Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Brad and Tracy to be eliminated from Quarterfinal 2 of America's Got Talent Season 21, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market opened at a 1.0% probability on August 19 before experiencing a significant upward repricing. Within three days, the contract price surged to 94.0% by August 22 and has since consolidated near 97.0%. This price action indicates a swift and decisive shift in market expectations from uncertainty to near-certainty regarding the quarterfinal elimination event. The initial low probability likely reflected the market's opening before the show's live elimination format for the season was confirmed.
The primary catalyst for the price spike appears to be the conclusion of the first quarterfinal round. Live eliminations for Quarterfinal 1 occurred around August 19, establishing the season's procedural format where seven of eleven acts are eliminated. Once this event transpired as expected, the market for the subsequent Quarterfinal 2 elimination priced out the associated uncertainty, driving the probability from 1.0% to over 90%. Total traded volume of 2,608 contracts, with recent activity on August 24, suggests sustained conviction in the market's high probability assessment.
The chart suggests strong market sentiment that the Quarterfinal 2 elimination will proceed as scheduled. The price has established a floor at 1.0% and is currently trading at its effective ceiling of 97.0%. The lack of any significant price pullbacks following the initial surge indicates a firm consensus among participants. The price reflects the view that the show will follow the elimination pattern set in the first week.
  • Brad and Tracy are favorites due to high-stakes physical stunts and danger acts.
  • Nyjah Music and Zyah Rhythm and Butter and Grit showcase distinct musical styles.
  • Veronika Goroshkova is a top Golden Buzzer contender, yet specialty acts face elimination risk.

Current Context

America's Got Talent Season 21 quarterfinals advance four acts to the semifinals each week. Each of the 11 acts performing weekly aims for advancement [1]. One judge awards a live Golden Buzzer, sending an act directly to the finals. The audience votes for three additional acts to advance to the semifinals. The remaining seven acts are eliminated [1]. Quarterfinals began on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, with the first live eliminations occurring around August 19, 2026 [2]. Quarterfinal 1 results concluded with four acts advancing: Olivia Befus, Royal Lasers, and Luke Taleno secured public votes, while Hundred Fingers received the live Golden Buzzer. Seven acts were eliminated from Quarterfinal 1 [1].
Quarterfinal 2 airs August 25, 2026, featuring eleven new acts. The performance episode is scheduled for Tuesday, August 25, 2026, with results announced on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 [1]. The acts performing in Quarterfinal 2 include Bety (singer), Brad and Tracy (sideshow duo), Butter and Grit (vocal duo), Come Here (dance group), Geno Ploeger (magician), LaRussell (rapper), Mackenzie Sol (singer), Nene Royal (singer/guitarist), Nyjah Music and Zyah Rhythm (vocal duo), Patrox (dancer), and Veronika Goroshkova (aerialist) [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1AGT 21's Winners & Eliminations: Quarterfinals Round 1 Resultsnbc.com
  2. 2America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– ) - Newsimdb.com
  3. 3America's Got Talent 21 live show schedule: When will 44 acts perform?goldderby.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Geno Ploeger

📉 August 24, 2026: 82.0pp drop

Price decreased from 91.0% to 9.0%

What happened: Based on the provided web research, there is no evidence verifying the reported 82.0 percentage point price drop for Geno Ploeger in the "America’s Got Talent Season 21: Quarterfinal 2 Elimination" market on August 24, 2026 [1]. Consequently, the available information does not include any social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain such a movement [1]. Without evidence of the described price movement or its causes, social media cannot be assessed as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant.

Outcome: Patrox

📈 August 23, 2026: 75.0pp spike

Price increased from 20.0% to 95.0%

What happened: The provided research does not offer verifiable evidence to confirm a 75.0 percentage point price spike for "Patrox" in the "America's Got Talent Season 21: Quarterfinal 2 Elimination" market on August 23, 2026, or any specific catalyst for such a movement [2]. While Patrox, a German-Brazilian dancer, gained significant social media attention during his audition, with judges noting his potential to go viral [3][4], no specific social media posts, key figure statements, or breaking news from August 23, 2026, are identified that would explain a sudden shift in elimination odds [2]. The Quarterfinal 2 performance aired on August 18, 2026, with results scheduled for August 26, 2026 [5][2]. Therefore, based on the available information, social media cannot be identified as a primary driver of the queried price movement.

Outcome: Nyjah Music and Zyah Rhythm

📈 August 22, 2026: 41.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 51.0%

What happened: The "America's Got Talent Season 21: Quarterfinal 2 Elimination" for Nyjah Music and Zyah Rhythm could not have occurred on August 22, 2026, as Quarterfinal 2 performances were scheduled for August 25, 2026, with results on August 26, 2026 [5][6][7][8]. The provided research does not contain information confirming a 41.0 percentage point price spike on August 22, 2026, for an elimination, nor does it identify any specific social media or traditional news drivers for such a movement [2]. Therefore, the primary driver for the stated market price movement cannot be determined, as the reported event date contradicts the show's actual schedule [2]. Social media was irrelevant, as no event or market movement is confirmed for that date.

Outcome: LaRussell

📈 August 21, 2026: 88.0pp spike

Price increased from 3.0% to 91.0%

What happened: The provided research does not contain information explaining an 88.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for LaRussell on August 21, 2026 [9][10][11][12][13][2][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. While LaRussell is confirmed to participate in America's Got Talent Season 21 Quarterfinal 2, with performances scheduled for August 25, 2026, and results for August 26, 2026, the available sources do not indicate any specific social media activity, news, or market factors influencing the outcome on the specified date [5][22][2]. Therefore, based on the given information, no primary driver for the price movement can be identified, and social media activity was not found to be a factor.
Sources (22)
  1. 1‘America’s Got Talent’ Massive Ratings Drop Ahead Of Finale - IMDbimdb.com
  2. 2NCT 127 Hits 'Kick It' And 'Piñata' Medley on 'AGT': Watchbillboard.com
  3. 3Who is Patrox? 'AGT' 21 judges left confused before German dancer reveals his secret trickmeaww.com
  4. 4America's Got Talent Episode 4 recap: Simon, Mel hit 2nd Golden Buzzersgoldderby.com
  5. 5America's Got Talent: Quarterfinals 2 Results (NBC, Wednesday, August 26, 2026) MEMORABLE TVmemorabletv.com
  6. 6America's Got Talent: Quarterfinals 2 (NBC, Tuesday, August 25, 2026) MEMORABLE TVmemorabletv.com
  7. 7America's Got Talent season 21en.wikipedia.org
  8. 8America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– ) - Episode listimdb.com
  9. 9America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– ) - Episode list - IMDbimdb.com
  10. 10Brook Lynn Impresses With Original Song For ‘AGT’ Quarterfinalsbillboard.com
  11. 11'AGT' Quarterfinals Round 2: See Who Advancesbillboard.com
  12. 12'AGT' Recap: Judges Struggle to Narrow Down Top 44 as Auditions...imdb.com
  13. 13"America's Got Talent" Auditions 3 (TV Episode 2026)imdb.com
  14. 14LaRussell - Newsimdb.com
  15. 15LaRussell | Biography, Music & News | Billboardbillboard.com
  16. 16LaRussell Talks Jay-Z Meeting, Kyrie Irving & Super Bowl LXbillboard.com
  17. 17"Lab Rats" Spike's Got Talent (TV Episode 2013) - Release info - IMDbimdb.com
  18. 18America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– ) - Ratings - IMDbimdb.com
  19. 19"America's Got Talent" Quarterfinals 1 (TV Episode 2025) - IMDbimdb.com
  20. 20Jourdan Blue Earns Golden Buzzer on ‘America’s Got Talent’ Premierebillboard.com
  21. 21‘America’s Got Talent 20’ recap: Mama Duke receives Mel B’s Golden Buzzer during Quarterfinals 2 - IMDbimdb.com
  22. 22AGT Live Voting Results: Season 21 Quarterfinals — Cris Sosa Eliminatedtvline.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The provided content displays market odds for various contestants in the America’s Got Talent Season 21: Quarterfinal 2 Elimination market. However, it does not explicitly state the conditions that trigger a "Yes" or "No" resolution for a contract, nor does it list specific key dates, deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. The only date mentioned is a "Max payout Aug 27, 2026" for the "Brad and Tracy" entry, but this does not appear to be a resolution deadline for the elimination event itself.

Market Discussion

America's Got Talent Season 21 is preparing for its second quarterfinal round, with performances scheduled for August 25, 2026, and no eliminations yet for this round [1]. Quarterfinal 1 concluded on August 19, 2026, with four acts advancing [2][3], and prediction markets are actively assessing various acts for the season [4][5]. Public discussion on social media reveals mixed reactions from fans regarding judge decisions and which acts have advanced so far [6][7][8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1NCT 127 Hits ‘Kick It’ And ‘Piñata’ Medley on ‘AGT’: Watchbillboard.com
  2. 2AGT 21's Winners & Eliminations: Quarterfinals Round 1 Resultsnbc.com
  3. 3'AGT' Quarterfinals 1 results recap: Which 3 acts advanced...goldderby.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/event/americas-got-talent-s21-who-advances-from-quarterfinals-20260812141939500polymarket.com
  5. 5America's Got Talent S21: Who Advances from Quarterfinals?polymarket-insider.com
  6. 6‘AGT’ Fans Confused Over Mel B.’s Golden Buzzer Pick - AOLaol.com
  7. 7r/agtreddit.com
  8. 8America’s Got Talent Keeps Sending the Wrong Acts Through - Reality Tearealitytea.com
  9. 9America’s Got Talent season 21: Judges disagree and give mixed reviews on the act by James and Marinaprimetimer.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Aug 24, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality3
Poor

6. Which Quarterfinal 2 act is the leading contender for the judge's live Golden Buzzer on August 25, 2026?

Primary ContenderVeronika Goroshkova [1][2][3]
Designated JudgeSofía Vergara [2][3]
Event DateAugust 25, 2026 [1][2][3]
Veronika Goroshkova is a top contender for the Quarterfinal 2 Golden Buzzer. She is widely considered the leading candidate for the judge's live Golden Buzzer during America's Got Talent Season 21 Quarterfinal 2, scheduled for August 25, 2026 [1][2][3]. Sofía Vergara has been identified as the judge who may award this live Golden Buzzer [2][3].
Goroshkova's prior Golden Buzzer boosts her contender status. The aerial pole performer previously earned a Golden Buzzer during the audition rounds, which is often an indicator of significant favor from the judges [1][3]. She is one of eleven acts performing in Quarterfinal 2, alongside Bety, Brad & Tracy, Butter & Grit, Come Here, Geno Ploeger, LaRussell, Mackenzie Sol, Nene Royal, Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm, and Patrox [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1America's Got Talent: Quarterfinals 2 Results (NBC, Wednesday, August 26, 2026) MEMORABLE TVmemorabletv.com
  2. 2America's Got Talent: Quarterfinals 2 (NBC, Tuesday, August 25, 2026) MEMORABLE TVmemorabletv.com
  3. 3America's Got Talent 21 live show schedule: When will 44...goldderby.com

7. What does social media sentiment following the August 25 performances indicate about voting outcomes for singers like Mackenzie Sol and LaRussell?

Quarterfinal 2 Performance DateTuesday, August 25, 2026 [1][2]
Quarterfinal 2 Results BroadcastWednesday, August 26, 2026 [3][4]
Mackenzie Sol TikTok Followersover 12 million [5][6]
Mackenzie Sol and LaRussell performed in America's Got Talent Quarterfinal 2. They were among eleven acts featured during Season 21, Quarterfinal 2, which aired on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [1][2]. The performances during this round set the stage for subsequent voting outcomes.
Voting outcomes for advancing acts will be revealed publicly. The results for Quarterfinal 2, determining which acts will proceed to the semifinals, are slated for broadcast on NBC on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 [3][4]. These results will directly reflect the public's votes.
No specific social media sentiment data is currently available. The provided research facts do not include detailed information on social media sentiment for Mackenzie Sol or LaRussell following their August 25, 2026, performances. Therefore, it is not possible to draw conclusions about social media sentiment's impact on their voting outcomes based solely on the existing information.
Sources (6)
  1. 1America's Got Talent 21 live show schedule: When will 44...goldderby.com
  2. 2AGT Live Voting Results: Season 21 Quarterfinals — Cris Sosa Eliminatedtvline.com
  3. 3America's Got Talent: Quarterfinals 2 Results (NBC, Wednesday, August 26, 2026) MEMORABLE TVmemorabletv.com
  4. 4America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– ) - Episode listimdb.com
  5. 5Mackenzie Sol Earns Mel B's Golden Buzzer on 'AGT,' 21 Years After Singing for Simon Cowellmusictimes.com
  6. 6Who Is Mackenzie Sol? 'AGT' Contestant's 'American Idol' Past and More Factstvinsider.com

8. How do the musical duos, Butter and Grit and Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm, compare in terms of audience appeal and vocal performance?

Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm Instagram Followers335K followers [1]
America's Got Talent Quarterfinal DateAugust 25, 2026 [2]
Butter and Grit Primary GenresCountry, soul, gospel, blues, and hip-hop [3]
Both duos showcase distinct musical styles and impressive vocal talents. Butter and Grit, a Nashville-based Country Soul duo, and Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm, brothers from O'ahu, are both recognized for their unique musical contributions and vocal performances within their respective genres [3][4][5]. Both duos are scheduled to compete in America's Got Talent Season 21 Quarterfinal 2 on August 25, 2026 [2].
Each duo cultivates audience appeal through unique identities and artistic approaches. Butter and Grit, comprising vocalist Laurel Taylor and guitarist Luke Michael, are known for their original storytelling and a distinct fusion of country, soul, gospel, blues, and hip-hop [3][6][7]. Their performances, featuring original songs such as 'Sweet South' and 'God Knew,' are noted for eliciting strong audience reactions due to their compelling narratives [3][6]. In contrast, Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm have garnered significant social media interest, including 335K Instagram followers, largely attributed to their identity as brothers and nephews of Bruno Mars [1][8]. They are recognized for their vocal capabilities on tracks such as 'Heartbeat' and 'Daisies' [4][5].
Direct comparison of overall audience appeal and vocal quality is not available. While both duos are celebrated for their vocal performances and distinct audience appeal within their genres, the available research does not provide a direct comparative assessment of the overall magnitude of their audience appeal or a qualitative comparison of their vocal performance against each other.
Sources (8)
  1. 1Three Oʻahu contestants advance to ‘America’s Got Talent’ live showsalohastatedaily.com
  2. 2America's Got Talent 21 live show schedule: When will 44...goldderby.com
  3. 3Butter & Gritbutterandgrit.com
  4. 4Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm Audition | Heartbeat | Week 2 | America's Got Talent 2026 - YouTubeyoutube.com
  5. 5Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm - America's Got Talent Wikiagt.fandom.com
  6. 6Alabama native shines in America's Got Talent debut | The Bama Buzzthebamabuzz.com
  7. 7Alabama singer advances on 'America’s Got Talent': Laurel Taylor of Butter & Grit - Yellowhammer Newsyellowhammernews.com
  8. 8Simon STOPS Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm Mid-Song During...youtube.com

9. How do the performance risks for high-danger acts Brad and Tracy compare to dance group Come Here ahead of the live show?

Brad and Tracy Performance TypeSideshow/extreme danger [1]
Come Here Performance TypeHigh-precision, multi-style dance [2]
America's Got Talent Quarterfinal DateAugust 25, 2026 [3]
Brad and Tracy's high-danger acts involve significant physical risks. This extreme danger duo performs high-stakes physical stunts such as sword swallowing, walking on glass, and piercing [1]. Their performances frequently elicit strong, often polarizing reactions; judge Mel B, in particular, has expressed discomfort and concern regarding the inherent danger presented to the audience [4][5][6].
Come Here presents a different risk profile with precise dance. In contrast, Come Here is a South Korean dance crew celebrated for its high-precision and multi-style choreography [2]. During their auditions, the group received unanimous praise and secured four "yes" votes from the judges [2][7][8][9][10]. The available research does not indicate that Come Here's performances involve physical risks comparable to those of Brad and Tracy.
Both acts are scheduled to perform, highlighting differing risks. Brad and Tracy and Come Here are both slated to appear in America's Got Talent Season 21, Quarterfinal 2, on August 25, 2026 [3]. Brad and Tracy face performance risks associated with extreme danger stunts, which have previously caused discomfort among judges and audience members. In contrast, Come Here's performances, while demanding high precision and skill, do not involve comparable physical risks according to the available information.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Pullman couple shocks judges with AGT act of extreme danger stuntsspokesman.com
  2. 2Watch 'AGT' South Korean Dance Crew Audition that Brings...parade.com
  3. 3America's Got Talent 21 live show schedule: When will 44...goldderby.com
  4. 4'AGT': Retired couple Brad and Tracy's weird act on Season 21 auditions had judges looking awaymeaww.com
  5. 5Extreme danger America's Got Talent act from Pullman move on to live episodesspokesman.com
  6. 6Pullman couple advance in first appearance on ‘America’s Got...lmtribune.com
  7. 7South Korean Dance Troupe 'Come Here' Impresses...aol.com
  8. 8Early Release: Come Here Delivers a FLAWLESS Dance Performance! | Auditions | AGT 2026 - Funane Videosfunane.com
  9. 9Come Here Delivers A FLAWLESS Dance Performance! | Auditions | AGT 2026 Haiden Deegan [rZ527NBE0FP]wrmj.com
  10. 10Come Here | America's Got Talent Wiki - Fandomagt.fandom.com

10. What historical AGT voting data suggests that specialty acts like Veronika Goroshkova or Geno Ploeger face a higher risk of elimination?

Specialty Act DisadvantageFace significant competitive disadvantage in AGT [1][2]
Singing Act DominanceHistorically dominate AGT finalist spots and winners' circles [1][2]
Golden Buzzer ImpactDoes not guarantee victory despite being a strong indicator of success [3][4]
Specialty acts on America's Got Talent consistently face a competitive disadvantage. Historical voting data from America's Got Talent indicates that specialty acts, including aerialists and magicians, encounter a significant competitive disadvantage when compared to singing acts [1][2]. Singing acts have consistently dominated the show's finalist positions and winners' circles, establishing a pattern that suggests specialty acts, such as current Quarterfinalists Veronika Goroshkova and Geno Ploeger, face a higher risk of elimination [1][2][4][5][6][7].
Veronika Goroshkova's Golden Buzzer status does not assure victory. Although aerialist Veronika Goroshkova received a Golden Buzzer, which is typically a strong indicator of potential success, it does not guarantee a win [3][4]. Acts are still required to perform exceptionally during the live Quarterfinal rounds to avoid elimination [3][8][4]. Consequently, despite her Golden Buzzer status, Veronika Goroshkova must still overcome the inherent challenges specialty acts face in garnering sufficient viewer votes against the enduring popularity of musical performers [3][8][4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Do singing acts have an advantage on ‘America’s Got Talent’? It’s been 4 years since Kodi Lee wongoldderby.com
  2. 2America's Got Talent Confronts an Unavoidable Challenge -sjrbss.com
  3. 3How Many Golden Buzzers Have Won AGT?nbc.com
  4. 4AGT Live Voting Results: Season 21 Quarterfinals — Cris Sosa Eliminatedtvline.com
  5. 5Geno Ploeger - America's Got Talent Wiki - Fandomagt.fandom.com
  6. 6Which 'AGT' Acts Are Performing in the Next Live Show?talentrecap.com
  7. 7America's Got Talent season 21en.wikipedia.org
  8. 8The Golden Buzzer on ‘America’s Got Talent’ Used to Mean Something — Now It’s Just a Propcollider.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

America's Got Talent Season 21 Quarterfinal 2 performances are scheduled to air on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. The corresponding elimination results show will air on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 [1][2][3]. Quarterfinal 1 occurred on Tuesday, August 18, 2026 [6]. The season premiered on June 2, 2026, airing weekly on Tuesdays at 8 p.m. ET on NBC [4][7].
The Season 21 live shows involve 44 acts, divided into groups of 11 across four weeks of Quarterfinals [8][1]. Quarterfinal 2 acts include Bety, Brad and Tracy, Butter and Grit, Come Here, Geno Ploeger, LaRussell, Nene Royal, Nyjah Music and Zyah Rhythm, and Veronika Goroshkova [8][1]. During the Quarterfinals, each judge may use a Golden Buzzer to send one act directly to the Finals, with public voting determining which three additional acts advance to the Semifinals [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 03, 2026
  • Closes: August 27, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1America's Got Talent season 21en.wikipedia.org
  2. 2The America's Got Talent Season 21 Schedule For The...aol.com
  3. 3America's Got Talent Next Episode: When Is the Next AGT Episode on NBC?usahousinginformation.com
  4. 4America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– ) - Episode listimdb.com
  5. 5America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– )imdb.com
  6. 6Brook Lynn Impresses With Original Song For ‘AGT’ Quarterfinalsbillboard.com
  7. 7America's Got Talent (TV Series 2006– ) - Newsimdb.com
  8. 8America's Got Talent 21 live show schedule: When will 44 acts perform?goldderby.com
  9. 9Season 21 Quarterfinals | America's Got Talent Wiki - Fandomagt.fandom.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series

Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXAGTELIMINATION-26AUG20B-SAN: YES (Aug 20, 2026)
  • KXAGTELIMINATION-26AUG20B-ROY: NO (Aug 20, 2026)
  • KXAGTELIMINATION-26AUG20B-OLI: NO (Aug 20, 2026)
  • KXAGTELIMINATION-26AUG20B-LUK: NO (Aug 20, 2026)
  • KXAGTELIMINATION-26AUG20B-JES: YES (Aug 20, 2026)