WTI Oil 15 min · $87.43 target
Short Answer
WTI Oil is likely to reach $87.43 within the 15-minute trading window ending 7:00PM EST, with the market pricing this at 64.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- WTI $87.43 target likely after stabilizing near that level late afternoon.
- A conclusive Middle East ceasefire deal could drop WTI below $87.00.
- EIA's 4.7M barrel inventory build creates bearish short-term pressure.
Current Context
WTI faces downward pressure from inventory build and geopolitical uncertainty. The Robinhood 15-minute WTI market for November 13, 2026, targeting $87.43, resolves on Pyth-verified WTI prices at the end of its 15-minute window, with payouts typically within one hour [1]. WTI spot on November 13, 2026, opened at $88.88, peaked at $89.66, bottomed at $87.77, and closed at $88.96 (+0.09%) [2]. The $87.43 target for the 6:45–7:00 PM EST window sits below the day's low, making the outcome dependent on WTI holding above this level after Friday's intraday slide below $87 [2]. EIA crude inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week ended November 6, 2026, exceeding the expected 1.1 million-barrel draw and pressuring WTI [3]. WTI is poised for a 2.5% weekly decline, following a 13% drop the prior week, while Brent is down approximately 2.4% after a 16% plunge [3]. Geopolitical tensions continue, with Trump stating on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was unnecessary to end the war, signaling sustained US blockade and sanctions on Iranian oil shipments [3]. Thursday incidents included Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the Yanbu facility, and an Aramco building in Riyadh, along with Iranian claims of four tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz, unverified by Reuters [3].
Technicals indicate bearish lean; prediction markets show varied sentiment. Barclays noted on November 13 that oil risks are skewed higher, citing Middle East flows at roughly 85% of pre-war levels (around 19.5 million b/d 30-day average), depressed ex-China inventories, and light speculative positioning [4]. Barclays recommended long Brent calendar spreads, maintaining price forecasts despite Brent/WTI falling approximately 7% in a week [4]. Technically, WTI faces resistance at $88.04 (23.6% Fibonacci) and $89.18 (200-hour SMA), with support at $87.00 (100-day SMA) and $85.22 [5]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is between 43 and 61, indicating a near-term bearish lean below $88.04–$92.53 [5]. Polymarket's WTI November touch markets on November 13 priced Yes outcomes at 81–85% for $90, 68–73% for $85, 40–43% for $95, 25% for $100, and 37–40% for $80 [6]. Robinhood's November 13 daily WTI bands traded at 57¢ for $88.00–88.99, 20¢ for $87.00–87.99, and 21¢ for $89.00–89.99 [7]. Alpha Payouts on November 3 selected Yes on WTI touching $90 in November at roughly 64¢, arguing that a nearly 7% drop during a month of peace-talk headlines was more likely than priced; the $90 line later increased to 81–85% as prices fell toward $85–87 [8]. Key upcoming dates include the December 2026 WTI contract (CLZ26, ~$88.80–89.08) expiry on Friday, November 20, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, November 17, and the Baker Hughes rig count and CFTC COT reports on Friday, November 13 [9]. A US–China summit is scheduled for next week, and Polymarket's November WTI touch markets conclude on December 1, 2026 [9].
Sources (9)
- 1November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 5:15–5:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Crude Oil WTI Spot / US Dollartwelvedata.com
- 3Oil prices set for second weekly decline as Trump to stay with Iran blockade | livelive.euronext.com
- 4Barclays sees oil risks skewed higher with Middle East flows still 15% below pre-warinvestinglive.com
- 5WTI Forecast: Bears hold control below key Fibo. and 200-hour SMAfxstreet.com
- 6What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026 Oddspredictionticker.com
- 7Commodities WTI Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 8Oil Only Has to Touch $90 Once This Month. We Think It Will. – Alpha Payoutsalphapayouts.com
- 9Oil Weekly Outlook: 9th–13th November 2026 | Ares Trading Labarestradinglab.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the WTI Oil price at 7:00 PM ET on November 13 is greater than $87.43, and resolves NO if it is less than or equal to $87.43. The key deadline for price observation and settlement is 7:00 PM ET on November 13. No special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned in the provided content.
Market Discussion
On November 13, 2026, a market for WTI Oil to reach $87.43 in a 15-minute window was priced at 91.5¢ for '$87.43 or above', resolving via Pyth WTI 1-minute candlestick close [1]. At the time, WTI was near $88.25, with technical analysis projecting a dip to $86.34 before a rally, and retail traders debating whether Iran-related news would push prices up or if a $3–4 drop was due, with some targeting $90 [2].
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score69Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What potential geopolitical headlines from the Middle East could act as a catalyst for WTI to break below the $87.00 support level on November 13?
| Primary Catalyst for WTI below $87 | Conclusive agreement on US–Israel–Iran ceasefire deal [1] |
|---|---|
| Brent price drop on ceasefire announcement | 16% intraday to ~$94.72–$95 [2] |
| Rystad Energy 2026 Brent forecast cut | From $97 to $87 [3] |
A conclusive Middle East ceasefire deal could drop WTI below $87. The most plausible geopolitical headline to act as a catalyst for WTI crude oil to break below the $87.00 support level on November 13, 2026, is a "conclusive agreement" finalizing the April 2026 US–Israel–Iran ceasefire deal [4]. This potential agreement would build on an earlier ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan in April 2026, which included Iran's 60-day guarantee of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. That initial de-escalation contributed to global oil prices falling to approximately $75 per barrel [1].
Past de-escalation events rapidly reduced crude oil's geopolitical premium. The initial announcement of the April 2026 ceasefire demonstrated this effect, as Brent crude prices fell by as much as 16% intraday, dropping from above $100 to approximately $94.72–$95 within hours [2]. This swift market reaction suggests that credible de-escalation can quickly remove a 10–16% geopolitical premium from crude oil. Following this significant event, Rystad Energy revised its 2026 average Brent forecast downwards from $97 to $87 [3]. Currently, WTI is trading just above the $87 support level, despite ongoing limited US–Iran strikes related to unauthorized transits [4].
Sources (4)
- 1Not just oil: Why the Strait of Hormuz has become a global battleground?israelhayom.com
- 2Oil and gas prices plunge after US and Iran agree to a ceasefire - Moneywebmoneyweb.co.za
- 3Ceasefire pulls oil off war highs, but physical markets need time to rebalancerystadenergy.com
- 4WTI Oil 15 min · $87.43 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
6. How does Barclays' bullish forecast for Q4 2026 reconcile with the bearish short-term pressure from the EIA's reported 4.7M barrel inventory build?
| Barclays Annual Brent Target | $100 [1] |
|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs Q4 2026 Brent Forecast | $90/bbl [1][2] |
| Projected Market Deficit Q2 2026 | 9.6M bpd [3][1] |
Major financial institutions predict significant crude oil price increases by Q4 2026. Barclays maintains a multi-month structural view, anticipating sustained Middle East supply losses and inventory scarcity to drive prices, targeting an annual Brent average of $100 [4][1][2]. Goldman Sachs similarly raised its Q4 2026 forecasts, projecting Brent at $90/bbl and WTI at $83/bbl. This outlook is attributed to substantial Middle East output losses of 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and a projected record global inventory draw of 11–12 million bpd in April 2026 [1][2]. The market is expected to undergo a dramatic shift from a 1.8 million bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 million bpd deficit in Q2 2026 [3][1].
Geopolitical risks significantly influence elevated long-term crude oil price expectations. Goldman Sachs models indicate Brent could reach $93 and WTI $89 in a 60-day Strait of Hormuz disruption scenario, suggesting risks are "skewed to the upside" [3][1]. Analysts estimate this geopolitical risk premium at $8–15 per barrel [2]. Following a simulated Strait of Hormuz closure, the EIA increased its annual Brent forecast to $96 (WTI $87.41) in March 2026, a notable rise from its previous $73.61 projection [2]. While these long-term forecasts are bullish, short-term intraday price movements, such as the $87.43 WTI settlement on November 13, 2026, are primarily influenced by minute-level market momentum and the immediate Hormuz risk premium, rather than quarterly bank predictions [4][1][2].
Sources (4)
- 1Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 oil forecasts. Mid East output loss drive big inventory drawinvestinglive.com
- 2WTI oil analysis: Breakout potential & price outlookinvestx.fr
- 3Goldman models Brent at $93 in 60-day Hormuz disruption scenariostreetinsider.com
- 4WTI Oil 15 min · $87.43 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
7. Based on the technical charts for November 13, what do indicators like the RSI and key moving averages suggest about the strength of the $87.00 support for WTI?
| Market Price Target Bias | 64% Yes for WTI Oil 15 min · $87.43 target [1] |
|---|---|
| WTI Trading Range | Mid-$87s on November 13, 2026 [1] |
| Brent Crude Trading Range | Above $90.99–$92.99 on November 13, 2026 [1] |
Specific technical indicators for WTI on November 13 were unavailable. Explicit RSI readings or moving-average values for WTI on the November 13, 2026 15-minute chart were not found in the available sources [1]. Consequently, a precise indicator-based assessment of the $87.00 support strength could not be verified [1].
Market sentiment offers an alternative assessment of WTI support. In the absence of concrete technical indicators, the public.com 'WTI Oil 15 min · $87.43 target' market price, which indicated a 64% 'Yes', served as the primary proxy [1]. This suggests a moderate bullish sentiment toward WTI holding above $87.43 [1]. On November 13, 2026, WTI was observed trading in the mid-$87s, positioning it near the critical $87.00 support level [1].
8. What statements or leaks related to the upcoming US-China summit could shift global oil demand forecasts and impact WTI trading sentiment on November 13?
| IEA 2026 Global Crude Demand Forecast Cut | 102.29 mbpd [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| WTI Futures Settlement (Nov 13, 2026) | $88.56/bbl [4][5] |
| US Weekly Crude Inventory Build | 4.7M bbl [1][2][3] |
No US-China summit news significantly impacted oil demand or WTI sentiment. On November 13, 2026, no US-China summit statement or leak was found that could shift global oil demand forecasts or impact WTI trading sentiment [6]. Such a shift would most directly occur from a summit statement easing trade or energy tariffs, especially given that Chinese seaborne crude imports had shown declines in previous months [6][7]. However, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly report, released on the same day, served as a major bearish driver for WTI by significantly cutting its 2026 global crude demand forecast to 102.29 million barrels per day (mbpd) and flipping its Q4 2026 outlook to an approximate 2 mbpd surplus [1][2][3].
Broader market dynamics showed a mix of bearish and bullish influences. Contributing to the bearish sentiment were additional data points, including an unexpected 4.7 million barrel weekly US crude inventory build, record US crude production reaching 14.013 mbpd, increased Saudi October output, and a high dollar index [1][2][3]. Counteracting these downward pressures, WTI found bullish support from escalating US-Iran tensions, highlighted by a US statement indicating no need for a deal with Iran, US Central Command shooting down IRGC attack drones, and a notable number of confirmed commercial-ship attacks in October [2]. Further support came from Aramco's smaller-than-expected $2 per barrel December Asian price cut [2].
WTI futures closed lower, despite some late-day bullish indications. WTI futures settled at $88.56 per barrel (bbl) on November 13, 2026, marking its second consecutive weekly decline [4][5]. Despite this, afternoon trading activity positioned WTI approximately $1.10 above the $87.43 prediction-market strike, suggesting expectations for WTI to remain in the high-$88s through the evening [4][5][8].
Sources (8)
- 1World oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover, IEA says By Reutersinvesting.com
- 2Crude Prices Supported by Concerns US-Iran War Will Lingerfinance.yahoo.com
- 3Dow Jones Top Energy Headlines at 11 AM ET: Global Oil Market Set to Return to Surplus as Gulf Exports Recover, IEA Says | Energy... | Morningstarmorningstar.com
- 4Oil prices post second straight weekly drop on signs of growing supply surpluscnbc.com
- 5Oil market positioning risks: surplus, shipping attacks, and spillover into rates and equities By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 6US-China Tariff Cuts Boost Oil Demand Outlookoilmarketcap.com
- 7Are Tanker Markets Mistaking Friction for Demand?shippingstrategy.substack.com
- 8WTI Oil 15 min · $87.43 target Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
9. What is the implied probability of WTI trading in the $87 range on November 13, according to related prediction markets on Polymarket and Robinhood?
| Exact $87.43 Target Market Found | No (Polymarket, Robinhood, Nov 13, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Implied Probability for $87.68 Target | ~25% (Robinhood, Nov 13, 2026) [2][3][1] |
| Odds of WTI Reaching $90 | 90% (Polymarket, Nov 2026) [4] |
A direct market for a WTI Oil 15-minute target of $87.43 resolving on November 13, 2026, between 6:45–7:00 PM EST was not identified on either Polymarket or Robinhood [1]. However, the implied probability for WTI trading in the $87 range during that specific timeframe can be estimated at approximately 25%. This approximation is based on a contemporaneous Robinhood market targeting $87.68 within a 15-minute window [2][3][1].
A Robinhood market suggested a 25% chance for WTI to reach $87.68. Specifically, the Robinhood live 15-minute WTI market for November 13, 2026 (covering a 4:15–4:30 PM EST window) indicated a 25% implied probability for WTI reaching '$87.68 or above', with a trading volume of approximately $12,626 [2]. This suggests WTI was trading around $87.6–$87.7 on that day, and the market assigned a one-quarter chance for the price to meet or exceed the $87.68 target by the window's close [2]. Further insights from related November 13, 2026 daily WTI range markets showed price buckets such as $86.00–$86.99, $88.00–$88.99, and $89.00–$89.99, indicating WTI was generally hovering in the high-$80s [1][4].
Broader markets indicated WTI was expected to reach $90 in November. A Polymarket for 'What will WTI hit in November 2026?' showed a 90% probability of WTI reaching $90 [4]. Additionally, the closest indexed market with an identical $87.43 target, found on Public.com for November 9, 2026, was trading 'Yes' at 64¢, translating to a 64–66% implied probability [1].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
WTI futures settled Thursday Nov 12 at $88.56 (-0.20%), with Brent at $95.84 [1]. On Friday Nov 13, WTI fell ~1.2% to session lows below $87.00 before stabilizing near $87.43–$87.50 in the late afternoon [1][2][3]. The Robinhood/Kalshi-style 15-min WTI market resolves Yes if the Pyth WTI 1-minute candle close at 7:00 PM EST reaches or exceeds the $87.43 target [4]. Prediction markets indicated WTI was hovering just above the target, with the 5:15–5:30 PM window at $87.43 trading at 91.5¢ and the 5:45–6:00 PM window at $87.51 trading at 68¢ [4][5]. Technical levels show support at the 100-day SMA $87.00 and $82.30, with resistance between $87.50–$88.00 (23.6% Fib at $88.04), $89.18, and $90.00 [3][6][7]. A settle above $87.50–$88.00 opens $90, while a break below $87.50 targets $85.00 [3][6]. Kalshi's WTI 15-minute series is the #2 most-traded commodity market by 7-day volume ($63.5M) [8].
Bearish drivers include the EIA weekly report (Nov 12, week ending Nov 6) showing crude inventories increased +4.7M barrels to 414.4M, against an expected 1M draw [9]. The IEA's Nov 13 report forecast a Q4 2026 global surplus of 1.7M bpd (supply 105M bpd vs demand) and a 2026 demand reduction of 2.7M bpd to 102.3M bpd [10]. OPEC+ October output rose by 2.04M bpd from September, reaching 41.23M bpd [1]. Additionally, a Fed December 25bp hike is fully priced, with ~13% odds of a 50bp hike, which could cap US oil consumption [11][2]. Conversely, bullish factors include Iran's IRGC Navy claiming 4+ oil tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz [7][12] and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline pumping station, Yanbu facility, and an Aramco building in Riyadh [6][7]. Verisk Maplecroft reported 36 confirmed commercial ship attacks in October, the most since the war began [12]. Geopolitical tensions intensified with Trump's 'We don't need a deal with Iran' remark, ending back-channel diplomacy, and Netanyahu's push to resume attacks [1][6].
A critical timing risk for the 6:45–7:00 PM window involves the US October PPI release, scheduled for exactly 7:00 PM EST, which aligns with the market's resolution timestamp [11][4]. The headline forecast is 0.4% m/m, with core PPI at 0.3% m/m [11]. A stronger-than-expected PPI print could push yields and the dollar higher, potentially lowering oil prices into the close, while a weaker print could have the opposite effect [11]. FOMC member Collins is scheduled to speak at 7:40 PM EST, after the resolution [11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 21, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (12)
- 1Oil prices post second straight weekly drop on signs of growing supply surpluscnbc.com
- 2Why are Oil prices pulling back if US-Iran peace talks seem dead?fxstreet.com
- 3Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Moves Away From Session Highs | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 4November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 5:15–5:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 5November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 5:45–6:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6WTI Forecast: Bears hold control below key Fibo. and 200-hour SMAfxstreet.com
- 7WTI tumbles to near $87.50 as US inventories jump, geopolitical risks in focusfxstreet.com
- 8Commodity Prediction Markets — Oil & Gold Odds | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com
- 9Oil Prices Rebound as Middle East Risks Offset U.S. Inventory Builds | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 10World oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover, IEA says By Reutersinvesting.com
- 11Commodity Evening Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market Ltd.globecapital.com
- 12Oil market positioning risks: surplus, shipping attacks, and spillover into rates and equities By Investing.cominvesting.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131845-45: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131830-30: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131815-15: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131800-00: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131745-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
