Episode summary
Oil Access and Power Politics: Inside America’s Venezuela Strategy
Wall Street Week
· · 9 min · Hosts: Chrystia Freeland, David Westin · Guests: Richard Haass
Summary
Richard Haass argues that the Trump administration’s Venezuela policy is driven first by access to oil, not regime change, democracy promotion, or human rights. He says the United States may have secondary goals around Cuba, Russia, China and drug trafficking, but the central objective is giving American oil companies access to Venezuela’s large, though degraded, oil sector.
Haass maps the range of outcomes inside Venezuela from a relatively stable arrangement with more continuity than change to a breakdown in order if rival groups begin fighting. He also warns that any U.S.-brokered oil-sharing deal could trigger nationalist backlash inside Venezuela, because sweetheart terms for outsiders often become politically unsustainable.
Beyond Venezuela, he says the policy points to broader U.S. pressure across Latin America and even Greenland, reflecting a more commercial and homeland-security-centered foreign policy. He thinks Cuba is most vulnerable, Colombia’s relationship with Washington has deteriorated, and Mexico, Canada, and Greenland all sit inside a widening sphere of U.S. strategic attention. He says Vladimir Putin likely sees the Venezuela move as favorable because it reinforces great-power latitude and pulls the U.S. further away from Europe, making a Ukraine settlement even less likely.
Key takeaways
- Richard Haass says the U.S. goal in Venezuela is “American oil companies” gaining access to the country’s oil sector, not regime change or democracy promotion.
- Haass sees the best case as continuity with limited violence, but the worst case as a breakdown where rival groups “start to slug it out.”
- He warns that any arrangement that looks like a sweetheart deal for Americans could spark nationalist backlash inside Venezuela.
- Haass says Cuba is likely the most nervous regional player, while Colombia, Mexico, Canada, and Greenland are also being pulled into Washington’s wider strategy.
- He thinks Putin benefits because the Venezuela episode normalizes great-power action and makes an end to the Ukraine war less likely.
Notable quotes
“-It is not regime change. It is not democracy or human rights”
“I think the goal of the United States, at a minimum, is American... The access for American companies, American oil companies, to Venezuela's oil sector”
“-The best it can be is what we just described actually holds, that you have a situation there where you have more continuity than change”
“At the other end of the menu is a real breakdown of order, that rival groups essentially start to slug it out”
“This administration essentially sees foreign policy more in terms of homeland security and economic welfare”
How the episode opens
But we begin with the dramatic developments in Venezuela last weekend, when the United States sent its military in to seize President Maduro and his wife, transporting them to New York to stand trial on criminal charges. Richard Haass has spent his career in and out of government advising on foreign policy. He is Senior Counselor at Centerview Partners, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of the Substack newsletter "Home and Away.
When there's so much uncertainty, it's helpful to know where you're headed. What is the goal of the United States government right now, as far as you can discern it? -It is not regime change.
It is not democracy or human rights. I think the goal of the United States, at a minimum, is American... The access for American companies, American oil companies, to Venezuela's oil sector, which is large, but not quite as large as the statistics lead people to believe.
Yes, you've got 17, 18 percent of the world's supply, but a lot of it is hard to get to. A lot of it's not the greatest quality crude. It's in terrible disrepair.
But anyhow, I think that's priority number one. Whether there are other priorities, for example, to stop Venezuelan support of Cuba, even though as much or more comes from Mexico, but there's that. Whether to wean Venezuela from Russia, China, and others, obviously to keep them out of the drug trade.
So I think there may be secondary or subsidiary objectives, but the principal objective, and the president talked about it, what, 15, 20 times at the Saturday press conference last week, was the oil, the oil access. Westin: When you were in the State Department with Secretary Powell, you were head of, as you say, policy planning, not policy prediction.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- venezuela strategy
- oil access
- u.s. foreign policy
- democracy promotion
- latin america markets
Watch the episode
Watch “Oil Access and Power Politics: Inside America’s Venezuela Strategy” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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