Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST?
Short Answer
Silver prices appear likely to close above $48.25 on November 12, 2026, at 5:00 PM EST. Multiple spot price reports for that day showed silver trading above the market's implied median, with some closes as high as $50.91, a probability the market prices at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's sharp reversal was driven by reported spot silver prices on November 12, 2026. While silver did decline on the day, multiple financial news sources placed its price in a range between $49.88 and $50.91 per ounce. As this price level is firmly above the likely $48.00 threshold for this contract, the probability of the market resolving to "YES" collapsed from 76% to 1%. The market rapidly priced in a near-certain "NO" outcome once the day's actual trading range became clear.
The initial high probability of 76% suggests traders were speculating that the negative momentum would be sufficient to push silver's price below the contract's threshold. This sentiment was supported by reports that silver was trading near 52-week lows. However, when the price stabilized well above that level, the basis for this speculation evaporated. The major price adjustments shown in the sample data occurred on zero reported volume, indicating the repricing was a direct response to incoming price data rather than active trading pressure.
- Silver price closed above $50.60 on Nov 12, 2026, per spot reports.
- Spot prices on Nov 12, 2026, exceeded the market's implied median.
- Dollar strength and October CPI print drove recent downward market adjustments.
Current Context
Silver prices declined on November 12, trading near 52-week lows. On November 12, 2026, spot silver prices generally traded lower, with reports placing values between $49.88 per ounce and $50.91 per troy ounce [1][2][3][4][5]. USA Today reported the spot price at $50.13 per ounce at 1:05 PM ET, down 2.23% ($1.14) from the previous close of $51.27 [6]. USA Gold noted silver at $49.88 per ounce, a 3.47% daily decline, as gold tumbled 3% and the dollar reached a 19-month high [1]. FXBus cited a closing spot price of $50.61 per ounce, down 2.01%, with COMEX futures at $50.63 per ounce, down 2.64% [3]. Myfxbook data showed a close of $49.998, representing a 2.51% daily change, following a previous day's close of $51.66 [4]. Investing.com reported a price of $50.9110, down 1.52%, with a prior day close of $51.6960 [5]. Silver has fallen 5.84% over the past 12 months from $53.24 per ounce and is down 28.38% since the beginning of the year [6][2]. The 52-week range spans $49.13 to $117.85, with current prices 57.46% below the high [6]. Technical analysis indicates an immediate support zone of $51.22-$50.44, with a sustained breakdown below $50.44 potentially exposing $49.21 [7].
Prediction markets lean bullish while Fed rate hike expectations pressure prices. The Kalshi prediction market for the 5:00 PM EST settlement on November 12, 2026, showed probabilities for silver remaining above key thresholds. As of 3:00 AM UTC, probabilities included 98.5% for Above $48, 92% for Above $50, and 48.5% for Above $51.50 [8]. The market settles based on the Pyth Silver 1-minute candlestick close [8][9]. Broader macroeconomic factors currently weigh on precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool assigns an 89% probability to a quarter-point Fed rate hike in December, with a nearly 91% overall probability of a December rate hike priced in by markets [1][10]. US October CPI data surpassed expectations, which Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) suggested hit a "threshold for a large rate hike," contributing to a stronger US dollar index near 103 and higher 10-year Treasury yields [11]. FXEmpire noted that rising real yields, with the 5-year Treasury par real-yield at 2.56% and the 10-year at 2.78%, maintained selling pressure below $55, a level that Christopher Lewis believes will act as a ceiling [12].
Analysts project higher silver prices amidst structural supply deficits. Despite recent price declines, institutional forecasts for silver generally project significantly higher averages for 2026 and beyond. The World Bank forecasts silver to average $70 per ounce in 2026, then decline to $62 in 2027 and $58 in 2028, noting that prices fell 14% in the third quarter due to easing physical market tightness and higher interest rates [13]. JPMorgan Global Research projects silver at $63 per ounce in Q4 2026, averaging $70 per ounce for the year and $63 per ounce in 2027 [14]. Other global banks anticipate silver to trade in a wide range next year, with forecasts spanning the low $60s to $95 per ounce; for example, Commerzbank projects $95, UBS projects $80, and Citi expects an average of $75 within a $65-$95 range [15]. The global silver market has entered its fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficits, driven by insufficient mine production and refinery bottlenecks, according to the Silver Institute [12]. BlackRock highlights long-term demand support from industrial applications in AI infrastructure, electrification, and solar, with solar photovoltaic technology accounting for nearly 29% of total silver industrial demand in 2024 [16]. However, JPMorgan also observed light investor positioning in gold and silver as of November 9, and notes that solar demand for silver could fall by about 30% this year due to silver-thrifting technologies and weakening industrial demand [17][14].
Sources (17)
- 1Gold Tumbles 3% to $3,866 as Dollar Hits 19-Month High on Fed Hike Bets; Silver Slides Under $50usagold.com
- 2Silver price today: falls on November 12fxstreet.com
- 3Spot silver fell 2.01% on the day, closing at $50.61 per ounce; COMEX silver futures were last quoted at $50.63 per ounce, down 2.64% on the day.FXBus - Real-Time Financial Newsfxbus.com
- 4XAGUSD Silver vs US Dollar XAG USD Historical Forex Data | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
- 5XAG USD Historical Data - Investing.com PHph.investing.com
- 6Silver Price Today: Silver Falls 2.23% on November 12, 2026usatoday.com
- 7Silver’s Turning Point: Can Buyers Defend $51.22 and Reclaim $52.20? | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 8Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 9How Kalshi Markets Settle — Resolution Rules & Trapspredictionmarketspicks.com
- 10Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $51.50 ahead of US key economic datafxstreet.com
- 11CPI exceeds expectations amid hawkish Fed signals; silver retreats after rapid rise, center pulls back [SMM Silver Weekly Review] - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)news.metal.com
- 12Silver Falls as Rising Real Yields Overshadow Supply Deficits | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 13World Bank sees gold holding above $4,000 through 2028, but warns silver faces steeper correction | Kitco Newskitco.com
- 14Silver Price Forecast for 2026 and 2027jpmorgan.com
- 15Silver prices correct sharply from record highs; brokerages see wide trading range next year - CNBC TV18cnbctv18.com
- 16Gold and silver: Price, market volatility, and what is next | BlackRockblackrock.com
- 17Silver Price Prediction: JP Morgan Flags Light Positioning In Gold And Silverexchangerates.org.uk
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $51
📉 November 12, 2026: 90.0pp drop
Price decreased from 93.0% to 3.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market's 90.0 percentage point drop was traditional news: hotter-than-forecast October CPI data and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller [1]. These announcements, made around or before November 12, 2026, significantly increased the probability of a December 2026 Fed rate hike to 89-91% [1]. This strengthened the dollar to a 19-month high, which in turn pressured precious metals like silver, causing spot prices to fall below $51 [1]. Social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement, as the provided research mentions no related activity for this date.
Outcome: Above $52.50
📉 November 11, 2026: 46.0pp drop
Price decreased from 63.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 46.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $52.50" outcome on November 11, 2026, was the release of hotter-than-expected US October CPI data [1][2][3]. This inflation report, which showed a 0.4% increase versus an expected 0.3%, fueled expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, thereby strengthening the US dollar and elevating Treasury yields [1][3]. Consequently, spot silver fell approximately 2.9% on November 11, 2026, making the "Above $52.50" threshold appear less likely [3]. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific market shift, as widespread retail investor frenzy was noted primarily in January 2026 [4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1Gold Tumbles 3% to $3,866 as Dollar Hits 19-Month High on Fed Hike Bets; Silver Slides Under $50usagold.com
- 2Gold and Silver: Sharp Decline After US Inflation Data | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 3Silver Falls Nearly 3% as Hot U.S. Inflation Raises December Rate Hike Risk and Puts the $50 Support Level in Focus by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisoryinvestmentguruindia.com
- 4Silver Plunges 40% in Three Days: Retail Leverage Frenzy Meets "Structural Ambush," Institutions Harvest Profits in Four Stepsfinance.biggo.com
- 5Is silver a meme trade? How the metal became 'GameStop in 2026'cnbc.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market, "Silver price today at 5:00 PM EST?", specifically for the "Above $50" contract, resolves to YES if the silver price is greater than $50 at 5:00 PM EST on November 12, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to NO if the price is $50 or less at that time. The market's resolution is determined by the continuous index feed, Metal.Index.SILVER/USD (ID 3154).
Market Discussion
Silver closed at approximately $50.61 per troy ounce on November 12, 2026, declining 2.01% for the day [1][2], largely driven by a hotter-than-expected October CPI print that boosted Fed rate hike expectations and strengthened the dollar [3][4][5]. While some analysts foresee a further drop towards $45 before a recovery, with overall sentiment leaning bearish [6][7][8], others believe silver may not trade below $50 again, and a prediction market on November 12, 2026, indicated an 84% probability of the price remaining above $50.50 [6][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Spot silver fell 2.01% on the day, closing at $50.61 per ounce; COMEX silver futures were last quoted at $50.63 per ounce, down 2.64% on the day.FXBus - Real-Time Financial Newsfxbus.com
- 2Silver Price Today: Silver Falls 2.23% on November 12, 2026usatoday.com
- 3Gold Tumbles 3% to $3,866 as Dollar Hits 19-Month High on Fed Hike Bets; Silver Slides Under $50usagold.com
- 4Silver prices today, Thursday, November 12, 2026: Silver holds at open as markets prep for another Fed rate increasefinance.yahoo.com
- 5Gold and silver price today, November 12: Check rates of 24K, 22K gold in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata other citiesmoneycontrol.com
- 6Silver Price Prediction: Analyst Who Called the Last Silver Crash Says $45 Comes Next - CaptainAltcoincaptainaltcoin.com
- 7What top creators are saying about Silver (XAG) | Kazuhakazuha.ai
- 8Silver Price Forecast For November 2026 From 120 To 50 2 | GoldPriceForecast.comgoldpriceforecast.com
- 9Peter Brandt Sees Silver Nearing a Final Low, But Warns of a Gradual Recoverybifu.co
- 10Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score81Good
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. What are the 2026 year-end silver price forecasts from major institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and The Silver Institute?
| Nov 12, 2026 Silver Price Median | $51.239 (Kalshi) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Probability Silver Above $50 (Nov 12, 2026) | 87-92% (Kalshi) [1][3][4] |
| October 2026 Silver Peak | $62 per troy ounce [2] |
Major institutions currently lack specific 2026 year-end silver price forecasts. No specific 2026 year-end silver price forecasts from major institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, or The Silver Institute were identified; the available information primarily originates from prediction market data [5][1][4][2]. For November 12, 2026, at 5:00 PM EST, the Kalshi prediction market indicates a market median silver price of $51.239 or $50.18, with a 50% probability of the price exceeding $51.25 per troy ounce [1][2].
Prediction markets indicate high probabilities for silver prices above $50. On November 12, 2026, prediction markets show a strong likelihood of silver remaining above certain thresholds. Specifically, Kalshi data suggests an approximate 87-92% probability that silver will be above $50, a 60-68% probability it will be above $51, and a 22-28% probability it will exceed $52 per troy ounce [1][3][4]. Public.com corroborates this outlook for the same date, identifying 'Above $50.75' as the leading outcome with an estimated 96% probability [5].
Recent volatility and end-of-November forecasts suggest silver prices around $51-53. The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with its price reaching $62 per troy ounce in October 2026 [2]. Towards the end of November, market anticipations continue to indicate prices in a similar range. The November 30, 2026, silver prediction market on Public.com shows a 64% probability of the price being above $50.99, a 56% probability above $51.99, and a 46% probability above $52.99, implying an expected range of $51-53 by the end of the month [6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026: Result & Odds History | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 3Will the silver close price be above 51.25 USD/t.oz on … | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 5Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6Silver at 1:30pm ET · 10-year TIPS auction Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 7Silver at 1:30pm ET · 20-year Treasury auction Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
7. How does the forecasted 2026 performance of silver compare to that of gold, based on projections for the gold-to-silver ratio from major commodity analysts?
| Implied Gold-to-Silver Ratio | 75-77:1 (November 12, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| Median Gold Price | ~$3,876 (November 12, 2026) [1][2][6] |
| Median Silver Price | $51.239-$51.25 (November 12, 2026) [4][5] |
Based on current projections for 2026, silver is expected to outperform gold. This assessment is primarily driven by an implied gold-to-silver ratio significantly below its historical average. Specifically, the gold-to-silver ratio for November 12, 2026, is projected to be approximately 75-77:1 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This forecast ratio is notably lower than the historical average range of 80-90:1, indicating a stronger relative performance for silver and higher anticipated volatility compared to gold during this period [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Prediction markets also provide specific price forecasts for both metals. For November 12, 2026, the median silver price is projected at $51.239, with a 50/50 probability line at $51.25 [4][5]. For the same date, the median gold price is projected at $3,876 [1][2][6]. Further supporting silver's relative strength, it notably reached $62 in October 2026 and traded in the $50-53 range in early November 2026. This demonstrates stronger percentage gains for silver compared to gold, which traded in the $3,850-4,000 range during the same timeframe [7][8][9][10][11].
Both metals show strong uptrends for the end of 2026, yet silver exhibits higher volatility. Gold is projected to remain above $3,500, and silver above $36.99, each with a 95% probability [1]. However, silver's price movements are expected to be more dynamic; prediction markets anticipate a 61% probability of silver falling to $48 in November 2026, while also assigning a 35% probability of it reaching $54 in the same month [1][8]. In contrast, gold is expected to hit $3,900 in November 2026 with a higher probability of 80% [1][8].
Sources (11)
- 1Commodities Prediction Markets — Odds & Trends | PredictionHeropredictionhero.com
- 2Commodities Prediction Markets: Odds, Movers & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 3Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6Gold price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 7What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026: Result & Odds History | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 8What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026: Result & Odds History | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 9Silver price on Nov 11, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 10Silver price on Nov 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 11Silver price on Nov 11, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
8. Which upcoming U.S. inflation reports (CPI) and Federal Reserve meetings in 2025-2026 are most likely to serve as catalysts for silver price volatility?
| Primary Volatility Period | Late 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Key Inflation Report Catalyst | US CPI on December 10, 2026 at 9:30am ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
| Key Federal Reserve Catalyst | Fed decision on December 9, 2026 at 3:30pm ET [1][8][3][4][9][10][11][12][13] |
Upcoming U.S. inflation reports show catalysts mostly in late 2026. The most significant upcoming U.S. inflation reports and Federal Reserve events identified as catalysts for silver price volatility are concentrated in late 2026, with available information not specifying events for 2025 or early 2026. Key CPI-related catalysts in late 2026 include the US PPI on November 13, 2026, at 9:30am ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]; US PCE inflation + GDP on November 25, 2026, at 9:30am ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]; US CPI on December 10, 2026, at 9:30am ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]; US PPI on December 15, 2026, at 9:30am ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]; and US PCE inflation + GDP on December 23, 2026, at 9:30am ET [1][2][3][4][5][6][7].
Federal Reserve events are also concentrated in late 2026. The most significant Federal Reserve events identified as catalysts for silver price volatility in late 2026 include the FOMC minutes on November 18, 2026, at 2:30pm ET [1][8][3][4][9][10][11][12][13]; the Fed Beige Book on November 25, 2026, at 2:30pm ET [1][8][3][4][9][10][11][12][13]; and a Fed decision on December 9, 2026, at 3:30pm ET [1][8][3][4][9][10][11][12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1Copper at 2:30pm ET · FOMC minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Silver at 9:30am ET · US PPI Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3Silver at 2:30pm ET · Fed Beige Book Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4Commodities Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Page 3 - Public.compublic.com
- 5Copper at 11:00am ET · US consumer confidence Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6Copper at 11:00am ET · Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary) Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 7Copper at 1:30pm ET · 10-year TIPS auction Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 8Silver at 10:45am ET · Bank of Canada decision Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 9Silver at 11:30pm ET · RBA decision Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 10Copper at 2:30pm ET · Fed Beige Book Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 11Gold at 2:30pm ET · Fed Beige Book Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 12Silver at 1:30pm ET · 10-year TIPS auction Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 13Silver Up or Down - 15 minutes Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
9. What does the CFTC's Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicate about net positioning by hedge funds in COMEX silver futures through 2026?
| Prediction Market Median Silver Price (Platform 1) | $51.239 on November 12, 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Probability of Silver Price Above $50 (Platform 1) | 92% on November 12, 2026 [1][2][3] |
| Prediction Market Median Silver Price (Platform 2) | $50.15 on November 12, 2026 [4] |
Research lacks CFTC COT data for silver futures through 2026.
The available research does not contain information regarding the CFTC's Commitment of Traders (COT) report, net positioning by hedge funds, or COMEX silver futures data through 2026. Consequently, a comprehensive answer to that specific aspect of net positioning cannot be provided based on the given facts.
Prediction markets forecast silver prices over $50 by late 2026.
However, primary findings from prediction markets offer insights into potential silver prices for November 12, 2026, at 5:00 PM EST. One prediction market indicated a median silver price of $51.239 for this date, with a 92% probability of the price being above $50 and a 50% probability of it exceeding $51.25 [1][2][3]. A separate prediction platform projected a median silver price of $50.15 for the same date, alongside a middle half range between $49.85 and $50.44 [4].
Recent silver market performance shows a short-term decline.
Recent data snapshots provide context on silver's performance, showing silver futures (SI=F) were down 4.02% and the silver ETF (SLV) was down 3.19% [4]. This suggests a recent decline from earlier higher price levels.
Sources (4)
- 1Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Commodities Prediction Markets — Odds & Trends | PredictionHeropredictionhero.com
- 4Commodities Prediction Markets: Odds, Movers & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
10. What is the consensus forecast for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) through 2026, and how does its historical correlation with silver suggest prices will react?
| Silver price peak (October 2026) | $62/oz [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Market median (November 12, 2026) | $51.24/oz [4][5] |
| Probability above $50 (November 12, 2026) | 92% [4][5][6] |
Silver surged significantly in October 2026, then consolidated around $50-52/oz. Silver's price action in October 2026 showed a significant surge to $62/oz, reflecting its historical inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and implying dollar weakness during that period [1][2][3][4][7]. Following this peak, silver began consolidating around the $50-52/oz range in November. Current market expectations point to continued stability within this range [1][2][3].
Silver is currently expected to trade around $51-51.50/oz. Current market expectations for November 12, 2026, place silver's value near $51-51.50/oz, with the Kalshi prediction market median specifically at $51.239/oz [1][2][3][4][7][5]. There is a high probability, at 92%, that silver will remain above $50, and a 50% probability that it will exceed $51.25 [4][5][6]. Traders also see an 84% chance of silver falling to $51 for the week of November 9, 2026, but only a 6% chance of it reaching $53 again, suggesting a confined trading range [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
- 1What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026: Result & Odds History | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 2What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026: Result & Odds History | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 3Silver price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT: Result & Odds History | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 4Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 6Commodities Prediction Markets — Odds & Trends | PredictionHeropredictionhero.com
- 7Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Silver prices on November 12, 2026, saw spot close at $50.61 per troy ounce, down 2.01%, with COMEX futures at $50.63, down 2.64% [1][2]. This occurred as the US dollar reached a 19-month high following an October CPI print (0.3% core) that exceeded forecasts, strengthening expectations for a December Fed rate hike [3][4][5]. CME FedWatch assigned an 89% probability to a quarter-point hike and 11% to a half-point move [4][5]. Silver was trading 57.46% below its 52-week high of $117.85 and only 2.04% above its 52-week low of $49.13 [1][6]. The metal had already fallen 28.38% since the beginning of 2026 [1][6].
Despite near-term macro headwinds from rising real yields, the global silver market entered its fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficits [7]. A 3% increase in mine production was insufficient to balance demand, with refinery bottlenecks capping secondary supply [7]. JPMorgan's metals and mining team observed on November 9, 2026, that 'investor positioning in gold and silver has turned light,' while Scotiabank described gold's recovery from its late-October low as constructive [8]. The next US futures positioning report was scheduled for November 16, 2026 [8].
Upcoming economic data includes US Initial Jobless Claims on November 12, US PPI on November 13, and G.17 industrial production data on November 17 [4][9][10]. A Fed rate hike decision is expected in December [4][9][10]. Technically, silver holds support at $51.14, a floor since November 5, with further support at $50.12 and $48.60–$49.00 [9][10]. Resistance is noted at $52.39, $53.43, and a major structural zone of $55.00–$55.50 [9][10]. A daily close below $51.27 would confirm a bearish path toward the yearly low at $48.60 [5]. The Kalshi prediction market on November 12, 2026, indicated an expected settlement price in the $50.50–$51.50 range [11][12].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 12, 2026
- Expiration: November 19, 2026
- Closes: November 12, 2026
Sources (12)
- 1Silver Price Today: Silver Falls 2.23% on November 12, 2026usatoday.com
- 2Spot silver fell 2.01% on the day, closing at $50.61 per ounce; COMEX silver futures were last quoted at $50.63 per ounce, down 2.64% on the day.FXBus - Real-Time Financial Newsfxbus.com
- 3Gold Tumbles 3% to $3,866 as Dollar Hits 19-Month High on Fed Hike Bets; Silver Slides Under $50usagold.com
- 4Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $51.50 ahead of US key economic datafxstreet.com
- 5Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Hike Bets Harden, Can Gold Hold $3,944? | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 6Silver price today: falls on November 12fxstreet.com
- 7Silver Falls as Rising Real Yields Overshadow Supply Deficits | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 8Silver Price Prediction: JP Morgan Flags Light Positioning In Gold And Silverexchangerates.org.uk
- 9GoldSilver Central’s Weekly Metals Outlook (9-13 November 2026)goldsilvercentral.com.sg
- 10Silver Price Forecast (12 November): This Week, Next Week and 2026kagels-trading.com
- 11Silver price on Nov 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 12How Kalshi Markets Settle — Resolution Rules & Trapspredictionmarketspicks.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSILVERD-26NOV1117-T57.75: NO (Nov 11, 2026)
- KXSILVERD-26NOV1117-T57.50: NO (Nov 11, 2026)
- KXSILVERD-26NOV1117-T57.25: NO (Nov 11, 2026)
- KXSILVERD-26NOV1117-T57: NO (Nov 11, 2026)
- KXSILVERD-26NOV1117-T56.75: NO (Nov 11, 2026)
