Episode summary
Haass: Iran Has Far More Leverage Than Before War
Wall Street Week
· · Guests: Richard Haass
Summary
Richard Haass argues that the talks over Iran come after a war that has changed the balance of leverage, even if the United States and Israel can claim battlefield success. He says early negotiations are usually posturing, but here the gap is unusually wide and the setting is still unstable rather than a true cease-fire.
For Haass, the most urgent issue is the Strait of Hormuz, not the nuclear file, because disruption there would damage the global economy and give Iran too much control over a critical chokepoint. He proposes an international authority or commission to govern the strait, with China and other dependent countries involved, and says a blockade could be the fallback if Iran cannot accept shared access.
He also says the conflict has exposed a divergence between U.S. and Israeli interests, especially over Israel's actions in Lebanon. Looking beyond diplomacy, Haass says companies should assume the Gulf is less stable than before, and rethink investment, energy, and geographic concentration. He does not expect a final resolution unless Iran's political system changes, so the realistic goal is management, not closure.
Key takeaways
- Haass says Iran emerges from the war with far more political leverage than it had before, even if it lost on the battlefield.
- He считает the Strait of Hormuz the most time-urgent issue and wants it kept open for all, including Iran, under shared governance.
- Haass argues the United States should tell Israel to stop escalating in Lebanon because U.S. and Israeli interests are diverging.
- He says Gulf business models built on stability now look less reliable, pushing corporations toward diversification and greater energy security.
- Haass does not expect a true resolution unless Iran's political system changes, so he thinks the conflict will be managed rather than solved.
Notable quotes
“the beginning of negotiations tends to be throat clearing. In my experience”
“the Strait of Hormuz is the big issue. What we cannot allow is for Iran to exercise sole control over the strait”
“I think Iran has discovered that it has more leverage than it ever quite realized before”
“The United States and Israel, by normal measures of warfare, have done extremely well. But strategically, politically, Iran has emerged with far more leverage than it had before”
“I think your word management is the right word”
How the episode opens
But we start with the war in Iran and the cease fire announced this week, with negotiations taking place in Pakistan led by Vice President Vance. Ambassador Richard Haass served as a diplomat in both Republican and Democratic administrations before leading the Council on Foreign Relations for two decades. He now is with Centerview Partners.
Richard, you have been in the room, as it were, for some very high level negotiations. Give us a guide to how we should look at the negotiations going on right now involving the war in Iran. Well, the beginning of negotiations tends to be throat clearing.
In my experience. The people are often posturing, getting comfortable. The fact that, and particularly the US side is so inexperienced.
You've got two non-diplomats who have been the principal diplomats for the United States. And then you've got the vice president who doesn't have a long background. Plus David.
The two sides, shall we say to say they're far apart would be a diplomatic understatement. They are, someone pointed out it's wider than the Strait of Hormuz. The differences between the, the two sides.
And the question is, to what extent are they willing and able? Are they prepared essentially to, to begin to bridge the, the differences? So this is a tall order.
Plus one more thing. It's taking place against the backdrop, shall we say, of something other than a cease fire. This is already a messy situation.
It's not war, but it's not. It's not peace or even a pause. It's it's something in between, which, again, complicates the task.
As a diplomat, how do you start breaking down that gap as you describe it? I mean, people have said in a Venn diagram, there's no overlap right now. The position of the two sides.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran talks
- foreign policy
- iran leverage
- war outlook
- u.s. negotiation
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Centerview Partners
Watch the episode
Watch “Haass: Iran Has Far More Leverage Than Before War” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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