Episode summary
China's Neighbors Won't Come to Assistance in a Global Crisis,' Nicholas Burns Says
Wall Street Week
· · Guests: Nicholas Burns
Summary
Nicholas Burns argues that the Iran conflict is already creating strategic gains for Russia, because U.S. decisions to loosen pressure on Russian and Iranian oil are sending cash into Moscow and undermining support for Ukraine. He says Ukraine is still fighting effectively, especially with drones hitting Russian energy infrastructure, and he wants the U.S. to return to stronger backing for Kyiv and more pressure on Vladimir Putin.
Burns says the Iranian war matters far beyond the Middle East because Europe and major Asian economies depend on energy moving through the Strait of Hormuz. He warns that if Iran emerges with lasting control over that chokepoint, it could blackmail global energy markets for years, while Europe remains vulnerable because it no longer has Russian energy as a fallback.
Turning to China, Burns says the U.S. and China are close in total power, but America has a major advantage if it keeps Japan, India, the Philippines, Australia, and Europe aligned. His central argument is that the Trump administration has weakened that advantage by insulting and distancing allies, even though Russia and China lack comparable alliance networks of their own.
Key takeaways
- Burns says U.S. easing on Russian oil sales gives Moscow an immediate financial boost and works against the goal of helping Ukraine.
- He argues Ukraine is not losing and should get renewed U.S. political and economic backing against Putin.
- Burns warns that Iran gaining dominance over the Strait of Hormuz could let it threaten global energy flows for 10 to 15 years.
- He says Europe cannot fill the gap alone because it lacks the U.S. stockpiles and firepower needed for the Ukraine and Gulf crises.
- Burns believes America’s biggest advantage over China is its alliance network, not pure bilateral power.
- He says Russia and China cannot count on allies in a global crisis the way the U.S. can.
Notable quotes
“-The United States removed sanctions on the sale of Russian oil. With oil prices now north of $100 a barrel, that's an immediate infusion of cash and confidence into the Russian economy”
“It's directly contrary to our interest, which is to see Russia suffer economically so that hopefully we can support Ukraine in the war effort”
“The Ukrainians are using drone technology to strike at the export terminals up near Saint Petersburg that are exporting some of that unsanctioned Russian oil, and they're striking at Russian power plants”
“I cannot imagine that this war will end with Iran ending up as the toll keeper on the Strait of Hormuz, exercising this dominance over global energy markets”
“the United States is almost always stronger working with allies than not”
How the episode opens
It may be way too early to know who will win the war in Iran, but Ambassador Nick Burns of Harvard's Kennedy School says we can certainly see one winner. -The United States removed sanctions on the sale of Russian oil. With oil prices now north of $100 a barrel, that's an immediate infusion of cash and confidence into the Russian economy.
It's directly contrary to our interest, which is to see Russia suffer economically so that hopefully we can support Ukraine in the war effort. The same thing, I found it just extraordinarily ironic when we also allowed the sale of Iranian oil in the fourth week of the war. Westin: What does this mean for President Zelensky?
-A lot of very smart military analysts are saying Ukrainians are actually gaining in this war. The Ukrainians are using drone technology to strike at the export terminals up near Saint Petersburg that are exporting some of that unsanctioned Russian oil, and they're striking at Russian power plants. And it's not as if Ukraine's losing the war, which was President Trump's theory of the case a couple of months ago when he switched the United States from supporting Ukraine, to almost being President Putin's lawyer.
I think it's clearly in the interests of the United States now that Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, become Zelensky's lawyer again. I hope President Trump will turn back and support him, and put more economic and political pressure on Putin. "Why is this important?
"President Trump says we don't have "any interest in Europe. We do have interest in Europe. Europe's our lead trade partner, largest investor in the American economy, European Union, largest number of American allies in the world, NATO.
And we don't want to see Europe become divided again, become unfree again, the eastern half of Europe.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran conflict
- ukraine war
- china tensions
- us alliances
- geopolitical power shifts
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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