Midterm Tsunami, Equity Perps + Uncensored Ai - The Chopping Block

The hosts argue that the 2026 midterms produced a blue tsunami that both polls and prediction markets largely anticipated, though the markets got there earlier. They say Polymarket was showing a 99% chance of total congressional control by around 7 PM, while the polls still underestimated the scale of the Democratic win, especially in deep-red seats and states like Texas and Mississippi.

For crypto, the panel sees a roughly 2:1 pro-crypto Congress in both chambers, but almost no chance of near-term legislation. The host and guests expect the next two years to be dominated by hearings, investigations, and messaging around Trump corruption, including crypto-related topics like World Liberty Financial and Trumpcoin, rather than by any bipartisan bill becoming law.

They also discuss the CFTC’s move to clear single-stock perps for U.S. venues, which Cboe and Citadel challenged within hours. The panel is skeptical of the lawsuit’s motives, arguing that market makers would likely want the volume if the product were ready. They then turn to AI, where Anthropic’s latest filing showed Q3 revenue of $17 billion versus $11.5 billion in Q2, and to the political fight over “obliterated” open-source models, which the panel frames as a free-speech and cybersecurity issue that regulators are unlikely to eliminate.