Episode summary
How Much Longer Will the Bull Market Last?
Ask The Compound
· · Hosts: Ben Carlson, Duncan Hill · Guests: Jurrien Timmer
Summary
Jurrien Timmer argued that the current cyclical bull market began in October 2022, even if the broader secular bull market could be dated to 2009 or 2013 depending on how valuations and trend lines are measured. He said the short 21% decline in March and April 2025 did not qualify as a bear market, and he characterized today’s environment as an aging but still intact uptrend rather than a finished cycle.
On AI, Timmer said the market looks more like 1999 than 1996, but he does not think it is a bubble yet because the biggest winners still have real earnings and valuations are not at the extremes seen in the dot-com era. He argued that speculative corners are frothy, but the major leaders, especially Nvidia and the MAG 7, are not yet priced like Cisco in 2000.
On inflation, Timmer said 3% may be the new 2% in a world of looser fiscal policy, deglobalization, and firmer nominal growth. He also said 60/40 is not dead, but higher inflation and higher correlation between stocks and bonds justify thinking more carefully about diversifiers like gold, managed futures, T-bills, and other uncorrelated assets. The labor market slowdown, he said, has not yet shown up in credit because earnings, margins, and cash flow remain strong.
Key takeaways
- Jurrien Timmer said the cyclical bull market is 38 months old and started in October 2022, while the secular bull could still trace back to 2009 or 2013.
- Timmer said AI looks more like the 1999 phase of the dot-com boom than 1996, but he does not call it a bubble yet because valuations in the largest leaders are not extreme.
- Timmer said 3% inflation may be the new normal and that the bond market should care more than the stock market if inflation settles above the Fed’s 2% target.
- Timmer argued 60/40 is still viable, but higher stock-bond correlation means investors may need diversifiers such as gold, managed futures, T-bills, or other uncorrelated strategies.
- Timmer said the labor market is softening, but credit markets are not worried because corporate earnings, margins, and free cash flow remain solid.
Notable quotes
“I think the bull market is now 38 months old and before then we had one you know from COVID to 20 late 2021”
“my guess is that, you know, we are kind of on that 1999 timeline”
“for me, it's not a bubble”
How the episode opens
Welcome. This is Ask the Compound, the show where you ask and we try to provide the answers. I'm your host, Ben Carlson.
Some say the bull market started in 2009 at the bottom. That's what I say. Uh others say, "No, no, no.
There's a reset in 2020 or 2022 in the bare markets. Um this is a new bull market. Regardless of when you think it started, the biggest question is how much longer does it have to run?
We're going to dig into this question and more on today's show. Let's do it. All right, if you have a question for us, email askthe compound show@gmail.com.
On today's show, we're tackling questions all about the length of bull markets, an update on the AI bubble timeline, where the inflation rate is heading, is 60/40 portfolio dead again, why the bond market doesn't care about the slowing labor market, dot dot dot yet. Uh, we have a very special guest coming on to help answer all these questions, and any questions you might have in the chat. We already pulled a few.
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From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- bull market cycle
- ai bubble comparison
- inflation level
- portfolio allocation
- financial markets sentiment
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Grayscale
- Fidelity
Watch the episode
Watch “How Much Longer Will the Bull Market Last?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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