WTI Oil 15 min · $87.52 target
Short Answer
WTI Oil reaching $87.52 between 7:15PM EST and 7:30PM EST on November 13 is a genuine toss-up. The market prices a 54% probability of WTI touching the $87.52 target during this 15-minute window.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- Target Price $87.52 appears likely as OPEC+ maintained December 2026 production targets.
- WTI firmness on November 13 was due to broader risks, despite large inventory build.
- Bullish risk from Houthi attacks offsets bearish sentiment from potential US-Iran talks.
Current Context
WTI settled above its target, facing a second weekly decline. WTI (Z6) settled November 13, 2026 at $88.56 per barrel, down $0.18, trading in a narrow $87.80–$89.64 range [1]. This settlement was above the $87.52 target for the 15-minute prediction market [2]. Brent (F7) settled at $95.84, up $0.02 [1]. WTI was set for a weekly decline of approximately 2.5%, following a 13% drop in the prior week [3]. The 15-minute WTI prediction market for November 13, 2026 resolves 'at or above $87.52' using Pyth WTI 1-minute candle closes, rounded to two decimals [2]. This market trades 24/7, excluding Thursday 3–5 AM ET, and pays $1 per correct contract, typically within one hour of resolution [2]. Nearby evening windows for November 13 had targets of $87.51 (5:45–6:00 PM, 68¢) and $87.43 (6:45–7:00 PM, 73¢) [4][5]. US crude inventories rose, reversing a six-week trend [3][6]. EIA data for the week ending November 6 showed a 4.7 million barrel increase to 414.4 million barrels, against an expected 1.1 million barrel draw [3][6]. API had estimated a 9.0 million barrel build, a roughly 10 million barrel surprise, with Cushing stocks gaining 182,000 barrels [3][6].
Geopolitical tensions and upcoming OPEC+ meeting frame the market. On November 13, geopolitical drivers included statements from Trump on Truth Social about maintaining the Iran blockade and sanctions, alongside claims by Iran's military of four tankers hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz [3][1]. Houthi attacks targeted a Saudi East-West pipeline pumping station, a Yanbu facility, and an Aramco building in Riyadh [3][1]. Mossad's director was in Washington Friday with Netanyahu, pressing Trump to resume the war [3][1]. Key upcoming dates include the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 29, 2026, to determine January output [6][7]. Extending the 2 million bpd cuts could trigger a rally towards $94.70, while restoring output could move prices toward $80 [6]. December WTI expires November 20, and the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is due December 8, 2026 [7][8][9]. The November 10 EIA STEO projects Brent near $100 per barrel through the rest of 2026, falling to a $77 average in Q4 2027, with US production reaching a record 14.3 million bpd in 2027 [6][8][9]. Expert views vary: MiTrade's Chris Brankin described the market as 'priced to perfection,' lacking conviction in bounces [3][6]. TradingNews presented a three-path forecast: bearish below $85.25 toward $82/$80, a base range of $85.29–$88.71, and bullish above $88.71 targeting a $94.70 50% retracement [6]. The Baker Hughes oil rig count remained unchanged at 463, with the total down three to 601 [3][1].
Prediction markets show varying probabilities across price ranges. Cross-checks across prediction markets indicate mixed sentiment for future WTI prices [10][11][12]. On November 13, a daily WTI market priced the $88.00–$88.99 band at 94% and 'above $78.49' at 99% [10]. Kalshi's November 13 range market showed $86.00–$86.99 at 19% and $87.00–$87.99 at 12% [11]. Polymarket priced WTI hitting $90 in November at 84% and $85 at 72%, with $2 million in volume [12]. Energy prediction orders are routed to external exchanges, including KalshiEX, ForecastEX, and Rothera, incurring commissions of up to $0.01 plus a $0.01 per-side exchange fee [10][13].
Sources (13)
- 1CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.18 LOWER AT USD 88.56/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLES USD 0.02 HIGHER AT USD 95.84/BBL | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
- 2November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 3:00–3:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3Oil prices set for second weekly decline as Trump to stay with Iran blockade | livelive.euronext.com
- 4November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 5:45–6:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 5November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 6:45–7:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6Oil Price Forecast — WTI ($86.88) $94 & Brent ($91) $100 Upside Targets on Stalled Iran Talkstradingnews.com
- 7Oil Weekly Outlook: 9th–13th November 2026 | Ares Trading Labarestradinglab.com
- 8Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)eia.gov
- 9Oil's week brings three monthly outlooks, starting with the EIA on Tuesday · WiseWallet Insightswisewallet.eu
- 10Economics Energy Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 11Oil Price (WTI) tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 12Commodities Prediction Markets & Live Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 13Oil Prediction Markets: Odds and Guidemarketss.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the WTI oil price at 7:30 PM ET on November 13, 2026. A "YES" resolution occurs if the WTI oil price at that time is greater than $87.52. Conversely, a "NO" resolution occurs if the price is less than or equal to $87.52.
Market Discussion
The "WTI Oil 15 min · $87.52 target" market is highly active, with a similar live target of $87.42 currently priced at 83% Above/17% Below [1], though a previous $87.52 target market resolved "No" at 39% on November 9, 2026 [2]. While the current WTI spot is around $88.58, positioning the $87.52 target below it [3], trader sentiment shows expectations of a Monday gap down, alongside some targeting higher prices and citing potential weekend catalysts such as Iran drone attacks [3].
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score5Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score69Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What signals from key OPEC+ nations ahead of the November 29 meeting are shaping expectations for 2027 production quotas?
| Saudi Arabia October 2026 production | 10.56 million bpd (up 26% from September) [1] |
|---|---|
| OPEC+ September 2026 output vs. target | 5.42 million bpd below target [2] |
| WTI price November 13 | Mid-$80s [2] |
Key OPEC+ nations deferred 2027 quotas, keeping December 2026 production targets steady. At their November 1, 2026 meeting, key OPEC+ nations postponed decisions regarding 2027 production quotas, instead choosing to maintain December 2026 production targets without alteration [3][4][5]. The upcoming November 29 meeting is anticipated to be critical for these future quota determinations [1].
Saudi Arabia advocates an independent capacity audit for 2027 production quotas. Saudi Arabia is pushing for an independent capacity audit to serve as the foundation for each country's 2027 quota [1]. This framework, based on Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC), was initially approved on November 30, 2025, with audit figures expected by mid-November [6][7][8]. With an approximate capacity of 12 million bpd and 2 million bpd of spare capacity, Saudi Arabia aims to use this audit system to eliminate traditional quota bargaining. Analysts suggest the audit will likely reveal limited spare capacity in other nations, thereby positioning Saudi Arabia as the pivotal swing producer for 2027 allocations [1][6][4].
Market volatility and output discrepancies complicate setting future production baselines. The market is currently experiencing a "war-premium," with WTI trading in the mid-$80s by November 13, amidst uncertainties stemming from a potential US-Iran conflict and the impending expiration of approximately 2 million bpd of production cuts at the end of 2026 [3][2][5]. Furthermore, significant discrepancies, such as OPEC+ output being 5.42 million bpd below target in September 2026, have created contention in establishing 2027 baselines due to the divergence between allocated quotas and actual delivered barrels [2].
Sources (8)
- 1What’s next for OPEC+ oil quotas as Saudi Arabia ramps up output? - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012al-monitor.com
- 2OPEC+ Meeting November 29: What to Expect (2026)warbrief.live
- 3OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027finance.yahoo.com
- 4OPEC+ Holds December Oil Output Targets Steady, Leaving 2027 Quotas for a Nov. 29 Meeting - iShook Financeishookfinance.com
- 5OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets unchangedglobalenergyreport.com
- 6New OPEC Plan Sets Off a Global Race for Spare Capacity | OilPrice.comoilprice.com
- 7OPEC+ keeps output increase on hold, approves new quota system | Oil & Gas Journalogj.com
- 8Opec+ agrees mechanism to set new production baselines | Latest Market Newsargusmedia.com
6. Why did WTI futures remain firm on November 13 despite the EIA reporting a 4.7 million barrel inventory build, far exceeding expectations?
| EIA build reported on Nov 13, 2026 | 4.7 million barrels [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| IEA forecast 2026 global oil supply fall | 4.3M bpd [3] |
| IEA forecast 2026 global oil demand fall | 1.6M bpd [3] |
Specific intraday drivers for WTI firmness remain undocumented, but broader risks are key. The specific intraday factors driving WTI firmness on November 13, 2026, despite the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting a 4.7 million barrel inventory build that exceeded expectations, are not explicitly documented in the available sources [1][2][3]. However, this firmness is generally attributed to the prevailing 2026 supply-risk environment, characterized by a structural supply-tight backdrop that supports WTI prices even amidst inventory builds [3].
Geopolitical risks and supply concerns underpin WTI stability. This broader context includes an August 2026 forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting a significant decrease in global oil supply by 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd), alongside a projected demand decrease of 1.6 million bpd [3]. Furthermore, a prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait exacerbated the situation by reducing Gulf oil transport to 15 million bpd [3]. Geopolitical supply risks are recognized as factors capable of counteracting bearish inventory data [2][3]. An illustrative example from August 2026 shows WTI falling 2.43% to $81.25 after a substantial EIA build, yet its decline was ultimately capped by a Houthi drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery [2][3].
7. How do the EIA's November STEO projections for Q4 2026 oil prices compare to recent forecasts from major investment banks like Goldman Sachs?
| EIA Sept 2026 STEO Brent Spot | ~$91/bbl (end-2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| EIA Oct 22, 2026 STEO Brent Average | $57.69/bbl (2026) [2] |
| EIA Aug 2026 STEO WTI Average | $80.88/bbl (2026) [3] |
No direct comparison can be made to EIA's November Q4 2026 oil price projections. The provided information does not include projections from EIA's November STEO for Q4 2026 oil prices or recent forecasts from major investment banks like Goldman Sachs. Therefore, a direct comparison as requested cannot be performed. However, the available data offers insights from other EIA STEO releases for 2026 oil prices, revealing significant variations in forecasts [1].
Earlier EIA forecasts projected significantly higher oil prices for 2026. The EIA's September 2026 STEO projected Brent spot prices at approximately $91/bbl and WTI at around $84.65/bbl by the end of 2026. These figures were attributed to about 400 million barrels of inventory drawdowns and Middle East export disruptions [1]. Similarly, the EIA's August 2026 STEO estimated full-year 2026 averages of $86.81/bbl for Brent and $80.88/bbl for WTI, with expectations for prices to decline in 2027 as Middle East production recovers [3].
Subsequent EIA projections revised 2026 oil price forecasts sharply lower. An EIA STEO released on October 22, 2026, presented a sharply different outlook, raising 2026 average forecasts to $57.69/bbl for Brent and $53.42/bbl for WTI [2]. This report projected 2026 prices to be approximately 18% below 2025 levels, citing production exceeding demand with 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in inventory builds [2]. These contrasting figures indicate major revisions between different EIA STEO releases, highlighting a fluctuating market perspective [2]. Complementing this, a Kalshi market 'WTI Oil 15 min $87.52 target' on November 9, 2026, resolved 'No' at 39% implied probability [4].
8. What real-time shipping data from sources like MarineTraffic is available to corroborate reports of tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz on November 12-13?
| Tankers with AIS off (since July 7) | 86% (72 of 84) [1] |
|---|---|
| Vessel transits in Strait of Hormuz (Nov 12, 2026) | 10 (6 inbound, 4 outbound) [2] |
| Vessels running dark on Nov 12, 2026 | 8 of 10 [2] |
Real-time shipping data is unreliable for corroborating incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Sources like MarineTraffic provide indicative rather than precisely real-time vessel positions, with refresh delays ranging from minutes to hours, depending on vessel class and AIS coverage [1][3]. AIS data in this region is significantly compromised; 86% (72 of 84) of crude-laden tankers transiting since July 7 have sailed with their AIS switched off [1]. GPS spoofing is also a persistent issue corrupting position data, as demonstrated by incidents involving tankers like FUJAIRAH ENERGY and KAZIMAH III, which spoofed AIS positions before being struck [4]. This means the absence of an AIS signal does not disprove an incident, while present AIS positions can be falsified [4].
November 12-13 data showed high 'dark traffic' and no verified incidents. On November 12, only 10 vessel transits were recorded in the Strait of Hormuz, with 8 of these operating without AIS, marking the highest level of 'dark traffic' since late September [2]. Global Energy Flow's (GEF) AIS frames for November 12 similarly showed minimal, mostly dark traffic, and did not identify any burning or disabled tankers via AIS [1][2]. Although the IRGC claimed an LNG tanker hit a mine and two tankers burned on November 12, these claims remain unverified, and no AIS-confirmed burning tanker was identified [1][2]. Experts explicitly warn that live map data should be considered 'evidence, not truth,' and in corridors with heavy dark vessel traffic like Hormuz, the absence of a signal itself serves as a critical indicator [1].
9. How are intraday traders on November 13 weighing bearish sentiment from potential US-Iran talks against bullish risk from Houthi attacks?
| Brent Price Drop (Ceasefire) | 96 cents (1.1%) to $88.26 [1] |
|---|---|
| WTI Price Drop (Ceasefire) | 73 cents (0.9%) to $82.50 [1] |
| Potential Oil Price Surge (Blockade) | Above $115-120/bbl [1] |
Diplomatic efforts typically introduce bearish sentiment for oil prices. Intraday traders on November 13 are navigating conflicting market signals from open diplomacy and ongoing violence [2]. The prospect of US-Iran talks historically tends to ease oil prices, with past ceasefire proposals demonstrating this effect. For instance, when mediators proposed a 10-day US-Iran ceasefire, Brent crude dropped 96 cents (1.1%) to $88.26, and WTI fell 73 cents (0.9%) to $82.50 [1]. Similar hopes for peace talks near $89 per barrel and announcements of Iranian state talks with Gulf states in Oman near $100 per barrel have previously capped crude oil rallies [3]. News of diplomatic efforts can therefore limit upward price momentum, even amid active threats [4].
Houthi threats introduce significant bullish risk to oil markets. Conversely, threats from the Houthis present a bullish risk, primarily due to the potential for a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia [1]. Analysts estimate that a Houthi closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait could force over 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Saudi crude onto longer shipping routes, potentially pushing oil prices above $115-120 per barrel [1]. Recent events such as Houthi advances towards Perim Island, the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, and targeted attacks on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia further contribute to this highly volatile market environment [2].
Market volatility persists, with specific intraday sentiment unconfirmed. This dynamic interplay between diplomatic overtures and military threats creates a highly volatile trading environment [2]. However, specific outcomes or trader sentiment for the November 13, 2026, 7:15-7:30 PM EST window were not explicitly reported in the available research.
Sources (4)
- 1Oil Prices Ease as Mediators Propose US-Iran Ceasefire – Energy Headlinesenergyheadlines.com
- 2Iran to Hold Talks With Gulf Arab States as Mideast Tensions Rise | CommsTradercommstrader.com
- 3Houthi Red Sea blockade would lift oil prices, but workarounds could limit impact | ZAWYAzawya.com
- 4Oil Rally Pauses on Mideast Diplomatic Efforts — TradingView Newstradingview.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The $87.52 15-min WTI target market for November 13, 2026, resolved Yes if the Pyth-verified WTI settlement price at the 7:30 PM EST close was at or above $87.52 [1]. Robinhood's same-day $87.52-target market for 3:00–3:15 AM EST was trading at 95.2¢ for Yes, while a prior $87.52-target market on November 9 resolved No at 39% [1][2]. On November 13, WTI spot traded between $87.77 and $89.66, opening at $88.88 and closing at $88.96 [3]. NYMEX December WTI futures closed at $88.56, down $0.18 (0.20%), marking a second consecutive weekly decline of approximately 2.5% following a 13% drop the prior week [4][5]. The $87.52 target on November 13 sat just above the day's late-session consolidation zone, making the 7:15–7:30 PM EST print sensitive to end-of-day futures positioning and late Iran headlines [4].
Bullish catalysts on November 13 included the US Central Command shooting down two IRGC attack drones aimed at a US base in Bahrain, and Iran denying UN nuclear inspectors access [6]. Houthi forces attacked the Saudi East-West pipeline pumping station, a Yanbu facility, and an Aramco building in Riyadh [6]. Iran's military stated four tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC Navy claiming two additional tankers struck mines and caught fire [6]. October saw 36 confirmed commercial-ship attacks in the Gulf/Hormuz/Oman, the highest since the war began [6]. Further support came from Aramco cutting December Asian crude prices by only $2/bbl, against an expected ~$5 reduction [7].
Conversely, bearish drivers included US crude inventories jumping 9 million barrels in the week ending November 5, significantly above the consensus forecast of a 1 million barrel draw, with distillate stocks surging 4.1 million barrels [7]. The IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast to 102.29 million bpd (-90k bpd) and projected a global surplus of approximately 2 million bpd this quarter, as October supply jumped 2.3 million bpd to 105.4 million bpd [6][5]. Saudi October output rose 970k bpd to 9.2 million bpd (+12% m/m), and OPEC+ held December quotas unchanged after restoring its 1.65 million bpd 2023 cutbacks [6][5][4]. The dollar index hit a 1.5-year high, and post-CPI Fed officials stoked speculation of a half-point December rate hike, which capped US demand [8]. Technically, WTI needed to settle above $87.50–$88.00 resistance (23.6% Fib at $88.04, 200-hour SMA near $89.18) to target $90 then $91.50–92; a break below $87.50 opened $85, then $83–83.50 support [9][10]. Barchart framed $85 as the make-or-break level [11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 14, 2026
- Expiration: November 21, 2026
- Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1November 13, 2026: WTI Oil 15 min · 3:00–3:15 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2WTI Oil 15 min · $87.52 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Crude Oil WTI Spot / US Dollartwelvedata.com
- 4Oil Falls 2nd Week in Row as Iran Uncertainty Continuesdtnpf.com
- 5Oil prices post second straight weekly drop on signs of growing supply surpluscnbc.com
- 6Crude Prices Supported by Concerns US-Iran War Will Lingerfinance.yahoo.com
- 7WTI tumbles to near $87.50 as US inventories jump, geopolitical risks in focusfxstreet.com
- 8Why are Oil prices pulling back if US-Iran peace talks seem dead?fxstreet.com
- 9Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Moves Away From Session Highs | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 10WTI Forecast: Bears hold control below key Fibo. and 200-hour SMAfxstreet.com
- 11Crude Oil Sits on a Make or Break Level as Iran Talks Stall: Will Buyers Defend 85?barchart.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131915-15: NO (Nov 14, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131900-00: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131845-45: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131830-30: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXWTI15M-26NOV131815-15: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
