Episode summary
President Trump’s $2 Billion Quantum Bet
Wall Street Week
· · 12 min · Hosts: Chrystia Freeland, David Westin · Guests: Sam Palmisano
Summary
The Trump administration’s planned $2 billion investment in nine quantum computing firms is framed as a government venture-capital bet, not a grant program, and the announcement sent quantum stocks like Rigetti and D-Wave higher. IBM is set to receive half of the money, but the segment argues that the bigger question is whether the state should be choosing winners in a field that is still far from commercial scale.
Sam Palmisano, the former IBM CEO, says quantum’s societal promise is real but the timeline is still long. He points to applications in disease, energy, financial markets, logistics, national security and cyber, yet says the technology remains years away from broad business use and that his own earlier forecasts were too optimistic. He argues that governments are better at funding research and building infrastructure than at picking individual companies or running them.
The discussion contrasts IBM’s roadmap, which targets quantum advantage in a big way by 2029, with IonQ’s claim that it is already ahead. Palmisano says $2 billion is a start, but far too small to make quantum a finished commercial system, especially versus the scale of AI spending, and he doubts the technology will be ready for hospitals, banks and other real-world users in two to three years.
Key takeaways
- Palmisano says quantum could matter for disease, energy, financial markets, logistics, national security and cyber, but the commercial payoff is still years away.
- He argues the government should fund infrastructure and research, not pick specific quantum winners through equity stakes.
- IBM says its roadmap reaches a major quantum milestone by 2029, while IonQ says it is already ahead on performance.
- Palmisano says $2 billion is a meaningful start but not enough to make quantum a robust commercial system.
- He believes hybrid quantum systems still need cloud and AI, but not enough for hospitals or banks to rely on in two to three years.
Notable quotes
“This is a story about the government as venture capitalist. The Trump administration has announced it will invest $2 billion in nine quantum computing firms”
“the societal implications are greater than the financial investment. I mean, to put it in perspective, three decades ago I invested in quantum in IBM research”
“I think the model is challenged, because when you make an equity investment, maybe they're spreading their risk”
“I don't think it's going to be there in two to three years. I mean, they're working on it like crazy, but I think this thing's got a way to go from a financial perspective”
“The two billion, I mean, it's it's a it's a start, but it's certainly not going to be the finish”
How the episode opens
This is a story about the government as venture capitalist. The Trump administration has announced it will invest $2 billion in nine quantum computing firms. — The Trump administration taking stake in select quantum computing firms. — That entire ecosystem of quantum computing stocks like Rigetti and D-Wave all moving higher on the back of that news.
Really strong optimism on this quantum computing sector. — These investments will not be grants or contracts to buy from these firms. They will be equity stakes in the frontier technology of harnessing quantum physics to build an entire new form of computing. Something talked about and researched for years, but that has remained stubbornly on the horizon. IBM by itself will receive half of the government investment.
Sam Palmisano spent 40 years at IBM rising to be its chairman and CEO. He was there when the company began its quantum quest. — I think
The societal implications are greater than the financial investment. I mean, to put it in perspective, three decades ago I invested in quantum in IBM research. So, when I left the board, which was 20 years ago, I said it'll be there in 10 to 15 years.
I'm wrong again. I'm wrong again. It's very difficult scientific problems.
Disease, energy, financial markets, logistics, national security, cyber. Uh it has the technology to do things that would have taken days on a supercomputer that IBM built, could maybe take an hour or two, literally. I mean, there's things that are intractable that we deal with as a society.
Uh climate change, those kinds of things. Things that are heavily scientific and and also physics in this field can all be addressed assuming, you know, where they are actually does happen in the next two or three years.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- quantum computing
- us venture investing
- ai and drug discovery
- cybersecurity
- government industrial policy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IBM
- IONQ
- IBM
- IonQ
Watch the episode
Watch “President Trump’s $2 Billion Quantum Bet” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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