Episode summary
How the 50-Week Moving Average Signals Bitcoin's Bear Market Is Over
Unchained
· · Hosts: Laura Shin · Guests: Alex Thorn
Summary
Alex Thorn argues that Bitcoin bottomed in late June and that the market has already moved into a new phase of the cycle. His case rests on four pillars: technicals, fundamentals, positioning, and sentiment. The strongest technical signal, he says, is that Bitcoin has traded five or six weeks above its 50-week moving average, which in prior bear markets meant the bottom was already in.
He also says this cycle has been unusually shallow, with both the drawdown and the prior advance smaller than in earlier cycles, which he reads as a sign of Bitcoin’s growing maturity and lower volatility. On positioning, he points to CFTC and 13F data showing that fast-money hedge funds such as Millennium and D.E. Shaw cut exposure, while longer-term allocators like Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Mubadala added. That shift, he argues, leaves Bitcoin lightly owned and gives buyers a better risk-adjusted entry than chasing a fresh bottom.
Thorn’s broader view is that Bitcoin is being supported by more stable, longer-duration capital now, including ETF buyers, and that makes a deeper washout less likely if history continues to rhyme.
Key takeaways
- Alex Thorn says five or six weekly closes above Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average have marked the end of prior bear markets.
- Thorn says this cycle’s bear market and prior rally were both the shallowest on record, which he views as a sign of maturity and lower volatility.
- 13F and CFTC data, in Thorn’s view, show fast-money funds cutting Bitcoin exposure while wealth managers and sovereign funds added.
- Thorn says light positioning means investors can buy Bitcoin with better risk/reward now than trying to time a lower bottom.
- Thorn argues Bitcoin is increasingly owned by slower capital, including ETF buyers, which could help cushion future drawdowns.
Notable quotes
“we're now five or six weeks of trading over the 50-week moving average. That gives me I mean, again, the the the the data set is, you know, three or four bear markets. So it's”
“If history is any guide at all, then the bear market bottom is in”
“That positioning is light and so, you sort of have a chance to beat the crowd”
“the biggest gainers and and and adders of Bitcoin spot ETF exposure in Q2 are Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, uh Mubadala and Abu Dhabi”
Topics
- bitcoin moving average
- bitcoin bear market signals
- bitcoin etf flows
- institutional positioning
- sovereign wealth buying
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GLXY
- MS
- Galaxy
- Millennium Management
- D.E. Shaw
- Mubadala
- Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Watch the episode
Watch “How the 50-Week Moving Average Signals Bitcoin's Bear Market Is Over” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Unchained, this episode and its artwork belong to Laura Shin. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
