Short Answer

The market expects WTI Oil to reach its $87.46 target price between 6:30 PM and 6:45 PM EST on November 13. Traders price this outcome at 64.0%, awaiting immediate price action.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • WTI target $87.46 reflects market balance between demand cuts and geopolitical risk.
  • WTI target $87.46 faces bearish pressure from a 4.7M bbl crude inventory build.
  • FXStreet shows WTI target $87.46 near short-term resistance in high-$80s.

Current Context

WTI Crude is positioned near its $87.46 target for the imminent settlement. The specific market for November 13, 2026, resolves if Pyth-verified WTI is at or above $87.46 at the 6:45 PM EST 1-minute candle close, with settlement rounded to two decimals [1]. As of 3:09 PM ET on November 13, WTI was trading at $87.46, reflecting a 0.60% decline over 24 hours within a $86.77–$88.48 range [2]. The price had fallen 0.86% from its 9:30 AM open of $88.22, accompanied by $6.4 million in net selling within large orders and a 19.6% reduction in open interest over 24 hours [2]. By 5:39 PM EST, January 2027 WTI futures (CL.2) were $87.61, indicating the price hovered just above the target in the late session [3]. WTI posted its second consecutive weekly decline, down approximately 2.5% for the current week after a 13% drop the prior week [4]. TMGM's Guillermo Alcala observed WTI easing 1.2% Friday, capped at $88.20 [5].
Bearish drivers include rising US inventories and technical indicators. US crude inventories rose by 4.657–4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million for the week ending November 6, against expectations of a 1.1 million barrel drawdown [5]. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 2.6 million barrels to 279.5 million, while US crude production reached a record 14.013 million barrels per day [6]. FXStreet's Haresh Menghani flagged a near-term bearish bias, noting WTI traded below the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $88.04 and the 200-hour Simple Moving Average at $89.18, with an RSI of 60.75 [7]. Resistance levels are identified at $91.11 and $93.60, with key support at the $83.06 cycle low [7]. Trading between $87.00 and $88.04 keeps crude in a downside-skewed range [7]. Barchart/EdgeClear identified the $85 area, confluent with the yearly Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), as a critical level; a break below this risks further downside [8]. WTI had fallen approximately 15% over three sessions following the November 3 midterms, marking its steepest drop since November 2021 [8]. Saudi October output rose 970,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.2 million bpd, and overall OPEC output increased 930,000 bpd to an eight-month high of 22.8 million bpd [9]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2026 demand forecast to 102.29 million bpd and projects a roughly 2 million bpd surplus this quarter [9]. Additionally, bets on a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, potentially a half-point December rate hike, are capping US oil demand [5].
Geopolitical tensions offer some counterbalancing price support. US Central Command shot down two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) drones targeting a US base in Bahrain, while Verisk Maplecroft reported 36 confirmed commercial vessel attacks in October, the highest since the Iran war began [9]. Hormuz crude shipments averaged 2.8 million barrels per day in November, down from 3.4 million barrels per day in late October, and Houthi groups claimed attacks on Saudi infrastructure [6]. Trump's stance on maintaining the Iran blockade also offers geopolitical support [4]. Key upcoming dates include the OPEC+ meeting on November 29, 2026, to determine 2027 production policy, and a US-China summit the week after November 13 [6]. Prediction markets show varying sentiment: Polymarket indicates an 82% chance of WTI hitting $90 in November 2026 and 75% for $85 [10]. A daily WTI market on November 13 showed 30% odds for WTI between $88.00 and $88.99, and 15% for $90.00 to $90.99 [11]. A 15-minute WTI market targeting $87.68 traded at 25% probability with approximately $15,000 volume [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 4:45–5:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Oil price today: WTI crude live in ET · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
  3. 3@CL.2: WTI Crude (Jan'27) - Stock Price, Quote and News - CNBCcnbc.com
  4. 4Oil prices post second straight weekly drop on signs of growing supply surpluscnbc.com
  5. 5WTI Oil trims gains and eases below $87 amid bets of a steeper Fed tightening cycletmgm.com
  6. 6Crude Dips as Status Quo Signals Offset Regional Supply Risks; Gas Inches Down ahead of Storage Reportaegis-hedging.com
  7. 7WTI Forecast: Bears hold control below key Fibo. and 200-hour SMAfxstreet.com
  8. 8Crude Oil Sits on a Make or Break Level as Iran Talks Stall: Will Buyers Defend 85?barchart.com
  9. 9Crude Prices Supported by Concerns US-Iran War Will Lingerfinance.yahoo.com
  10. 10Commoditiespolymarket.com
  11. 11Commodities | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  12. 1215 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the WTI oil price is above $87.46 at 6:45 PM ET on November 13, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to NO if the WTI oil price is $87.46 or below at that time. No special settlement conditions are specified in the provided content.

Market Discussion

The prediction market for WTI Oil targeting $87.46 between 4:45–5:00 AM EST on Nov 13, 2026, was priced at 0.1¢ for 'at or above $87.46' [1]. WTI spot on Nov 13, 2026, traded in a range of $87.77–$89.66 and closed at $88.96 [2], placing the $87.46 target well below the day's low and making the 'above $87.46' outcome near-certain for most of the day [1][2]. Trader discussions on Nov 13, 2026, reflected specific trade plans, warnings about Friday risk, and speculation regarding potential geopolitical developments from Iran over the weekend [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 4:45–5:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Crude Oil WTI Spot / US Dollartwelvedata.com
  3. 3Crude Oil WTI Futures Forum - Investing.cominvesting.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 71 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score17Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score71Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

5. What impact could the Nov. 13 EIA natural gas report and late-session algorithmic trading have on WTI price volatility around the $87.46 strike price?

EIA Report Price ImpactLargely decays by 6:30-6:45 PM EST resolution window [1]
Late-Session WTI TradingDominated by algorithmic and market-making flow with thin order books [2][3]
WTI Strike Price OutcomeNear coin flip around $87.46 on Nov 13, 2026 [2][1]
The EIA natural gas report's direct WTI impact will largely decay. The EIA weekly natural gas storage report, scheduled for release at 10:30 AM ET on November 13, 2026, is anticipated to have a largely decayed direct price impact on WTI by the 6:30 PM EST to 6:45 PM EST resolution window [1]. Any residual effect on WTI would primarily be second-order, influencing broader energy-complex sentiment and gas-crude substitution flows rather than direct price movements [1].
Late-session WTI futures trading is driven by algorithms. Late-session WTI futures trading, especially after 4 PM ET, is characterized by algorithmic and market-making flow operating within thin order books [2][3]. This environment means that even a modest price movement of just a few ticks in the final 15 minutes can critically determine the outcome around key strike prices, such as $87.46 [2][3].
WTI's position near $87.46 created high uncertainty. On November 13, 2026, WTI was trading closely around $87.46–87.49, with the $87.46 strike positioned just below the spot price, leading to high short-horizon uncertainty where the outcome was nearly a coin flip [2][1]. Historically, these 15-minute WTI markets resolve with implied probabilities ranging from 53–90% and are known for low liquidity, making outcomes close to random at the strike price and easily allowing a modest pullback to be reversed by late-session algorithmic activity [2][3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Commodities Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  2. 215 min Commodities Combos | Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3WTI Oil 15 min · $90.09 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Brent crude oil price on Nov 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com

6. How does the latest EIA report of a 4.7 million barrel crude inventory build confirm the near-term bearish pressure on WTI prices?

Largest 2026 EIA Build17.4M barrels (week ended Aug 7, 2026) [1][2]
Historical WTI Drop (Nov 2023)4.5% drop after 8.7M barrel build [3][4]
Historical WTI Drop (Sept 2015)3% slip after 4.7M barrel build [5]
The premise of a 4.7 million barrel crude inventory build lacks direct verification from available sources [1][2][6]. A 4.7 million barrel figure was reported on July 15, 2026, but it indicated a draw, not a build [6]. Verified U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for 2026 includes a 17.4 million-barrel build for the week ending August 7, 2026, and a 2.5 million-barrel build for the week ending July 31, 2026 [1][2].
Historically, larger-than-expected crude inventory builds typically lead to immediate bearish price reactions for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude [1][3][4][5]. Such builds indicate that supply is outpacing demand. For instance, in November 2023, an 8.7 million-barrel build coincided with a 4.5% drop in WTI prices [3][4]. Similarly, a 4.7 million-barrel build in September 2015 resulted in WTI slipping more than 3% [5]. Persistent reporting of significant builds would confirm a bearish market outlook [1].
However, several factors can mitigate the bearish pressure from inventory builds on WTI prices. These include declining gasoline stocks, a shrinking Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in August 2026, and market participants occasionally prioritizing other geopolitical headlines [1]. Furthermore, commercial crude stocks in July 2026 remained below the five-year seasonal average, suggesting that an inventory build from an already depleted base might have a less bearish impact than usual [2]. For short-term market movements, macroeconomic factors may also be less influential than immediate order flow [7][8][2].
Sources (8)
  1. 1U.S. crude inventories rise by most in 3.5 years as exports slump | Reutersreuters.com
  2. 2EIA Crude Oil Inventory Build July 31, 2026 - Weekly Analysiskingdomexploration.com
  3. 3US crude inventories rise as exports fall, the EIA saysreuters.com
  4. 4US crude stockpiles jump, distillates draw down to 18-mth low - EIA | Reutersreuters.com
  5. 5US Crude Oil Inventories, September 2 - Business Insiderbusinessinsider.com
  6. 6Brent Flips to Backwardation at $84.77 as EIA Data Shows...oilauthority.com
  7. 715 min Commodities Combos | Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8Commodities Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com

7. How do the bearish fundamentals from IEA demand cuts compare against the bullish geopolitical risk premium from recent Middle East conflicts?

IEA 2026 Demand Forecast Cut510 kb/d [1][2][3]
2026 Global Supply Fall (Hormuz)4.3 mb/d [1]
Nov 13, 2026 WTI Price Prediction$87.46–87.68 [4][5][6]
Oil market dynamics are influenced by conflicting bearish and bullish factors. Bearish fundamental demand cuts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) contend with bullish geopolitical risk premiums arising from Middle East conflicts [1]. Live prediction markets indicate that geopolitical supply risk is currently perceived as dominant over demand weakness [4][5][6].
The IEA significantly cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast. The IEA's August 2026 Oil Market Report reduced the forecast by 510 kb/d, predicting a 1.6 mb/d year-over-year decline to 103.288 mb/d [1][2][3]. This demand reduction is primarily attributed to the Middle East conflict, specifically the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure has shut in 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output, causing global supply to fall by 4.3 mb/d in 2026 to 102 mb/d, and creating a projected 1.8 mb/d deficit in Q3 2026 [1].
Despite demand collapse, oil prices have remained elevated due to geopolitical risk. North Sea Dated prices reached $96.80/bbl in July and currently trade around $92, reflecting this premium [1][2]. Prediction markets for November 13, 2026, show West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at approximately $87.46–87.68, and Brent crude above $88.99 at 96% probability, indicating the market prices geopolitical supply risk as dominant [4][5][6]. The IEA anticipates demand growth to resume by November 2026 and supply to rebound by 8.3 mb/d in 2027 once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, suggesting a fading of bearish demand cuts. However, the geopolitical premium is projected to persist until a reopening agreement is secured [1][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Oil Market Report - August 2026oilmonster.com
  2. 2IEA downgrades global oil demand forecast, expects 1.6 mln bpd decline in 2026 - Business & Economy - TASStass.com
  3. 3IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast by 510,000 Barrels per Day ABC.AZabc.az
  4. 4Commodities Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  5. 515 min Commodities Combos | Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6Brent crude oil price on Nov 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com

8. What does the 19.6% decline in WTI futures' open interest, combined with Polymarket odds, reveal about trader conviction for the Nov. 13 session?

WTI futures open-interest decline19.6% (Nov. 13, 2026, unconfirmed) [1][2]
Kalshi WTI 15-min target & odds$87.68 with 59% vs 42% odds (Nov. 13, 2026) [1]
Public.com WTI 15-min volume~$107,706 (Nov. 13, 2026, 5 PM EST) [2]
The reported 19.6% decline in WTI futures open interest for November 13, 2026, was not independently confirmed and is considered an unverified input [1][2]. Coupled with near-even 15-minute odds observed in analogous markets, this suggests low trader conviction for the session, pointing towards hedging or de-risking strategies [1][2]. The specific Polymarket market for WTI Oil targeting $87.46 on November 13, 6:30–6:45 PM EST, was not directly found [1][2].
Similar markets provided critical context for WTI's trading behavior. A live Kalshi 15-minute WTI market on the same day showed a $87.68 target with 59% versus 42% odds, indicating WTI was trading near $87.5 with only modest bullish sentiment [1]. Furthermore, Public.com's 15-minute WTI market at 5 PM EST, targeting $87.49, recorded approximately $107,706 in volume, with 90% skewed to one side, which underscored active short-horizon trading around the ~$87.5 price level [2].
The interpretation of the ~19.6% open-interest decline and the near-even 15-minute odds indicates that traders were primarily closing or reducing positions rather than increasing directional conviction [1][2]. This behavior implies low directional certainty, an inclination towards hedging or de-risking strategies, and an expectation for WTI to remain range-bound around $87.5 during the 6:30–6:45 PM EST resolution window [1][2]. Moreover, a comparison with Brent prices on November 10 and November 13, which resolved and traded significantly above $87, suggested WTI at ~$87.46 was positioned at the lower end of the prevailing price range, signaling a mildly bearish-to-neutral market tape [2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 115 min Commodities Combos | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Commodities Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  3. 3Brent crude oil price on Nov 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com

9. How do short-term technical indicators from FXStreet signaling resistance at $88.04 contrast with Barchart's long-term support level near the $85 yearly VWAP?

FXStreet Short-term Resistance$88.18, $88.45-$88.50 [1][2]
Barchart Long-term Supportnear $85 (yearly VWAP, prior 52-week high) [3][4]
WTI Current Trading Range$87.4-$87.7 (Nov 13, 2026) [5][6][7][8]
FXStreet identifies consistent short-term resistance levels in the high-$80s. Analyses from FXStreet have consistently indicated short-term resistance for WTI in the high-$80s, specifically noting $88.18 and the $88.45-$88.50 range [1][2]. The upper Bollinger band at $88.18, for instance, was flagged as immediate resistance on August 21, 2026 [1]. On November 13, 2026, WTI's price eased 1.2% below $87.00, holding just above its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $87.00, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.6 suggesting mild bearish momentum [9].
Barchart indicates a long-term support cluster around the $85 mark. In contrast to the short-term resistance, Barchart identifies a long-term support cluster for WTI centered near $85, with specific levels noted at 86.090, 85.120, and 84.415 [3]. This support is reinforced by its alignment with the yearly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and a prior 52-week high of $85.32 for the Dec '26 contract on May 18, 2026 [3][4]. Broader prediction markets also lend credence to this thesis, suggesting $85 as a plausible year-end floor [8].
WTI currently trades between these short-term resistance and long-term support levels. As of November 13, 2026, WTI is trading within the $87.4-$87.7 range [5][6][7][8]. This current price positions WTI between FXStreet's identified short-term resistance in the high-$80s and Barchart's long-term support cluster around $85 [1][2][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1WTI steadies near $86.00 as Iran sanctions threat offsets US inventory buildfxstreet.com
  2. 2WTI US Oil Price Forecast: Rises to near $88.50 as Kuwait under attack, uptrend remains intactfxstreet.com
  3. 3Crude Oil WTI Mini Oct '26 Futures Price - Barchart.combarchart.com
  4. 4Crude Oil WTI F Dec '26 Futures Price - Barchart.combarchart.com
  5. 515 min Commodities Combos | Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6Commodities Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  7. 7WTI Oil 15 min · $90.09 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Brent crude oil price on Nov 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  9. 9Oil Forecast, News and Analysis (WTI)fxstreet.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Recent EIA data for the week ending Nov 6, released Thursday Nov 12, showed US crude inventories increased by 4.7M bbl to 414.4M bbl, against an expected 1.1M bbl draw [1][2]. US crude production hit a record 14.013 mbpd, and the Baker Hughes rig count rose to a 1.5-year high of 463 rigs [2]. The IEA's Nov 13 monthly report projected a Q4 2026 supply of 105 mbpd against demand of 102.3 mbpd, indicating a surplus of ~1.7–2.0 mbpd, the first since the war began [3][2]. The 2026 demand forecast was cut by 90k bpd to 102.29 mbpd [3]. OPEC+ pumped 41.23 mbpd in October, up 2.04 mbpd m/m and 97% of pre-war February volume [3].
Geopolitical risks persist, with the US-Iran war in its ninth month; Trump stated a deal with Iran is not necessary and will maintain the blockade [1][2]. Verisk Maplecroft reported 36 confirmed commercial ship attacks in October, the highest since the war began [2][4]. Four tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday [1][2]. Houthis attacked the Saudi East-West pipeline pumping station, the Yanbu facility, and an Aramco building in Riyadh [2]. The US shot down two IRGC drones near a Bahrain base [2]. A macroeconomic headwind is building as recent CPI data and Fed official comments drive speculation of a half-point rate hike in December [5][2]. The dollar index (DXY) hit a 1.5-year high, capping crude gains [5][2]. WTI perps registered a net -$6.4M from large orders ($11.2M sold vs $4.8M bought), with open interest falling 19.6% in 24 hours [6].
Upcoming catalysts include API inventories on Tue Nov 17 at 4:30 PM ET, the EIA weekly report (week ending Nov 13) on Wed Nov 18 at 10:30 AM ET, and the FOMC decision also on Wed Nov 18 [7][8][9]. The Robinhood 15-min market settles on the Pyth WTI 1-minute candle close at the end of the 6:30–6:45 PM EST window, rounded to 2 decimals [10]. WTI spot was $87.46 at 3:09 PM ET, with the target sitting at this current price level, and the session trending down 0.86% since the 9:30 AM open [6]. Technical resistance is at $88.04 (23.6% Fib) and $89.18 (200-hour SMA), while support lies at $87.00 and the $83.06 cycle low [11][8]. WTI trading above $87.00 but below $88.04 maintains a downside-skewed consolidation [11][8]. MarlinFx's composite score is -20, indicating a moderately bearish outlook [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 13, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 13, 2026
Sources (11)
  1. 1Oil prices set for second weekly decline as Trump to stay with Iran blockade | livelive.euronext.com
  2. 2Crude Prices Supported by Concerns US-Iran War Will Lingerfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3World oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover, IEA says By Reutersinvesting.com
  4. 4Oil market positioning risks: surplus, shipping attacks, and spillover into rates and equities By Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5Why are Oil prices pulling back if US-Iran peace talks seem dead?fxstreet.com
  6. 6Oil price today: WTI crude live in ET · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
  7. 7Energy Calendar | Oil Price Liveoilpricelive.com
  8. 8WTI Intelligence: Market Regime, MarlinFx Score, 15 Factorsmarlinfx.com
  9. 9Houston Energy Market Calendar | Houston Energy Workshoustonenergyworks.com
  10. 10November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 4:45–5:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  11. 11WTI Forecast: Bears hold control below key Fibo. and 200-hour SMAfxstreet.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXWTI15M-26NOV131830-30: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXWTI15M-26NOV131815-15: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXWTI15M-26NOV131800-00: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXWTI15M-26NOV131745-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXWTI15M-26NOV131730-30: NO (Nov 13, 2026)