attention to macro and there are times when the macro is rather quiescent.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- interest rates
- yen carry trade
- ai ecosystem
- dollar yen trade
- stock picking in difficult times
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TSLA
- Fidelity
- Tesla
- SpaceX
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
