Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?
Short Answer
Howard Lutnick is likely to depart as Commerce Secretary before January 1, 2029. A severe national-security scandal, bipartisan pressure, and the December 10, 2026, Senate Banking Committee testimony drive this outlook, with the market pricing his exit at 89.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's primary movement was a 46 percentage point spike on November 12. This was driven by a Reuters report that senior White House officials were discussing whether to push out Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The discussions reportedly followed the resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and allegations that Lutnick had slow-walked an investigation into the matter. This news immediately repriced the odds of his departure.
Following the initial surge to a high of 70%, the price then pulled back significantly, dropping 19 points on November 13 to settle near 46% by November 15. This retracement is consistent with price action in similar, shorter-term markets on other platforms. For example, a Kalshi contract for Lutnick's departure in 2026 peaked at 47% before settling around 42%. A Polymarket contract also saw a 10-point drop on November 15, though no specific driver was reported for that particular move. The price action suggests the market moderated its initial reaction as it digested the implications of the news.
- Lutnick's departure by 2029 is likely given severe national-security scandal and bipartisan pressure.
- December 10, 2026 testimony may precipitate Lutnick's departure by early 2027.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 20, 2026 | 8.0% | 8.0% | Ongoing national-security scandal, bipartisan pressure, and internal discussions raise departure prospects. |
| Before Nov 26, 2026 | 16.0% | 15.1% | The national-security scandal, bipartisan pressure, and White House discussions increase departure likelihood. |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 19.0% | 17.7% | A severe national-security scandal with bipartisan pressure may lead to an early departure. |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 44.0% | 38.2% | December 10, 2026, Senate testimony is a direct catalyst for departure before year-end. |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 65.0% | 58.2% | December 10, 2026, Senate testimony is a direct catalyst for departure before early 2027. |
Current Context
Howard Lutnick's departure odds jumped following recent Reuters reporting. Kalshi odds for Lutnick to leave the Trump administration in 2026 spiked from 29.2% to 47% in 24 hours after November 12 Reuters reporting, then settled around 42% by November 15 [1]. Polymarket's 'out by Dec 31, 2026' market also stands at 42% Yes (59% No) with $280K volume, though it fell 10 points on November 15 for an unspecified reason [2][3]. On November 12, Reuters reported senior White House officials are discussing whether to push Lutnick out following the Jensen Huang spy scandal [4]. A White House official stated Trump "maintains complete confidence in the secretary," and Lutnick agreed on November 13 to voluntarily testify before the Senate Banking Committee on December 10, 2026 [5][6]. Lutnick currently leads all cabinet exit bets on Kalshi at 57% as of November 13, compared to Hegseth at 15% and Rubio at 9% [7].
The Nvidia scandal escalated political pressure on Lutnick. The controversy centers on Lutnick's failure to add Nvidia customer Megaspeed, linked to alleged Chinese spy Alice Huang, to the Commerce Entity List [1][8][6]. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly criticized Commerce on November 13-14, though Commerce spokesperson Kristen Eichamer denied a reported Situation Room confrontation [1][8][6]. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) posted on November 14 that "Lutnick must go" and his departure is "imperative, & well deserved" [9]. Senator John Kennedy (R-La.) demanded Lutnick explain why advanced chips were sold, while Senator Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) defended him, stating, "We don't need to shoot Howard today" [1][10]. Politico reported on November 12 that seven current and former administration officials see the Nvidia episode as distinct from past efforts to undermine Lutnick, but even critics doubt Trump will turn on his longtime friend given the president's own involvement in chip-export decisions to China [11].
Lutnick has weathered past ouster attempts; market timings are key. A Commerce Department spokesperson told Newsweek in February 2026 that "Secretary Lutnick intends to leave the Commerce Department on January 20, 2029," marking a natural term-end exit as the baseline scenario [12][13]. Earlier 2026 odds of a 2026 exit peaked near 70% during the Epstein files fallout before receding [12]. Lutnick survived Epstein files revelations in February 2026 (Kalshi 'next to leave' odds 8% rising to 28%), a May 6, 2026, closed-door House Oversight deposition that Democrats called dishonest, and April 2026 Politico reports of Trump's anger [12][14][15][16]. Kalshi's monthly contracts for Lutnick's departure before January 1, 2027, are at 48%, rising to 65% before February 1, 2027, and 63% before March 1, 2027, with only ~9% before November 20, 2026, suggesting traders anticipate a mid-2027 departure if he exits early [17]. Key upcoming dates include Senators Warren and Coons' request by November 17, 2026, for Commerce to preserve Nvidia-related records, and Lutnick's Senate Banking Committee testimony on December 10, 2026 [2][5]. An announcement of resignation or removal before December 31, 2026, resolves year-end prediction markets to 'Yes,' even if the effective date is later [2].
Sources (17)
- 1Howard Lutnick's departure odds hit 47% as Jensen Huang exits Nvidianews.kalshi.com
- 2Traders trim bets on Lutnick leaving Commerce by year-end · Mantisreadmantis.com
- 3Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 4White House discussing Howard Lutnick’s future as Commerce secretary, people familiar say By Reutersinvesting.com
- 5Howard Lutnick agrees to testify as bipartisan pressure grows over Nvidia scandalnbcnews.com
- 6Trump sticks by Commerce Secretary Lutnick despite Nvidia inactionaxios.com
- 7Howard Lutnick Leads Cabinet Exit Bets After Nvidia Scrutiny — CEO Frontierceofrontier.com
- 8Trump’s treasury and commerce secretaries feud as Nvidia scandal roils Washingtonnbcnews.com
- 9Richard Blumenthal calls for Howard Lutnick to resignthehill.com
- 10Nvidia fallout fuels questions about Lutnick’s staying power | Semaforsemafor.com
- 11Lutnick’s longtime friendship with Trump may not save him - POLITICOpolitico.com
- 12Howard Lutnick Chances of Leaving Job Spike Amid Epstein Revelations - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 13Howard Lutnick odds of leaving Trump cabinet amid resignation calls - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 14Trump would fire Howard Lutnick if he watched his Epstein testimony, Democrats say | The Independentindependent.co.uk
- 15Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Howard Lutnick Next on Trump's Chopping Block After Pam Bondi? | Times Nowtimesnownews.com
- 16Epstein Files Put Pressure on Lutnick as Commerce Secretary Holds Position - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 17Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? Odds & Predictions 2029kalshi.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before Jul 1, 2027
📉 November 15, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 88.0% to 74.0%
What happened: The 14.0 percentage point drop on November 15, 2026, was primarily driven by a market reassessment of the immediate likelihood of Howard Lutnick's departure, largely due to traditional news and announcements. Lutnick's proactive agreement on November 14, 2026, to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on December 10, 2026, signaled his intent to defend his position rather than resign, reducing the perceived probability of an imminent exit [1][2]. This was reinforced by the White House's continued public statement on November 12, 2026, affirming President Trump 'maintains complete confidence in the secretary' [3][4]. While Senator Richard Blumenthal posted "Lutnick must go" on social media on November 14, 2026, this activity called for departure and therefore ran contrary to the price movement, indicating social media was mostly noise in relation to this specific drop [1].
Outcome: Before Jul 1, 2028
📉 November 14, 2026: 77.0pp drop
Price decreased from 97.0% to 20.0%
What happened: The substantial 77.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on November 14, 2026, indicating a significantly decreased likelihood of Howard Lutnick's departure, primarily stemmed from President Trump's strong public defense and a White House official's explicit statement of "complete confidence" in Lutnick on Thursday, November 12 [5]. This traditional news and official stance appears to have outweighed the mounting political pressure from a "catalyst cluster" on November 14, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments and attacks from MAGA shows [6][7]. While Sen. Richard Blumenthal posted on social media calling for Lutnick's resignation on November 14 [1], this social media activity would typically increase, not decrease, the odds of his departure. Therefore, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific downward price movement, with traditional news serving as the primary driver.
Outcome: Before Feb 1, 2027
📉 November 13, 2026: 24.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 61.0%
What happened: The 24.0 percentage point drop in Howard Lutnick's departure odds, as observed in the query, is consistent with a pullback from a November 13 peak for shorter-term contracts, occurring by November 15 [8]. While prediction markets for Lutnick's departure by Jan 1, 2027, rose to 47% on November 13 following Reuters and Axios reports of his potential ouster [9][10][11], the subsequent decline was primarily driven by traditional news reports on November 14 [8]. These reports detailed former President Trump's public defense of Lutnick and the Commerce Department's denial of a Situation Room confrontation [11][6][12]. Social media activity, including Sen. Richard Blumenthal posting "Lutnick must go," intensified calls for resignation but was a contributing accelerant to overall pressure, not the primary driver of this specific price drop [6][1].
📈 November 12, 2026: 70.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 71.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the significant price movement on November 12, 2026, was the breaking news surrounding the Nvidia-China scandal and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's alleged role in it [9]. Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO on November 12, coupled with reports of Lutnick slow-walking the addition of the China-linked company Megaspeed to the Entity List and a White House confrontation over the issue, directly impacted market expectations for Lutnick's departure [9]. Reports on November 12 also indicated President Trump was "considering sacking Lutnick" in light of the scandal [13]. While social media amplified the narrative, key posts from Sen. Blumenthal and MAGA attacks appeared on November 14, suggesting social media was a contributing accelerant to sustained pressure rather than the primary driver of the initial November 12 spike [1].
Sources (13)
- 1Richard Blumenthal calls for Howard Lutnick to resignthehill.com
- 2Howard Lutnick agrees to testify as bipartisan pressure grows over Nvidia scandalnbcnews.com
- 3White House discussing Howard Lutnick’s future as Commerce secretary, people familiar say By Reutersinvesting.com
- 4Trump sticks by Commerce Secretary Lutnick despite Nvidia inactionaxios.com
- 5'President maintains complete confidence in him': White House official on commerce secy Lutnick amid Nvidia 'spy' scandal - The Times of Indiatimesofindia.indiatimes.com
- 6MAGA turns on Lutnick amid China spy scandalaxios.com
- 7Trump’s treasury and commerce secretaries feud as Nvidia scandal roils Washingtonnbcnews.com
- 8Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 9Howard Lutnick's departure odds hit 47% as Jensen Huang exits Nvidianews.kalshi.com
- 10White House considers Lutnick’s ouster after Nvidia scandal, Reuters reportsmarkets.businessinsider.com
- 11Prediction Markets Put Lutnick’s Exit Odds at 47% by Jan. 1, 2027 | TokenPosttokenpost.com
- 12Bessent blames Lutnick’s Commerce, slams Nvidia chip China leakagecnbc.com
- 13Trump ‘considering sacking Lutnick’ in wake of Nvidia scandaltelegraph.co.uk
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Howard Lutnick is no longer the Commerce Secretary before the specified deadline for each sub-market (e.g., before January 1, 2027; before February 1, 2027; before March 1, 2027). Conversely, it resolves NO if he remains in the position or is not removed by the respective deadline. No special settlement conditions are explicitly stated beyond these date-based triggers, with the maximum payout date noted as December 31, 2028.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 20, 2026 | $0.08 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Before Nov 26, 2026 | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $0.20 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.44 | $0.58 | 44% |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $0.63 | $0.38 | 65% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0.62 | $0.39 | 63% |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | $0.73 | $0.28 | 71% |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | $0.75 | $0.28 | 74% |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | $0.80 | $0.31 | 82% |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0.88 | $0.18 | 29% |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | $0.92 | $0.15 | 20% |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | $0.95 | $0.12 | 89% |
Market Discussion
Traders currently price Howard Lutnick's departure as Commerce Secretary at 65% by February 1, 2027, and 63% by March 1, 2027, though the probability is lower (44%) for him leaving before January 1, 2027. The main argument for "Yes" centers on Senator Blumenthal's demand for Lutnick to resign over Nvidia chip oversight. However, "Yes" probabilities for all deadlines have recently seen slight decreases, indicating a softening in market confidence regarding his near-term exit.
5. Trust Index
“KXLUTNICKOUT 26SEP 28JUL01” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
Trust score capped by Market integrity (19).
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score45High Risk
Trade quality20% of score70Good
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend50overridden
Safety capMarket integrity40High Risk
Market integrity 19 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.
Trust profile
Integrity6 screens run · 1 doesn't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. Based on historical precedent, how has President Trump typically handled cabinet members like Lutnick who are embroiled in public scandals but are also long-time friends?
| Lutnick survived prior scandal | February 10, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| White House statement on Lutnick | Maintains 'complete confidence' (November 12, 2026) [2][1] |
| Market implied chance of Lutnick staying | ~58% (November 13, 2026) [2][1] |
President Trump often supports long-time friends facing public scandals. His historical approach to cabinet members embroiled in controversy is mixed, though he sometimes maintains support for loyalists [1][3]. A direct precedent involves Howard Lutnick, a friend of over 30 years, who survived a major scandal on February 10, 2026, despite bipartisan calls for his resignation [1]. More recently, on November 12, 2026, the White House affirmed Trump's 'complete confidence' in Lutnick, with Trump reportedly encouraging Nvidia's Jensen Huang to resist his removal two days prior [2][1]. This strong backing, combined with their decades-old friendship, contributes to the market's implied view, as of November 13, 2026, that traders assign Lutnick approximately a 58% chance of retaining his position through the current scandal [2][1].
However, Trump has a history of abrupt, unannounced firings. His tenure also includes instances of sudden dismissals, such as those of Noem on March 5, 2026, and Bondi on April 2, 2026 [1][3]. While he has previously retained scandal-embroiled loyalists, the phrase 'complete confidence' has, on occasion, preceded departures, and Trump has publicly supported officials before ultimately removing them, as seen with Rumsfeld in 2006 [1][3]. As of November 13, 2026, Trump's advisors are actively discussing Lutnick's potential dismissal in light of the Nvidia/Megaspeed chip-export scandal, with Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly attributing blame to Commerce on television [3].
Sources (3)
- 1Will Howard Lutnick be out as Commerce Secretary before Jan 1, 2027? | Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
- 2Howard Lutnick will face senators over Nvidia's China chips. Republicans are now asking the hardest questions — Future Timesfuturetimes.cloud
- 3Bessent Blames Lutnick on TV: Kalshi at 47% on Ousterpredictionauthority.com
7. What evidence supports the 'baseline scenario' that Howard Lutnick will remain Commerce Secretary through the end of the Trump administration in 2029?
| White House Confidence Statement | Nov 12, 2026 (Trump 'maintains complete confidence' in Lutnick) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Successor/Firing Demands Status | As of Nov 13–15, 2026, no successor reported, no GOP lawmaker demanded firing [1][2] |
| Prior Resignation Demands | May 2026 (21 House Oversight Democrats demanded resignation) [1][2] |
The baseline scenario posits Howard Lutnick's continued tenure as Commerce Secretary. This prediction holds that he will remain in the position through the end of the Trump administration in 2029, primarily supported by expressions of confidence from the White House and his well-established relationship with President Trump [1][2]. As of November 13–15, 2026, no successor has been reported, nor has any GOP lawmaker explicitly called for his removal [1][2]. A White House official confirmed on November 12, 2026, that President Trump "maintains complete confidence" in Lutnick, underscoring their long-standing friendship [1][2].
Lutnick has navigated past challenges and maintains significant support. He previously resisted calls for his resignation in May 2026, which followed an interview related to Epstein and prompted all 21 House Oversight Democrats to demand his departure on May 14, 2026 [1][2]. More recently, the Commerce Department publicly refuted reports of a disagreement with Treasury Secretary Bessent regarding Megaspeed, labeling them "false" [1]. While Representatives Jim Banks, Kevin Cramer, and Senator John Kennedy have requested Lutnick's testimony, several Republican figures, including Senators Jim Justice, Rick Scott, and Mike Rounds, have advocated for a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of awaiting factual information. House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast continues to express support for Lutnick [1].
8. How does the political pressure on Howard Lutnick from the current Nvidia/Megaspeed scandal compare to the fallout from the Epstein files revelations in February 2026?
| Epstein Scandal Pressure | Democratic-only, Trump 'fully supports' Lutnick [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Megaspeed Scandal Pressure | Bipartisan, national-security enforcement failure [1][2][3] |
| Lutnick Exit Likelihood | 40.5% as likeliest cabinet member to leave before 2027 [2][3] |
The political pressure on Howard Lutnick stemming from the current Nvidia/Megaspeed scandal is notably more severe than the fallout from the Epstein files revelations in February 2026 [1][2][3]. The Epstein episode was characterized primarily as a personal-conduct and reputational scandal, with pressure exclusively from Democrats. Lutnick ultimately navigated this period successfully, retaining his position due to public support from the White House, and Kalshi contracts regarding his potential exit resolved as "No" [1][2][3][4]. In stark contrast, the Megaspeed incident in November 2026 is viewed as a national-security enforcement failure, which has generated bipartisan pressure and signals a potential removal from the White House [1][2][3].
The Megaspeed scandal has escalated rapidly, prompting Lutnick's impending Senate testimony. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated that the Commerce Department was solely responsible for failing to add Singapore-based Megaspeed to the export-control entity list, a move that was supported by other key departments [1]. This development has led to Lutnick agreeing to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on December 10, 2026, amid demands for testimony from Republicans, including Senators Jim Banks, Kevin Cramer, and John Kennedy [1][2][5]. Senators Richard Blumenthal and Elizabeth Warren have called for his removal [1][2][5]. Reports from Reuters, CNN, and Politico indicate the White House is actively considering Lutnick's removal [1][2][3][5][6][7]. The perceived likelihood of his departure has significantly increased, with Kalshi's "Lutnick out" market, predicting an exit before January 1, 2027, reaching 47% and peaking at 57% [1][2][3][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Bessent Blames Lutnick on TV: Kalshi at 47% on Ousterpredictionauthority.com
- 2Howard Lutnick will face senators over Nvidia's China chips. Republicans are now asking the hardest questions — Future Timesfuturetimes.cloud
- 3Will Howard Lutnick be out as Commerce Secretary before Jan 1, 2027? | Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
- 4Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 6Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? on Kalshi: the odds, the fee, and how much luck you needpredictmenot.com
- 7Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
9. What is the confirmed timeline of key dates and deadlines from November 2026 to March 2027 related to the Senate's investigation into the Commerce Department?
| Jensen Huang Session Request | December 3, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Howard Lutnick Testimony Request | December 10, 2026 [1][2] |
| Lutnick Testimony Confirmation | November 13, 2026 [2] |
The Senate's Commerce Department investigation planned key December 2026 engagements. The Senate Banking Committee requested a session for Jensen Huang on December 3, 2026, and also requested public testimony from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on December 10, 2026 [1][2]. Secretary Lutnick's spokeswoman, Kristen Eichamer, confirmed on November 13, 2026, that Secretary Lutnick "proactively agreed to appear voluntarily" for his scheduled December 10 testimony [2].
Confirmed events concluded with December 2026 testimony, lacking later announcements. Beyond Secretary Lutnick's December 10, 2026 testimony, no further confirmed Senate hearing dates, subpoena deadlines, or investigation milestones have been publicly announced for the period of January through March 2027 [2].
10. What specific outcomes from Howard Lutnick's Senate Banking Committee testimony on December 10, 2026, could precipitate his departure?
| Hearing Date | December 10, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Potential Departure Deadline | Before December 31 [1] |
| Key Hearing Concern | Unexplained export control loopholes [2][3] |
Howard Lutnick's future hinges on a December 10 Senate hearing. Howard Lutnick's potential departure from his position is directly linked to the outcome of a Senate Banking Committee hearing scheduled for December 10, 2026 [1]. A negative performance or outcome at this hearing could precipitate his removal by former President Trump or his immediate resignation before December 31 [1].
Several critical issues could undermine Lutnick's testimony before the committee. A "bad" hearing for Lutnick could stem from several factors, including his failure to adequately explain why export control loopholes remain unclosed, a concern specifically highlighted by Elizabeth Warren [2][3]. Further detrimental factors include an inadequate explanation regarding the Department of Commerce's role in recent public reports concerning NVIDIA and national security, or a failure to justify stalled actions against firms suspected of diverting NVIDIA chips to China [1][2]. His performance could also suffer if Megaspeed is not added to the Entity List before December 10, especially when combined with a poor hearing [2]. Additionally, an unsuccessful attempt by Commerce to deflect blame to Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler could worsen Lutnick's situation [1].
Sources (3)
- 1Will Howard Lutnick be out as Commerce Secretary before Jan 1, 2027? | Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
- 2Howard Lutnick will face senators over Nvidia's China chips. Republicans are now asking the hardest questions — Future Timesfuturetimes.cloud
- 3Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts and Market Probabilities
Prediction markets show significant volatility in Howard Lutnick's tenure as Commerce Secretary. On November 15, Kalshi's 'Before Jan 1, 2029' contract traded at 89¢ on predictionsmarket.com and 98¢ on Public.com/4Search, marking a 9¢ drop in 24 hours on the 89¢ book [1][2][3]. The total event volume on Public.com reached $279,208.56 [1]. Polymarket's 'out as Secretary of Commerce by Dec 31, 2026' contract indicates a 42% Yes probability as of November 15, 2026, with $280K in total volume [4]. This specific market resolves on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [4]. Broader sentiment on Polymarket saw the 'leaves Trump administration by Dec 31' contract swing from 13% on November 10 to 67% on November 13, settling at 43% by November 14 [5]. Manifold's long-term market places Lutnick's odds to resign or be fired during Trump's 2025-2029 term at 82% [6].
Pressure mounted following Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO on November 12, 2026, amid the Megaspeed chip-sale controversy [7]. On the same day, Reuters reported senior White House officials discussing Lutnick's removal [8]. This led to a surge in 'next cabinet out' predictions, with Lutnick's odds increasing from 2% on November 9, 2026, to 49% by November 13, 2026, and reaching 69% on Kalshi by November 15 [9][7][10]. Key upcoming dates include Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott's request for Lutnick's testimony on December 10, 2026 [9]. Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly confronted Lutnick over the Megaspeed Entity List, though Commerce denied this [7][11]. Senators Blumenthal and Kennedy have called for Lutnick's dismissal, with Democrats also finalizing oversight plans related to Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, and Epstein ties [11]. Conversely, a White House official stated Trump 'maintains complete confidence in the secretary' [8], and most GOP officials are defending him, citing Commerce Department achievements like $76.4B in tariff revenue and 20 major trade deals [11][12]. Lutnick agreed to testify voluntarily before the Senate Commerce Committee [11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 27, 2026
- Closes: January 01, 2029
Sources (12)
- 1Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary? (Before Jan 2029): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
- 3Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
- 4Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Traders put Lutnick's exit odds at 43% after a week of swings | The Rumpustherumpus.ai
- 6What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
- 7Howard Lutnick's departure odds hit 47% as Jensen Huang exits Nvidianews.kalshi.com
- 8White House discussing Howard Lutnick’s future as Commerce secretary, people familiar say By Reutersinvesting.com
- 9All Eyes on Lutnickpredictit.org
- 10Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 11Nvidia fallout fuels questions about Lutnick’s staying power | Semaforsemafor.com
- 12Will Howard Lutnick Leave as Commerce Secretary by Year-End? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
