Episode summary
Brian Belski Returns! | TCAF 249
Ask The Compound
· · 1 hr 16 min · Hosts: Michael Batnick, Josh Brown · Guests: Brian Belski
Summary
Brian Belski said the market is still bullish, but the next phase should be choppier because earnings growth is likely to slow from the very strong pace investors have already priced in. He argued that this does not break the bull case; instead, it supports a broadening trade away from the mega-cap tech names and toward smaller and mid-cap stocks, regional banks, exchanges, and selective software. He expects stocks to be higher by year-end, but not in a straight line.
Key takeaways
- Brian Belski expects S&P 500 earnings growth to slow from roughly 25% toward 20%, which he thinks could trigger volatility even if the market finishes higher.
- Belski says the market’s leadership is broadening beyond the MAG 7 into SMID, regional banks, and other cyclicals, especially as earnings and valuation matter more.
- He sees Microsoft and Oracle as attractive despite recent weakness, and he thinks Oracle’s selloff is tied to AI-related fears rather than fundamentals.
- Belski thinks regional bank consolidation will continue and that smaller banks in faster-growing regions can keep taking share from larger lenders.
- He says the current bull cycle could be more volatile in year four, but still has 7 to 10 years left in the secular trend.
Notable quotes
“We're still bullish, but I think the headline would be beware of the second derivative less positive”
“I think stocks are higher. How about this? Stocks are at all-time highs at year end”
“the broadening out trade and more normalization and all this kind of stuff”
“I think we're going to have a recession at some point”
How the episode opens
We're on the record now. — We're on the record now. Okay, we're on the record. — So, Brian, yeah. — Um, — The last time we were here was November. Feels like a long time ago. — It was three It was It was three days after I launched Humalless.
Come on. — Yeah, man. — Yeah. — You guys did a special live thing with me. I knew it on uh — Well, you can't you can't have as long of a career as you've had without being right a few times. You got to get something's right. And you have
Got to get some things right. Get a lot of stuff wrong. — So, check this out. So, um, Felski calls, — Yeah, — Reiterated his 2025 S&P target of 7,000, but whatever. More importantly, pushes back on the AI bubble label on MAG 7,
Increasingly uncorrelated earnings reactions among the group. Um, you saw dispersion there. You expected the performance to broaden out beyond mega cap into AI into value, dividend growth in small and mid. — Great call, Brian. And uh you saw regional bank M&A as midsize banks. Uh so whatever you favored a barbell. Sean said he actually nailed it.
Yeah. — Like he — Well, Sean, Mr. You nailed it, which is important. — You really did. That was good stuff. — Thank you. Thank you. — It was good stuff. — It's Do you want to thank Do you want to thank anyone? — You know, every time I say something on there's still and I try my best now when I'm on the show, I don't say thanks for having us. I don't say that anymore because I got so much crap from Wapner. And
Why why boil us?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market leadership
- tech stock rotation
- smid
- market volatility
- saas no saaspocalypse
Companies and tickers mentioned
- META
- Meta
Watch the episode
Watch “Brian Belski Returns! | TCAF 249” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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